What 9-11 Means to Me & Africa

What 9-11 Means to Me & Africa


Nine Eleven was a day of reflection, but in Kenya where I am it exploded. A British tourist was murdered and his wife kidnaped in the far north as southern Somalia imploded further, and Kenya desperately appealed to U.S. Republicans not to undermine its development by making it the victim of the U.S. budget crisis.

It’s all inextricably linked. It might be complicated, and that may be its nemesis with the simple minds of the Tea Party, and there’s too much here for a single blog. Tomorrow I’ll be less ideological and more news specific, but today I want to counter the empathy of yesterday with the horrible reality of the last decade as seen outside the U.S.

Sitting here in a luxury hotel in Nairobi with CNN on during all my waking hours, it’s hard to argue that a clearer perspective is achieved further from home. But it is. The travel through multiple countries and airports, the fellow passengers from all distant parts of the world in stimulating conversation, the foreign newspaper headlines and the incessant chat of the local taxi driver. It takes you far away from the repetitive and often circular news surrounding us in the U.S.

And besides, even CNN isn’t the same. CNN has been fine tuned to its customers worldwide for decades. It’s not the same in China as Dubuque, London or Nairobi. Worldwide, one of its most respected anchors is Jim Clancy, and click here for his own reflections, quite similar to my own. You won’t see this in the U.S.

Let me be so bold as to summarize the rest of the world’s views about Nine Eleven this way: If the U.S. didn’t exercise its power and express its grief militarily, the world – and the U.S. – would be much better off.

To the rest of the world yesterday marked not so much a stabbing memory of abject loss as a tedious decade of wrongdoing.

The number of people who have been killed in military violence this past decade far far exceeds those killed in the initial airplane hijack attacks. Perhaps a third of a million in Pakistan and Afghanistan alone, and hundreds of thousands in Iraq. And these aren’t principally soldiers, but civilians caught in the cross fires of ideology.

Any American who watches the film “United 93” immediately wonders why is this a British and not an American film. It’s the only concise documentary of the bungling of U.S. defense on that day, how probably three of the 4 plane crashes could have been minimized, if only someone in authority could have been found.

This is a British film, not an American one, because Americans seem incapable of admitting this mistake. No American would dare produce it. Watch it.

And this ineptitude was followed by the moral degeneration of a giant reacting to a flea bite by sledge hammering the ground around him, blindly and randomly.

There is no doubt that al-Qaeda targeted us. There is no doubt it was an inept attempt, because al-Qaeda is inept. But al-Qaeda is crazy and dangerous albeit inept, and we knew this years before they acted. We refused to deal with them as deranged, the same way we avoid dealing with our own mentally challenged individuals.

And when they finally ‘lucked out’ we were defenseless.

Thank goodness it wasn’t the Joker or an alien invasion or trained mercenaries from the Comoros, or we might currently be under a foreign military dictatorship. No President or Vice President or other chief political officer could be found to give cogent orders, or perhaps they weren’t found because there weren’t cogent orders to give. Planes that were scrambled flew off in the wrong directions, unarmed.

Our “Homeland Defense” up until September 11, 2001, was to believe we were invincible simply by maintaining nuclear arsenals and giant battleships.

The rest of the world, Europe in particular following the Balkan wars, realized that peace is created by development not destruction.

But we have never nurtured goodwill with the same enthusiasm we nurture military superiority. I think we reacted like the giant squashing the flea not so much to being attacked, as to our own inability to defend against those attacks in any other way. And like a humiliated bully with no social skills, we started scorching the Mideast.

(If oil as the unspoken booty didn’t exist, possibly we couldn’t have mustered the rationalizing to pursue it. But there is oil, there. And oil is needed for the bomber planes.)

And now to today. Sunday talk shows seemed horrified that the Super Committee will be deadlocked and the military required to take a 10% hit. What’s going on? In Africa we have committed 9 billion over ten years to help their medical development. And just before our Nine Eleven celebrations, they were advised this promise might not be kept.

Why might we renege? Because we need that 9 billion for a couple months of war in Afghanistan.

Instead of a decade of improving the health of a billion Africans who are actually on the frontline against terrorism and who are rapidly becoming an economic powerhouse, customers for our iPhones.

I see no starker comment on how wrong we continue to be.

Will Kibaki Lead Obama?

Will Kibaki Lead Obama?

President Obama can learn something from President Kibaki. Kibaki has a plan, a bold and risky one to be sure, but one what that might solve an urgent Kenyan problem. Did you hear that, Obama? Bold. If risky, bold?! To solve a problem?

Yesterday Kenya’s two leaders, President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, together warmly welcomed the U.S. Vice-President’s wife, Jill Biden. Dr. Biden was in Kenya to assess the growing famine and refugee problem in Kenya’s north and Somalia.

That problem is spiraling into a serious catastrophe, even as rain falls. As I’ve written many times in this blog, the famine is not mainly a result of drought, but of the increasing war in Somalia.

Today, one of the most reliable news sources for Somalia (actually based in the U.K.), Shebele News, reported that “calm returned to the Mogadishu city as almost of its districts are in the hands of Somali forces after Al shabaab fled the capital.”

While gauging the fight in Mogadishu is very difficult, I think because al-Shabaab also claimed the opposite, that we can believe the former. Al-Shabaab rarely makes any statements, and this rout of the Somali capital would be the latest in a number of setbacks for them.

Presuming this situation to be true, it definitely gives President Kibaki an opportunity to do something bold, and he has done so.

