Covid Cornea

Covid Cornea

Less developed societies register less sickness from Covid-19 than developed societies. The science is mounting particularly from Africa and leading to considerations that achieving “herd immunity” is the best path forward for less developed countries.

The more and better you look, the more you find. South Africa and Morocco, for example which are pretty developed countries, report virus impacts more similar to Europe than Kenya or Cameroon. On the other hand, there are intriguing anti-body studies in sub-Saharan Africa which suggest something more might be at work protecting Africa.

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Covid Conclusion

Covid Conclusion

When Americans might travel to sub-Saharan Africa is covered in two reports available today, one from a consortium of American scientists and one from the South African government.

I remain personally convinced that our travel abroad will be dictated by when we are vaccinated and for most EWT-type travelers this will be in the first few months of 2021. The South Africans disagree on two fronts. First, they believe they can provide safe tourist services before a vaccine is available, and second, they do not project American travelers will be vaccinated before July, 2022, at the earliest.

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Election Ghosts

Election Ghosts

Illinois and Iowa friends, please use the following links NOW to organize your vote. Illinois friends in particular, don’t be negligent because our state is historically Democratic. There are other forces unguided by history.

As this and many more apps came on-line last week, I started thinking of the terrifying election experience I lived through in South Africa nearly twenty years ago.

These apps are good. They won’t guarantee your vote but like travel insurance they lower your risks against being uncounted. One addendum: take a picture of your filled-in ballot. Whether you mail it in or actually vote in person, create evidence that no one can ever take from you. From us.

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Covid Construct

Covid Construct

The enthusiasm bubble is bursting. Tomorrow most of East Africa will be open for business. But… no one’s coming.

My African colleagues shouldn’t be too disheartened. It was always too hopeful to believe that the only thing keeping people back was government restriction. Two things need to be clearly understood: the current reality of the pandemic and how profoundly it will change future travel.

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African Digs

African Digs

For my African friends. Well… all my friends, and especially for those who live near Galena, Illinois.

Currently I don’t have potable water. Why I don’t have potable water reflects America today, dysfunctional and imploding. It’s sad and infuriating but for those of us who have lived much of our lives in places like Africa, it’s also very telling.

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Getting Ready

Getting Ready

It will probably be three to four years before the effects of the virus stop impacting travelers to distant lands. Efficacy of the vaccines, mayhem in airline schedules, widely differing and radical airport rules for transfers and most importantly, the hugely damaged vendor communities are all just now being recognized as the travelers’ principle hurdles.

There’s little good evidence yet on the last three hurdles for a good prediction into 2021, although I venture some speculation below. On the vaccine issue, however, some things are coming into focus.

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Covid Community

Covid Community

“White population(s) used political power and security forces to maintain slavery, segregation, racism, and marginalisation,” all over the world writes Abdi I Samatar in today’s South Africa Daily Maverick.

When the Black Lives Matter demonstrations took off the beginning of this month it wasn’t long before disruptive but peaceful protests occurred in Kenya and South Africa. While they have mostly died away, the buzz continues.

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Corona Cascade

Corona Cascade

Shifting alliances is an African political art, something we all need to study in the era America is racing through right now.

More than 1500 people were brutally killed in the several-month Kenyan civil war of 2008, thousands more tortured or maimed and nearly 200,000 displaced. Yet less than four years later the widows and widowers, orphaned children and homeless thousands elected as their leader the man who tried to kill them and their families.

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Corona Crests

Corona Crests

This blog is about travel prospects to sub-Saharan Africa, but in preparing it my jaw dropped.

South Africa has a sixth the population of the United States but has tested a million of its people. Comparatively that’s two to three times better than the U.S.

The U.S. handling of the pandemic is a chaotic mess. South Africa and other countries know this, and it’s why the prospects for Americans traveling to Africa is getting worse and worse.

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Corona Contracts

Corona Contracts

Lions hunt because they’re hungry, and I’ve often listened to excited clients posit why a pair of fit hunters just missed a take-down: They were “too desperate.” I smile wanly to myself. Wild animals’ every moment is one of desperation.

Never, though, has any lion displayed the level of desperation found today among African safari companies trying to survive this virus. We knew many wouldn’t make it. We didn’t know it would be suicide.

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Corona Collapse

Corona Collapse

I can’t convince myself there will be a second wave. I can’t convince myself that a vaccine will be available the first of next year. I guess in fact I can’t convince myself of much. Except one thing: African tourism is imploding so severely that it will gut the global market for safaris for decades to come.

Half of the 2019 African tourism will not exist in a year. By the end of 2021 there will be an unprecedented transformation rolling back decades of trends. (More on this later this week.)

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Covid Calc

Covid Calc

Strict government actions in Africa to protect the population against Covid-19 make America’s actions look like a slap-on-the-wrist. Who’s right?

Today America errs on the side of economics over optimal minimizing of the infection. It’s absolutely the reverse in Africa. Is this just a difference of perception? Or morality? Is it a realistic debate over long-term well-being? Or something much more insidious, such as the personal well-being of our leaders?

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