Within a week we’ll know whether the Kenyan invasion of Somalia is the true beginning of the end of al-Qaeda or the start of increased instability and terrorism in Kenya. I’m pretty pessimistic and damn mad. But the outcome of the battle of Kismayo will tell all.
Kismayo is a city. A functioning, wealth-producing large coastal city with a proud university and clean streets. It’s the defacto capital of al-Qaeda in The Horn, the center for terrorist planning, administration and growth.
It’s the only true geopolitical epicenter of terrorists in the world. In Kismayo terrorism leaders don’t hide in caves. They go to work in offices. They collect taxes. They use big computers to concoct strategy, to build internet sites, to train young militants in actual schools, to organize and implement arms deals. This isn’t Wajiristan.
And until this moment, Kismayo was untouchable. Since Sunday, planes have bombed the city. Sea-launched missiles hit the city center. The Kenya military is marching towards Kismayo.
Kenya’s major newspaper called the expected encounter “The Mother of All Battles.” Western terrorist experts see it as a “high stakes game for Kenya.”
There is remarkable calm in Kenya. In fact, it’s absolutely ridiculous! The rest of the region and much of the world is overwhelmed by news from the front, including the first two Nairobi city bombings as al-Shabaab begins its guerilla war inside Kenya. But one reading the Kenyan newspapers today has a hard time finding any war reports at all!
The country is in denial. The diaspora is in denial. Even if the battle is successful, the effort is likely to bankrupt the country. Tourism is doomed for the forseeable future. Even political stability, so creatively accomplished for the last four years, shows the first stages of unraveling.
I hate making this prediction, and I really want to be proved wrong. But Operation “Linda Nchi” will fail. It will likely fail the same way Ethiopia failed five years ago when western powers propped up its invasion of Mogadishu the same way they are currently propping up Kenya’s of Kismayo.
Ethiopia – with a far more sophisticated army than Kenya’s – marched into Mogadishu and installed a very weak government then rapidly returned home leaving behind a mess that was supposed to be cleaned up by 8-9000 non-Ethiopian African Union soldiers in a few months. It’s been three years. It’s still a mess.
Even though Kenya’s military is far less sophisticated than Ethiopia’s, I think this is the likely outcome, because terrorists survive by running away, never by making a stand. Their success comes in suicide and car bombs, subway attacks and shoe bombers. They don’t do tanks well.
The west seems to think that we’ve got al-Qaeda on the run. It’s true that an arm’s length list of al-Qaeda leaders have been wiped out by American drones and stealth attacks by the Obama administration. The question is, is it enough that Operation “Linda Nchi” is the nail in the coffin, or just the positioning of another sacrificial lamb.
If the latter, Kenya will become rocked by terrorism for years and years. Unless it becomes the horribly ruthless, dictatorial regime of Ethiopia where you need permission to sneeze on the streets of Addis Ababa.
Kenya doesn’t understand — which America maybe finally does – that a ground war against terrorism won’t work.
Defense against terrorism is critical and can be successful. Diplomacy and sanctions against terrorists works. Stealth raids and maybe even drones to kill terrorists might even work, but war doesn’t work. Kenya was managing all of these things masterfully! Until last week.
My friends in tourism in Nairobi are near panic. Bookings are canceling in the droves. And no one in their right mind would suggest a foreign vacationer visit the country, now.
This is so damn sad. For so long Kenya tread the perfect balance with regards to its chaotic terrorist neighbor, Somalia. It refused to join African peacekeepers in Somalia. It tolerated but repelled incessant incursions into its Somalia border towns. And it quietly assisted the big guys by rounding up terrorists on its own soil.
But then the Somalia famine quadrupled the size of the refugee camp in Kenya at Dadaab to a third of a million people, in less than three months; the world economic collapse bludgeoned the shilling, and finally the
“We had to do something.”
The chant of the impatient and vanquished.
Its unbelievable what i have just read. You make it sound as if Kenya is burning to its core. Your views cannot be further from the truth.
Fact:
The Kenya Army is among the biggest and most sophisticated in the continent and if you have no idea the might of the Kenya army then you will be advised to do your research.
Either way Al-Shabaab were going to ruin our tourism. and unlike cowardly western forces Kenya decided to do something about it.
The only thing ruining our tourism or will end up ruining are such baseless blogs.
We are a country of 40 million. rest assured we have learnt how to survive.
From london to the 911 bombings. No place in the world is safe. For all i know am safer in Kenya.