Yesterday he told Dr. Biden that Kenya would enter sovereign Somali territory to “set up feeding camps” there.

Not quite an invasion, but close. And offering to do something this radical would help to move the problem a little further away from sovereign Kenya. It would also give cover to the international aid agencies and donor countries who dare not appear to invade any new place right now.

The risk is that all of our assessments of the weakened state of al-Shabaab are incorrect. It was al-Shabaab that bombed two bars in Kampala last fall, killing nearly 80 people, in retaliation for Uganda’s support of the African forces in Mogadishu.

So this is risky. And what’s more, normally such a national policy would require Parliament to sign off on at least the funding. But Kibaki, like Obama, is not exactly on the friendliest terms with his legislature.

But Kibaki, unlike Obama, is grabbing the reins and whipping the horses into action. Nonaction is not an option. He is leading, and leading is risking, will always be challenged by those who don’t want to follow, and must often pierce sovereign territory.

Kibaki should be wildly applauded.

Perhaps, Dr. Biden can find a moment in her busy schedule when she gets back to chat with Obama.

Of The Thousands Who Try …

Of The Thousands Who Try …

It’s hard to imagine the personal stories of the Somalis fleeing their homeland. And contrary to popular opinion, they aren’t just peasants. Many are professionals desperate for nothing more than just an ordinary life.

We all know by now of the 1500-2000 people who daily are arriving the refugee city of Dadaab, Kenya, fleeing death and destruction in next door Somalia, an unprecedented human exodus from a land wrought by drought and war.

But the media leave us with the impression that everyone running away from Somali is a destitute subsistence farmer or shepherd. I imagine most are. But there are also thousands and thousands who are accountants and lawyers, businessmen, teachers and computer techies, skilled individuals of countless professions.

The peasant farmer deserves no less help than the accountant. But the accountant is more skilled, has more savvy. Knows that there are better places to be than Dadaab.

With a bit of saved money, and usually nothing more than a cell phone with a new SIM card (that costs about 50¢) each time he enters a new country, the educated person can pursue a journey to a better place.

I know this. Because I was personally involved in helping a single professional refugee fleeing the 1994 Rwanda genocide. At the time I first thought he was remarkably unique. But in assisting him I learned there were nearly a thousand others like him hiding in Nairobi, waiting for the kind of help I was able to give to only him.

Today, as a result of the war and famine in The Horn, at least 1500 refugees per month have been entering South Africa, according to Abdul Hakim, a Somali leader living in South Africa. Some suggest it’s even more.

According to Natalia Perez of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), in the first quarter of 2011, 7200 asylum-seekers were documented entering South Africa at the Beitbridge border with Zimbabwe.

South Africa is the obvious choice for any skilled person fleeing Somalia. Its economy is 20 times larger than the rest of sub-Sahara Africa combined. Its politics are free and generous. Until recently, anyway, refugees were welcomed with open arms.

It’s nearly 2000 miles as the crow flies from Dadaab to the Beitbridge border post, and no refugee flies. In between are at least three countries, some times four depending upon the route, and these countries are hostile to refugees no matter what their skills.

Clearly the person who navigates as a fugitive through multiple layers of police and other officials, who knows how to get foreign currencies to buy bus and train tickets, who speaks multiple languages, who is able to find food and shelter for a subterranean journey that could take months… is no peasant farmer.

She or he is an educated, skilled professional. Ultimately, South Africa will be remarkably enriched by this flood of professionals into its country. But all at once, at a time of a depressed global economy, the stress may have become too profound on South African society.

The country’s open policy is changing.

Although officially denied by South African officials, we have to believe the multiple reports that at least an unstated policy change has occurred. South Africa’s borders are tightening, and this has caused a pushback into lands no skilled refugee would choose to make home.

Zimbabwe is no place of refuge, and there are as many as a thousand Zimbabweans monthly trying to get into South Africa. But Zimbabwe is the natural transit point for asylum seekers from the north wanting to enter South Africa.

Zimbabwe is not a country known for its gentle care. But in a deft political move that gives this ruthless country some cover, Zimbabwe has allowed the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) to set up a camp inside Zimbabwe as refugees at Beitbridge find it harder to get into South Africa.

Right now, there are 646 mostly Somalis being held there as if in a prison, picked up by Zimbabwean authorities as they are bounced back from South Africa.

Above Zimbabwe is Tanzania. UNHCR’s Mozambique head told a refugee newspaper last week that nearly a thousand refugees have been stopped at the Tanzania border with Mozambique and are now being held in a nearby prison. He said there were about 50 young children among those now being detained.

If true, Tanzania is violating a number of world treaties and customary human rights practices and could be prosecuted at the World Court.

I think of the one story I know so well of the man I helped in 1994. His story ended fabulously. He lives in the U.S. as a computer scientist, has a wonderful home and three lovely children. The only sadness in the memory is that he was but one of a thousand I had seen.

Today, there are tens, maybe hundreds of thousands.

How soon will it become millions?

Famine by Man not Drought

Famine by Man not Drought

Famine is spreading across the Horn of Africa and threatens a world crisis. It’s not principally the result of drought. It’s due to political and social circumstances that if left unaddressed will begin one terrible unending famine capable of wiping out entire populations and massively stressing global resources.

News junkies crave disasters and power the news everywhere. The famine reporting I’m reading now is so driven by this that even impeccable organizations like one of my daily necessities, Reuters Africa, are failing to report correctly.

Reuters’ report, today, essentially attributes the main cause for the famine to “successive seasons of failed rains.”

Not true. There has been only one failed rainy season in The Horn so far.

