Just look at the ads. Do you have travel plans? Or a budget? It’s happened and it’s big news.

Travel is a leading indicator of the economy. Maybe the most predictive of any. And the data is in, folks. By the end of this year we will either be entering a deep recession or the Fed will have rescued the world for the first time in economic history. This data isn’t just the CPI, but specifically what I know best: my industry is imploding.

Prices for travel have fallen, like with hotels and rent-a-cars precipitously. In my own very specific safari industry, unheard of “Pay for 2 Stay for 3″ offers are just out. Exact itineraries published for above $10,000 per person for 2023 are just now being published for 2024 at around $1000 less.

I can’t say it’s a surprise, but it’s something many of us have been waiting for, for longer than we expected. Occupancy for all times of the year except the highest of high seasons is falling back to the darkened levels caused by the first whispers of Covid at the end of 2019. That fall started earlier this spring, but prices didn’t start reflecting this until about a month ago.

It’s beyond my pay grade to say what’s happening in tourism will happen to the real estate market, but it’s exactly my pay grade to comment on the possibility of an imminent recession.

That’s because tourism – my industry – has always been a leading indicator of the entire world economy. I remember so vividly in June, 2007, technically well before the Great Recession began, how I pow-wowed with other members of our Tanzanian company around the world to muse over seriously concerning data regarding forward bookings.

We knew something terrible was possible. We carefully looked to cutting costs, doing everything possible not to lower rates and revenue as the clock ticked. Then, in January 2008, we had to change public course and drop prices.

Well, we are right now, at the same point that we were at in January, 2008. Thursday the Fed will probably pause rising interest rates. January, 2008, marked the first time the Fed dropped interest rates before the Great Recession became a reality.

After crazy price increases that the Bush administration attributed to such a strong world economy, unusual global peace and exploding tech discoveries, prices for everything started to fall.

Pull up a few travel ads. Check air fares compared to a month ago. When I returned in late March from my last safari I rented a one-way AVIS from O’Hare to Dubuque for $386. When I return now from my August safari for the same car, same company, same time … the price I’m offered is $113.

Yes, San Francisco is beset by all sorts of problems and has been for some time. But the reason the cost of its hotel rooms has precipitously fallen to the level of similar rooms in St. Louis or Baton Rouge is a harbinger, not a result.

It’s hard not to say a major economic downturn is on the way. But…

…2008 did not follow a world pandemic. It was not recovering from supply chains twisted like diseased colons. Despite Bush’ and the Republicans’ protestations about a marvelously strong world economy, job and wage growth in America had slowed, not sped up as it has, now.

So I can’t say. But I have much stronger opinions for those of you considering travel.

Wait.

Now that’s not without qualification. If a recession won’t significantly disturb your finances and future then don’t wait. If I’m right and a downturn of some kind is imminent, there’s actually no better time to travel than when everyone else isn’t. And once you get to your destination you’ll find that the everyday out-of-pocket costs are terrific. If you’re traveling to a destination with a foreign currency it’s likely you’ll benefit in that regards, too.

The experience I enjoyed in November, 2021, in the Serengeti was unbelievably marvelous, precisely because no one else was there, the cost of petrol was rock bottom, the meals at Hemingway’s Resort cost half of what they do, today, and the shilling was at historic lows.

If you’ve already invested something in a trip, like a deposit or airline ticket, don’t bail. Cancellation fees would probably exceed the savings of waiting, and besides, I could be wrong.

But if you haven’t deposited on a trip, or if you haven’t yet bought your airline ticket, wait a while.

That’s also not without qualification. I’m about to promote an Ethiopian trip, one of the most fascinating places on earth. We haven’t been able to do so because of the wars, there. Ethiopia’s often been unsafe for much of my career. It’s safe, now. It’s time to go… if your resources and plans can weather a recession. It may not be safe when the new economic cycle begins.

So much depends upon your current economic situation, your own age, health and calendar, and of course whether you believe me!

But the clouds are gathering for something. Just look at the ads.