The kenyan men and women who have put their lives on the spot should be commended. Kenya will rise from this and prove you wrong. Rest assured we are that great.
Admittedly, this is risky but then the abdutction of foreigners on Kenyan soil was going to death knell Tourism anyway. They sure couldn’t not do anything about it, could they? I guess its a between a Rock and a Hard place and Kenya has opted for a hard place. Let us offer them moral support and hope for an OK exit – David felled Goliath.
I really do not understand you. On one side you are in tourism, on the other you continue to send out overly dramatised and quite frankly, offensive statements and blogs. You seem hell bent on destroying tourism to our much loved land.
You need to check your facts and figures before making sweeping statements that you clearly know very little about.
Please refrain from using over dramatising just to increase your blog hits and destroying people’s lives without care.
In the meantime, for those who might read this,
I will give my honest personal opinion.
• We, and the world have had a major problem with Somali pirates grabbing ships willy nilly in the Indian Ocean. Security became so tight recently that this “business” was all but closed off to them.
• As a result we had 2 kidnappings of tourists from the Lamu region. Easier targets.
• A combination of armed forces from Kenya and our allies then went into Somalia (with consent from the Transitional Government there) and have heavily hit the pirates and terrorist strong holds. This has seriously damaged the capability and capacity of these criminals.
• It is the intention of the military to continue flushing the area, all the way to Kismayo.
• The current 2 incidents in Nairobi, in my opinion, are a knee jerk reaction and cannot be sustained or continue.
• Security forces in Nairobi are doing an impressive job, flushing these guys out. Last night they had a successful raid and found a large cache of arms.
It is very important to note:
• That the 2 attacks have been deep down town (down behind the railway station) where no tourists go.
• They are not targeting foreigners or tourists, but trying to create terror with the local Kenyans.
• All hotels, airports and government buildings have security on high alert and are being extra vigilant and careful.
• It is only in Nairobi, downtown, the rest of the country is totally unaffected by any of it.
Mr Heck
IT IS WHEN A COUNTRY IS IN CRISIS THAT THE TRUE COLORS OF ASSOCIATES AND PARTNERS REALLY COME OUT .
I AM SADDENED TO READ SUCH NEGATIVE AND TOTALLY UNCALLED FOR COMMENTS ESPECIALLY FROM A PERSON THAT HAS HAD BUSINESS SUCCESS FROM THIS COUNTRY FOR OVER 40 YEARS!
TOURISM IS ONE OF OUR CORE PILLARS IN OUR VISION 2030,A PILLAR THAT WILL INCREASE EMPLOYMENT AND REVENUE FOR THIS GREAT NATION,IT THEREFORE BEGS THAT EVERYONE THAT CARES ABOUT THE FUTURE OF TOURISM IN KENYA ,WOULD DO THIER LEVEL BEST TO PROTECT IT.
GRANTED OUR GUARDS WERE DOWN OUR HOSPITALITY HIGH AND THIS LED TO CRIMINALS TAKING ADVANTAGE.
WE HAVE HIT BACK!
NOW CAN WE PLEASE GET SOME POSITIVE SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY TO HELP US TO TRY AND HANG TO THE BOOKINGS WE ARE CURRENTLY HAVING.
IF YOU ARE INCABLE OF POSITIVE COMMENTS THEN YOUR SILENCE WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.
ASANTE SANA
Lucy Karume
Chairman
Kenya Tourism Federation.
your comments have no basis.they are of course from a civilian’s point of view.we have one of the best armies in the world..that’s why you even know very little about it. don,t worry you’re not alone,so your opinion is welcomed keep on exposing your ignorance.
this war is for all Kenyans even the little kid in the streets ,for the love of our motherland and our brothers and sisters..for stability and economic resurrection.it is for the future and not for the present!.
For too long these bandits have abused ISLAM in the name of jihaadh. what do they know about jihaad! even ALLAH shall banish them.they smear mud on a honorable religion.. blood on their hands.
The comments are flabbergasting! they indicate without any modicum of doubt ,your greatest degree of ignorance especially with regard to the ability of our armed forces to resoundingly achieve their goal.The fact that they are reknown for their involvements in peace-keeping assignments all over the world does not mean they are cowards.You will be surprised with the outcome of this most noble assignment God willing.
The kenya military is strong. they will not be intimidated by terrorists, this al shabaab thing is arabic not african, lest we forget and we dont want it neither do somalis!