The famine is centered in Somalia, and because of the fighting there, good weather data doesn’t exist. But we do have good weather data very nearby, where nearly 400,000 refugees have fled just over the border into Kenya, at Mandera.

This is in Kenya’s far north in a climate zone nearly identical to most of Somalia. See the “Precipitation MANDERA, KENYA” chart prepared by NOA.

The chart shows that the normal Nov-Dec rainy season received just about 2″ of rain, which is about three-quarters of normal. The usually heavier Mar-May season failed completely. That one rainy season failure would not have caused famine in the past.

Then why is there now a looming crisis?

Because there’s a war. The people in Somalia have been disrupted from their normal routines. Before war ravaged The Horn a single rainy season failure was easily augmented by relying on stored food from surplus harvests, or from importing food from further south.

But now even when the rains are good, such as a year ago, the Somali’s didn’t grow much food. They weren’t planting; they were shooting.

And while there is surplus food in the world, even in the immediate area, it isn’t getting to the famine area. AID agencies can’t give away free food.

And Tanzania, which has a bumper harvest so far this year, has banned free market agricultural sales to the north, for fear it will deplete its own surpluses. This has severely effected the relief effort in Somalia, not to mention angered northern Tanzanian farmers.

So the imminent world crisis in The Horn is most certainly famine. But its principal cause is not the failure of rains, but the failure of humankind.

Moving south into Kenya and Tanzania, we have a slightly different story.

Look at NOA’s charts for NAIROBI and MWANZA.

An imaginary line from Nairobi, Kenya, to Mwanza, Tanzania, more or less transects the most densely populated areas of that region as well as the principal game viewing areas enjoyed by foreign tourists.

Over the course of the last year, Nairobi is running a 47% deficit in normal precipitation, and Mwanza is running a 26% deficit. “Running” is the key word. A careful reading of the graph shows that the problem occurred in the Feb-Jun period. That’s when the top (normal) and bottom (actual) lines diverge. That season failed completely in Nairobi and was weak in Mwanza.

But note that the track from May onwards in Mwanza is normal, and in fact shows more rain than normal in Nairobi.

We know, too, from photos coming from northern Tanzania that there have been recent rains there. It was thunderstorming in some Nairobi areas last night. This is totally abnormal. The end of July is normally a completely dry time.

Normal isn’t normal, anymore. The seasons for rains are changing or growing erratic due to climate change.

Go into a national park, and things look pretty normal. The giraffe, wildebeest, buffalo and zebra look fine. But just outside the park, Maasai cattle are dying.

More and more, the growing numbers of Maasai cattle depend upon hay-like supplements. Farmers who still plant in traditional ways, presuming the rains will come in March (when in fact, this year it appears they are coming, now), lose their crops. There is no hay. Even if there were hay, there are probably too many cattle.

The situation applies to people, too. Food prices increase because less was produced, and those rich enough have no problem, as is the case in most urban areas like Nairobi. But outside urban areas, crises occur almost overnight.

Food prices increase. Poor people have less money. Truck farmers take their food to areas where it can be bought and stop deliveries to remote areas where the poor can’t pay.

Nairobi announced this week that a series of power outages were now planned, because of the “poor rains” last season. The reservoirs are too low to produce enough power. “Enough” is a more important word in that last sentence than “low.”

In years past, enough power was cranked out even after two or three failed rainy seasons. Not now. One failed season and the power goes out.

There is no question that we have an imminent catastrophe in Somalia, a famine that has already begun. There is no question that we have a growing social crisis in much of Kenya.

But neither is due to drought, at least drought as has been historically defined. It’s due to war and the failure to deal with climate change.

It’s a failure of humankind. And any remedy for that may be as unattainable as controlling the weather.

Pathetic Fear of the Wounded

Pathetic Fear of the Wounded

East Africa: beware! You are reacting to the fall of bin Laden like a Republican U.S. politician, and you should know by now that’s absurd.

Until now I’ve felt that East Africa had handled terrorism threats – particularly from Al-Qaeda and its franchises – better than the U.S. But that may be changing now that bin Laden is dead and East Africa is emerging as a powerful young society.

East Africa has probably suffered as much if not more from the machinations of Al-Qaeda than the U.S. Don’t forget: it was the embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that were blown up in 1998 by Al-Qaeda that presaged 9/11.

Fringe Muslims had been blowing up things in Kenya since the early 1960s when the then Block Norfolk Hotel was bombed because it was owned by Jews. Somali shares a 500k border with Kenya, and Al-Shabab (Al-Qaeda in Somalia) controls much of it. During the World Cup last year almost 100 people were killed when two sports bars in Kampala were blown to smithereens because Ugandan troops aid a UN peacekeeping effort in Somalia.

And there’s much, much more. I won’t be foolish enough to count up the bodies, East Africa vs. the U.S. from Al-Qaeda, but the comparison is serious.

And until Obama, American politicians used terrorism incidents to beef up the military industrial complex and prop up their own careers. Sounds harsh? Yes, it is terribly harsh, but it is not spurious, it’s true.

The incredible difference in the way the Obama administration has handled the end of Osama, compared to previous (mostly Republican) administrations that used torture, disseminated grizzly pictures and turned our national security into a contest for new MnM colors, tells me that we’re finally getting it right.

Ideas, Joe, not guns and their human debris. Plans, not fear.

But now I’m worried that East Africa is following the same wrong course that America followed in the past.

“As the world celebrated the killing of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan Sunday by US Special Forces, East Africa stared at a possible new political nightmare,” warned popular East African columnist Charles Onyango-Obbo in an OpEd this weekend.

Onyango went on to terrify his readers with the same balderdash dumb politicians have used for centuries: fear of the wounded devil. Wounded but not killed, his vengeance becomes greater than ever.

“Most analysts agree that the Al Qaeda threat has not been buried with him,” Onyango writes of the obvious, even though it isn’t. Many analysts believe this and many other successes against terrorism recently herald the beginning of the end of Al-Qaeda.

Terrorism expert Peter Bergen claimed on CNN the bin Ladens’ death marked “the end of the war on terror” and a number of experts as critical as Foreign Policy’s Daveed Gartenstein-Ross cautiously agree.

I don’t think it’s necessarily that definitive, but my point is that there is not universal certainty among those who should know, that bin Laden’s death increases the threat level of terrorism anywhere .. including in East Africa.

The most repressive government in East Africa, was the most enthusiastic about the “new threats.” Details hadn’t even been released about Osama’s demise when on May 2 the Ugandan government “stressed the need to beef up security following the killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Matia Kasaija, the internal affairs state ministersaid Uganda should not be caught unaware.”

It’s an old tactic, for morally bereft governments and uncreative journalists: scare the hell out of the audience to get their loyalty and attention.

It’s what we did in America for nearly a generation, and we now realize what a terrible mistake that was.

East Africa, beware. Don’t jeopardize reality just to score some extra points.

The Dominoes Reach Somalia

The Dominoes Reach Somalia

Guns from the UK, Guns from America, and bodies from Africa.
Tuesday Congress gave President Obama additional emergency funding for the war in Afghanistan. But the real new news is that America and Britain are beginning a new war in Somalia.

This was a week where terror succeeded. It began with the Al-Shabaab (Al-Qaeda) bombings in Kampala, which like 9/11 are intended to provoke. Terrorists know they are militarily inferior, but if they can provoke the militarily superior to come to them, they can win.

Nine-Eleven did just that. It provoked the U.S. in a multi-trillion dollar response that hasn’t ended yet, and judging from Obama’s increasingly hawkish ways, won’t end at all soon.

The powers of the world just don’t get it: no matter how powerful you may be, you can’t beat the joker on his own turf.

By diverting resources away from eliminating poverty, or malaria, or child soldiers… despicable culture centers like fiendish jihadism flourish. These weirdos survive on misery. But we can’t try to end poverty, or malaria or child soldiers… because the resources that would be used are being used instead to buy guns.

So the bad guys at whom the guns are pointed and who want the poor to stay poor so that they can be elevated as the poor’s protectors, win.

It’s weirdly impractical, but if we’d just schedule regular drops of thousands of dollar bills over Helmand Province or Basra, rather than delivering guns to shoot one another, there’d be no terrorism left. And it’d probably cost a lot less.

And this enigmatic neurotic dynamic of World Powers has infected every single American administration, Republican or Democrat, since my birth.

And what I worry about, now, is Africa.

Africa has been mostly immune from this aberration of modernism, because only lately has its resources become so important. Yes Zambia had copper, and yes, South Africa had diamonds and gold, and yes Nigeria has oil, but not enough, or too deep, or too cheap, or too hard to get at.

But gold is five times the value it was ten years ago. Oil extraction technology is way superior to what it was before, and the thirst for oil especially from China and the U.S. is unbelievable. Copper is an old element. But Coltan is desperately needed by every cell phone and it’s in The Congo and Rwanda.

So enter Africa into the Modern Age: Prepare for battle.

So America called on the Organization of African Unity (OAU) to beef up its troops last week to fight Al-Shabaab in Somali. The OAU asked America for guns. We’re giving them big time.

Yesterday, Kenya’s security chief, George Saitoti, asked its mother colonizer Britain for “support” in fighting al-Shabaab.

Britain’s new conservative Minister of African Affairs, Henry Bellingham, said he was “delighted” to help.

“Al-Shabaab is a threat to all other countries including the UK (United Kingdom)”, Bellingham said, raising his China teacup to new heights.

Since I was born in 1948 just after World War II, the U.S. has spent more money on wars than any other single service for me or my fellow citizens, if you dare call “war” a service.

Korea, Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, Granada, Panama, Nicaragua, the Balkans, Gulf, Iraq and Afghanistan and that doesn’t count the “Cold War” expense of nuclear armaments or troops and bases in Europe.

Now, it seems, add Somalia.

When Will We Ever Learn?

When Will We Ever Learn?

America in Africa...or...China in Africa?
The U.S. is finally realizing that Somali is the center of the world’s “War on Terror.” And so now we’re all ready to do exactly the wrong thing. Again.

I’ve written often — and spoken in public — about the growing power that Al-Shabaab has in Somalia. Al-Shabaab is Al-Qaeda in The Horn. Western preoccupation with Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Iraq has allowed them to spread and regroup into the Horn of Africa.

Al-Shabaab has been fighting along Kenya’s long northeastern border with Somalia for more than three years. Much of this has been hit-and-run, kidnapping and petty theft of food and military equipment, but more and more the gun battles with Kenyans begin to assume real engagement.

Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for Sunday’s bombings in Kampala. That seemed to do the trick: The U.S. has finally noticed.

First we heard from General William Ward who heads the U.S. Africa Command, that the U.S. would increase its military support to the TFG in Somalia. (Transitional Federal Government).

Then, a much more elaborate policy was detailed by the U.S.’ main diplomat in the region, Johnnie Carson.

I don’t like what I’m hearing.

What I’m hearing is that the U.S. is going to step up its military aid while lecturing a weak and futile puppet Somali government that it “should do more” for its people.

Here are my excerpts from Carson’s interview with All Africa published, today:

“I think [military assistance] is the correct policy… We have provided [Uganda & Burundi soldiers in Somalia] with military equipment… We have supported the training of TFG forces…We have supported specialized training in dealing with improvised explosive devices and training for the protection of ports and airports… There is no question that the TFG has to do more than it’s done in the past….

“We have not done enough on Somalia, which, for far too long, has been the subject of benign neglect by the United States…Given the magnitude of the problems …now is the time for the international community to recognize that this problem will only get worse for all of us if we do not come together to find a solution.”

Military assistance is NOT the correct policy. Providing military equipment and training to Ugandan soldiers who are famous for raping and pillaging in The Congo is NOT the correct policy. The TFG is an useless entity. We should NOT support the TFG.

I like Johnnie Carson, and I more or less like the Obama administration’s overall foreign policy, but they seem stuck in American imperialism. It’s just so dastardly how good guys get corrupted by power. I wonder if we elected Mahatma Ghandi U.S. President if he would then start new wars that we’d lose.

My lifetime has been characterized by failed U.S. wars and failed U.S. policies that I see as contributing to if not outright causing world terrorism.

Military actions will not end terror.

Why can we not learn from history?

Here’s the answer: click here.

Bruton’s formula is not new. Learned men have been espousing active, nonmilitary engagement in troubled parts of the world for decades as the ONLY solution to the world’s instabilities. We just don’t seem to get it.

Military action by a foreign power cannot eradicate a local guerrilla force. Period.

Military support of puppet regimes put in power by outside foreign powers is a black hole. Period.

Puppet regimes don’t last. Period.

And the most salient point is that the cost of military action is dozens if not hundreds of times greater than nonmilitary assistance.

In today’s Africa China’s got it right and America’s got it wrong. China is spending billions on roads, resource development and city planning. The U.S. is, too, but many more billions on military.

China’s spending on African military? 0. Zip. Not a penny.

I don’t mean to frame this as a contest between China and America, I mean to point out that China’s got policy orientation right and is contributing to African development. And that America’s obsession with military will destroy African development.

We must end our roles as policeman, schoolmarm, parent and pastor for the rest of the world. We can perform a role as a benefactor, but no longer as a soldier.

When will we ever learn?

More Trouble for Uganda?

More Trouble for Uganda?

Police display the unexploded suicide vest found in Kampala.
Ugandan police gave indications, yesterday, that Al-Shabaab plans further bombings in Kampala next week during the OAU conference.

I imagine that several Heads of State who had planned to attend will not, now, or will greatly reduce their stay. In this regard, the Sunday bombings would have achieved their objectives, so further disruption wouldn’t be necessary. But:

Next week is not a time to visit Uganda. Wait until the conference is over July 28.

The OAU is the main body controlling the Somali peacekeeping forces in Mogadishu, and Uganda is the largest single contributor to that force. The OAU mission supports a weak Somali government being contested militarily by Al-Shabaab.

Ugandan police announced the arrest of Wasswa Nsubuga just outside the city yesterday and claim that he was carrying documents describing how to create 19 different types of bombs. He is an Ugandan who two years ago returned from Iraq where he had been working as a security guard. He currently works as a security guard in Kampala for a supermarket.

In his defense, and with credit to the police, Nsubuga explained to the press in a prepared statement that the documents he carried had been given him by his Iraq employer as a way of educating himself of the threats of terrorists.

But there were other Ugandan government actions that also suggested heightened concern as delegates to the OAU begin arriving, Saturday.

Police and military are visible everywhere from Entebbe to Kampala, brandishing large machine guns. Virtually every city hotel now has intense security, with under-body car checks made outside parking areas, and metal detectors being rushed to hotel entries.

Most of the larger shopping centers have also employed new, visible security measures.

But the most visible change has been at the airport at Entebbe. Check-in now takes about 4 hours, with multiple checks by Ugandan government officials followed by private security checks from the individual airlines.

My fingers are crossed for the Ugandans next week. On the one hand, the event now having occurred, it seems unlikely more could happen. But the clear and stated target was the African forces from the OAU now in Somalia, and their annual conference begins Saturday.

Bombings in Kampala

Bombings in Kampala

More than 60 people were killed yesterday in two separate bomb attacks in Kampala, a signature Al-Qaeda attack. Curiously, the terrorist organization has not claimed responsibility.

I’ve increasingly written about Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda in Somalia, and their increasing power and influence in East Africa. With last week’s peaceful elections in the southern third of Somali known as Somaliland, the Al-Shabaab is consolidating its control of the north-western third outside Mogadishu. Ironically, violence in Somalia is slightly down.

But if the fighting for turf is subsidizing, the fighting for hearts and minds is only growing. The blasts in Kampala, at an Ethiopian bar and the Rugby Sports Club (both packed with guests watching the World Cup), carry all the characteristics of a terrorist organization trying to make a point.

Their point: get out of Somalia.

Uganda and Burundi are the only East African countries that have military forces in Somalia fighting Al-Shabaab. They are a part of a joint UN/African Union force that is doing poorly and has suffered numerous casualties for peace-keepers. The Uganda media is becoming increasingly hostile with the government’s war effort, there.

So all the pointers suggest a premeditated, coordinated attack by Al-Shabaab to get East African forces out of Mogadishu.

Why, then, have they not taken full responsibility?

(1) The nature of terrorism is such that Al-Shabaab may have planted agents in Uganda but without fully knowing their plans. They may simply be waiting for their own confirmation.

(2) The President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, is standing for re-election later this year. He has become increasingly authoritarian and has been imprisoning a number of opponents. The biggest attack was at the Rugby Club, frequented almost exclusively by educated and many dissident Ugandans. Regardless of who actually did it, will most certainly quiet to some extent Museveni’s public critics.

(3) Shortly the southern Sudan will be voting for independence from the Republic of Sudan, and the situation just north of Uganda is growing tense. Uganda has been an advocate for southern Sudanese independence. (Uganda President) Museveni has told the Republic of Sudan that if its president comes to Kampala next month for the Organization of African Unity (OAU) meeting, he’ll be arrested. (There is an international warrant on Omar al Bashir for war crimes in Darfur.) Sudan harbors Al-Shabaab.

The horror of what has happened suggests some absurdity in focusing on the perpetrators, but we have been fairly fortunate in the last several years in East Africa to not have suffered these incidents. With some clarity in the days ahead, we may have a clearer understanding if anything new is developing.

Right now, I don’t think so. The evidence is pointing to Al-Shabaab, specifically against Uganda for its soldiers in Somalia, a mission that because of its low international interest has attracted less international security. Thus, more easily accomplished.

Americans Crazy with Fear

Americans Crazy with Fear

Daily Nation cartoon by GADO.
Al-Qaeda is failing; Iran and North Korea are still threats, but not as imminently so, yet Americans are addicted to fear. So we’re turning inwards, dangerously so. We should take a lesson from Africa.

Sunday al-Qaeda militants crashed the Kenyan border at Liboi in the middle of the night, trashed the Ali-arif and Abdi-adoon hotels, and left a bomb that didn’t go off before retreating to Somalia. Not a single mention of it in the Kenyan press.

Was this an oversight? Was it poor judgment by the news editors in East Africa who instead were talking about the ash cloud over Iceland and the new constitution in Kenya? Or the horrible trash collections in Dar? Or the ongoing corruption in Tanzanian road building? Or more failures searching for oil?

No, because all of those issues were more important than the border crashing Al-Qaeda thugs in Liboi. Their bomb didn’t work! They posed no more of a threat to Kenya or the world than some errant middle schooler in Hamburg who can get his internet fingers on the design of a nuclear weapon.

But can you imagine how the growing group of American righties might think of this?

We thrive on paranoia. I just came back from six weeks in Africa to a culture of unbelievable accusations by the American fringe. Only one was new, but the old charges that Obama is taking away our liberties (and guns), that the new health care legislation will kill us, that bank regulation is bank bailout I had managed to forget. Once away from America, they seem impossible to believe.

But there they were, again. Palins, Bachmans, crazies crowding the media. Unbelievable. We trade in reasoning so that we can stay on edge: be afraid.

Here’s a great contrast between Africa and America, and the best example I can find for Americans to scale it down and learn from Africans.

Kenyans’ take on the Icelandic volcano is shown in the cartoon, above. A decrepit Osama bin-Laden trying to resurrect himself by taking credit for the volcanic eruption.

Fringe Americans’ take on the Icelandic volcano:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzVZ6UxN9qs

Which is more realistic? Which contributes better to our handling of terror, much less our handling of ourselves and our truly imminent responsibilities.

Woe, America. Watch out. Have you ever heard of the kite spider?

The Sound of Somalia

The Sound of Somalia

Who Represents Somalia?

By Conor Godfrey

On April 3rd, Hizbul-Islam gave Somali radio stations 10 days to stop playing music—or else.

The latest bit of absurdity was most likely an effort to prove that they are as resolutely against culture as their erstwhile partners-cum rivals al-Shabaab.

Of course al-Shabaab would most likely agree with this ban if they were not too busy using the radio stations in question to preach jihad against Westerners and the transitional government.

If music goes against the grain of Hizbul-Islam’s draconian interpretation of Islam, that only shows how out of touch Hizbul-Islam is with Somali culture.

Music played a celebrated role in Somali culture before the arrival of Islam and has continued to do so ever since.

My introduction to modern Somali music came through K’naan , the Somali born rapper from Toronto.

Singing mostly in English, but weaving in words from Somali, Arabic, and even the odd word in Swahili, his lyrical prowess puts him in the same league as American rappers like Lupe Fiasco and Mos Def.

On his second album “Troubadour,” K’naan splits his time between telling stories from his childhood in “Fatima” and “People Like Me”, talking about his aspirations for Somalia and Africa in “Wavin’ Flag” and “Somalia”, and cranking out fast paced dance hits like “Dreamer” and “I Come Prepared”.

K’naan is hardly alone.

Somali-Jazz phenom Maryam Mursal walked across the horn of African with five small children in tow to escape the civil war only to become a world-music mega star on Peter Gabriel’s Real World music label.

I just listened to her album “Journey” all the way through and almost felt moved to thank HIzbul-Islam for giving me the excuse to discover her

To the uninitiated (like me) her rhythms sound vaguely Arab, but the driving beat gives her music a trance-like quality that makes for a truly heightened listening experience.

Sample some of her music here.

Before the war shattered the professional music scene, the Somali National Theatre supported groups like Waaberi.

This traditional music super-group in turn launched the careers of several prominent Somali musicians including Abdullahi Qarshe, Hasan Adan Samatar, and of course Maryam Mursal.

Listen to Waaberi’s sound.

Today, a modern Somali pop music dominates the scene, along with foreign music from the Somali diaspora, America and the Middle East.

However, traditional musicians continue to play at ceremonies and other important events.

In exile, the diaspora continues to pump out music, of which K’naan is merely the most commercially successful example.

Websites like somalioz.com and others help musicians and their music reach compatriots at home.

I hate the thought that Hizbul-Islam and al-Shabaab might represent Somalia.

Next time the extremists steal the headlines I hope you listen to Maryam Mursal and let her sound, the sound of Somalia, drown out the drivel coming from Hizbul-Islam.

Piracy on The High Seas

Piracy on The High Seas

Today's Face of Piracy -- Hijacking More Than a Ship
Today's Face of Piracy -- Hijacking More Than Just the Ship

By Conor Godfrey

Over the past several days, news that French naval forces had captured ten pirate vessels coincided with reports of pirates seizing new ships and demanding hefty ransoms.

To Susie-Q public, piracy seems like a bad joke. Even the moderately well informed news consumer tends to picture a black Johnny Depp swilling rum on an African beach and blowing his hard earned ransom money on a few good nights in Margaritaville.

People ask how the world’s great powers let a few amateurs with motorboats push them around?

This image was cemented when American snipers killed three pirates in the Hollywood style rescue of Captain Richard Phillips. I could hear people around me thinking, “that’s right matey, look what happened when Uncle Sam got serious!”

However, the reality of modern piracy is complicated, expensive, and difficult to stamp out.

First some answers to the simple questions:

Why is it so hard to catch them?

Well, the twenty-odd warships on patrol cannot possibly cover the 1.1 million miles of ocean known as the Gulf of Aden. Pirates are also eschewing the heavily patrolled coastline and seizing ships up to 1,000 miles from the coast.

On the investigative side, the Somali economy runs almost entirely on cash, making it difficult to freeze pirate assets or follow the money back to the real movers and shakers.

Furthermore, the lack of an effective Somali government gives rise to a tragedy of the commons—who wants to foot the bill for stamping out piracy that effects everyone? (Sounds a bit like the Copenhagen Summit.)

How serious is the problem?

About 3.3 million barrels of oil pass through the Gulf of Aden every day. In any given year 20,000-30,000 ships use the Gulf to pass through the strait of Bab el-Mandab and onto the Suez Canal.

Where is the closest detour you ask? A mere 3,000 miles both ways around the Cape of Good hope.

The estimated 30 million dollars the pirates claimed in ransoms during 2008 accounts for only a tiny fraction of the overall cost to the global economy.

Rising insurance premiums, the cost of armed escorts, and fuel for detours constitute significant transaction costs for companies plying their trade in the Gulf of Aden.

The resurgence of piracy also says something important about the global system and Africa’s place in it.

Along with all the benefits of globalization came one significant drawback—the international system is now much easier to disrupt and those disruptions ripple further than ever before.

Buccaneers in Somalia with a few AK47s and the odd RPG can hurt the global economy to the tune of billions of dollars. (Estimates vary widely between 1 and 16 billion dollars annually.)

19 hijackers with box cutters can change the world.

Drug cartels based in South America can topple West African governments.

Bad dept in one sector of one country’s real estate market can trigger a cascade of financial failures all over the world. (Indulge the simplification to illustrate the point.)

Poverty and inequality unfortunately make Africa a likely breeding ground for such disruptors—be they pirates or pandemics.

While I have mixed feelings about globalization in general, I hope its benefits reach the underserved parts of Africa before those places protest their neglect by launching the next global menace.

Related Reading: Piracy Map

France Apologizes, America’s Turn

France Apologizes, America’s Turn

President Sarkozy at Rwanda's Genocide Memorial
President Sarkozy at Rwanda's Genocide Memorial

Apologizing is hard and noble. It’s America’s turn.

Today, France apologized to Rwanda for its actions that contributed to the Rwandan genocide of 1994. Like the Belgian Parliament’s historic apology to the Congo for its ancient king, Leopold, (which included substantial reparations) these are difficult and noble acts.

“What happened here is unacceptable and …forces the international community… to reflect on the mistakes that prevented it from anticipating and stopping this terrible crime,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy told Reuters today.

It’s now America’s turn; Bill Clinton’s in particular.

The Rwandan genocide of 1994 could have been stopped. Numerous books and hundreds of pages of oath-sworn testimony, not to mention popular films, have documented the neglect of western countries, mostly the U.S. and France, from taking action earlier enough.

The UN general on the ground commanding a pitiful 500 troops saw it all coming. He pleaded with the General Assembly to do something.

The U.S. and France blocked his requests.

The genocide began.

France’s explanation was born of a long colonial involvement in the area. In a nutshell, there have always been little Hutus; they were the aboriginal hunter-gatherers of the area. In about the 6th or 7th centuries, the tall Watutsis (Tutsis) invaded the area.

The Tutsi herders represented about 15% of the population; the Hutus about 85%, but for more than a millennia the Tutsis over lorded the Hutus in a remarkably European feudal system.

During the colonial era France wanted to remedy this. That, too, was noble, but a half century of colonial rule is not enough to change the life ways of thousands of years.

The European colonial era ended not on any noble proposition. It ended because the colonial powers, Europe, were devastated by World War II and could no longer afford their colonies.

Belgium and France were the colonial powers in this region, and they raced to end their involvement with little recognition that all they had done during their occupation was make matters worse between the Hutus and Tutsis.

The first major massacre was 1972. Six more followed before the catastrophic genocide of 1994. Even today in Hutu/Tutsi conflicted Burundi, war rages. Not even Nelson Mandela’s decade long involvement in Burundi has stopped the fighting.

But in Rwanda it could have been stopped. But France ever championing the underdog, talked itself into believing that the event which started the genocide, the missile strike of the Hutu President’s plane returning to Kigali from a peace conference, was a deliberate act of the Tutsi.

Until today, in fact, France contended that the current President Paul Kagame of Rwanda was principally responsible for the missile strike.

He may have been. I don’t think we’ll ever know, several lower judges in France continue to bring charges against Kagame and others. Recently, a Rwanda government official was arrested when she entered Rwanda and charged with events leading to the genocide.

But French President Sarkozy is cutting to the chase. Whether it was Kagame’s gang or not who shot down the plane, France and the U.S. could have stopped the genocide, and they didn’t.

France contended for too many days after the fighting started that it was the Hutus fault, and it blindsided itself to the fact that in the beginning it was the Hutus who were the murderers.

Sarkozy has now admitted all of this. And apologized.

And America?

Well it was different with us. Bill Clinton was burned beyond belief by the defeat of Blackhawk Down in Somalia. We know much less about Africa than France. The one defeat-fits-all syndrome made Clinton believe we could be burned again in Rwanda.

We wouldn’t have been. The UN on the ground could have stopped the genocide. I think that some critics who claim Clinton was just being mean are ridiculous. I think he was just… dumb.

The world is grossly interconnected. We need our leaders to be aware as much of tiny places of trouble like Tblisi and Kigali, as they are fixated on Tehran.

After the genocide, France spent $900 million dollars in helping Rwanda recover. The U.S. spent $1.1 billion. Even from the crass business cost perspective, we both made very bad decisions.

Thank you, France.

And now, America? I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Victorious fighters of al-Shabaab

Victorious fighters of al-Shabaab

youngsoldiersLess than 24 hours after the UN Security Council approved continued funding of the Somali peace-keeping force, that force may have been routed from the capital by al-Qaeda.

After a night of intense fighting in Mogadishu, the blogosphere is replete with claims that al-Shabaab (al-Qaeda in Somalia) is near to taking over. Reuters was unable to make contact with any of the UN Peace Keepers.

“This fighting was the worst in months,” Mogadishu resident Ahmed Hashi told Reuters.

The world’s recent attention on Yemen as a cauldron for al-Qaeda growth came way too late. And now it seems not even the UN realizes how serious the situation in Somalia is.

This incessant game of catch-up, of pushing the “War Against Terror” from one country to another and always too late, now threatens the legacy of stability the west helped to create in East Africa.

The UN force had been trying to protect the pitifully weak “interim Somali government” which has not even controlled the entire capital city for the last year.

Al-Shabaab on the other hand has slowly established control over a huge portion of the country. In October these mostly foreign fighters took control of large towns near the Kenyan border.

Only the pirate-held area near Kismayu seems out of al-Shabaab’s grasp.

And where are all these weapons coming from? We’re not talking about machetes. There are tanks and missile launchers.

The fighting today reminds me of the 1980s Cold War days when America-backed Somali fought Russia- backed Ethiopia in the useless Ogaden desert that separates the two countries. Thousands of tanks. Thousands and thousands of mortars. Even jet fighters. For a completely useless piece of land.

That legacy left want and destruction then chaos, and at the time most of us didn’t even know that battles which rivaled those of WWII were going on the Horn.

We left want and destruction all over the Horn, proxy battles for the parlor room politics back in Washington and Moscow. The McCarthy hearings were shameful, the Vietnam War apocalyptic to world peace, but the number of Ethiopians and Somalis who were killed in the 1980s fighting for Communism vs. Capitalism and since killed as a result far out numbers the 58,196 names on Washington’s Vietnam Wall.

That was a generation ago. The children born then, now the fighters of al-Shabaab, now know no other life.

Nairobi Riots over Al-Faisal

Nairobi Riots over Al-Faisal

From Aljazeera -- some of the best reporting.
From Aljazeera -- some of the best reporting.

As night fell on Nairobi, Friday, the streets were quiet and five people were confirmed dead.

Below is an edited report from the BBC, but let me first complain bitterly about the NPR report. I love NPR but they continually get Africa wrong. Alone among such giants as the BBC, Reuters and Aljazeera, NPR failed to report that much of the riot was caused when Nairobi citizens started throwing stones against the Muslim demonstrators.

It seems that the police may have then sided with the much larger anti-demonstration crowd and over-reacted. But this would be typical in Nairobi. I remember during the August, 1998, bombing of the embassy. The first public action by Nairobi citizens was to burn the city mosque.

See my earlier blogs this week and last about Al-Faisal, terrorism, etc. Here are excerpts from the BBC:

At least five people have died after Kenyan police opened fire at supporters of a Jamaican-born Muslim cleric notorious for preaching racial hatred.

Faisal is in detention in Nairobi after Kenya failed to deport him.

Kenya wants to expel him citing his “terrorist history”. He was jailed for four years in the UK for soliciting the murder of Jews and Hindus.

Muslim youths began the protest match after Friday prayers at the Jamia Mosque in the centre of Kenya’s capital, Nairobi.

They wanted to present a petition to Immigration Minister Otieno Kajwang and Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s office.

But police had banned the march and intervened.

One banner read: “Release al-Faisal, he is innocent”, reports the AFP news agency.

Some reports suggest that the protesters were waving flags of Somali Islamist group al-Shabab.

Reuters news agency reports that some people joined the security forces in attacking the protesters.