Floods Coming?

Floods Coming?

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East African governments are warning their citizens – many now in the devastation of a drought — that they should prepare for floods.

The Kenyan Meteorological Department has a mixed record of forecasting. In January, two months prior to the normal onset of the “Long Rains” in most of Kenya, it predicted they would be sparse if any. They were right. But the previous year they were very wrong when they predicted pretty normal rainfall for the “Short Rains” over most of the country.

The Tanzanian Meteorological Department is a bit better, and is expected today to issue a statement that will warn that an El Nino is expected to develop by November.

Both departments are taking their lead from a major conference that closed in Kenya, yesterday, attended by weather forecasters from 24 African countries. The “ 24th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 24)” closed in Nairobi warning that heavy rains are coming to East Africa.

The group based its prediction on the rising temperatures of large sections of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific ocean. It also extensively used the U.S.’ National Weather Service August 6 summary of the current El Nino. That statement said that El Nino is expected to strengthen and last through the end of this year into the beginning of next year.

The U.S. report said that the Pacific ocean temperatures were ranging from ½ to 1½ degrees C above normal, especially in the eastern equatorial regions that will effect East Africa. It continued that these temperatures will continue to increase even further leading to increased rainfall in the equatorial regions.

BA BAD BA

BA BAD BA

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British Airways used to be one of the best airlines into Africa. It still is, except that you can’t get a seat in advance!

I’m not sure if it was the subway bombing of 7-7 or if it was just a technological coincidence, but that was when British Airways began to deny preassigned seating. The policy was initially to only cover economy, the great bulk of its service, but EWT’s experience is that even business and first-class travelers can’t get seats.

The policy is that 24 hours prior to departure, you can go on-line to obtain your seats. But even that doesn’t seem to work.

Twenty-four hours before my 10:20a departure from London to Nairobi, August 25, would have been any time after 4:20a in the morning my time. I was already driving to O’Hare, but my wife tried for me on-line and received the message, “Sorry, on-line check-in is not available for this flight.”

Or for any other, in our experience.

At O’Hare, my American flight to London automatically checked me into the connecting flight down to Nairobi. And gave me a random seat! American pleaded forgiveness, but they were unable to do anything about it.

Still, couldn’t get online. Called BA in the U.S. and spoke with person after person, but they insisted that because American had checked me in, American had to check me out! And American said, no, it’s BA! So I called London. London said I wasn’t checked in, and I wouldn’t be able to check in until I reached there!

So now I’m in London and go to surrender the seemingly useless boarding pass that American gave me, and the BA rep shouts, “Don’t do that!” as I begin to tear it up with vengeance. “It’s perfectly good!”

“Can I change me seat?” I asked now sheepishly.

She didn’t know. It wasn’t a yes, and it wasn’t a no, and I was in Heathrow. After a few phone calls (yes, the antiquated phone call even as she was standing in front of an IBM blue terminal), I finally got a better seat, mainly because the flight was so poorly booked.

No wonder why.

SAHARA RAIN

SAHARA RAIN

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We were 3/4 through the journey to Nairobi. I looked out my window over the Sahara Desert… and watched a thunderstorm!

I couldn’t believe my eyes. Towering storms were forcing our 777 flying at 39,000′ to take little turns around them. Every once in a while, there was a break all the way down to the floor of the western Sudan, and taking my binoculars, all I could see was sand!

There weren’t even rocks, or oases as could be seen over Libya a few hours earlier, or even hard butte as often protrude above the Sahara sand. It was just… sand! And it was raining!

The scientific community is agog with the notion that the Sahara may be regreening itself as a result of climate change. National Geographic’s July 31 article seems to have condensed and collected most of the research, but the fact is that scientists have been mulling over the notion for the last decade.

The Royal Meteorological Institute in De Bilt, the Netherlands, has been predicting a greening of the Sahara for nearly ten years. Among their projected events are “thunderstorms over the Sahara” exactly as I had seen.

But whoaa, Nelly! The above information is also being widely used by bloggers and other to support a notion that climate change ain’t all that bad.

It seems intrinsically true that any event that would give Africa more food or water is essentially a good one. But a number of researchers, including the famous Dr. Stefan Kröpelin of the University of Cologne are ardently showing us that any climate change that happens as fast as seems to be happening, now, has no precedent and might not be good.

Several years ago a few scientists suggested that the Sahara Desert formed in a very short time. Peter B. deMenocal of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory claimed that most of the Sahara could have been formed within only a few centuries.

Kröpelin’s polite but aggressive challenge in a May, 2008, article in Science suggests that the majority of the scientific community doubts that earth ever changed that quickly. Although he didn’t say so, many of us read between the lines: caution, George, any fast change isn’t necessarily good based on the historical record.

Certainly what’s happening in the populated African equatorial world, today, is not good. There has been such erratic climate over the last decade, that drought is followed by floods is followed by drought. If anything, social disruption has been the principle result.

Is this the silver lining? Or the mercury poisoning?

SEE BABY KILL

SEE BABY KILL

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The African country that most emulates the west is South Africa. See Baby walk. See Baby run. See Baby kill.

South Africa has long been an arms warehouse, and many believe it already possesses nuclear weapons technology. Its guerilla attack rifle, the NTW-20 is probably one of the most sought after insurgent weapons in the world.

Now with South Africa’s growing transparency, dark closets are being opened.

It seems the country is selling weapons to Syria, Burma, Libya, Venezuela and North Korea.

Trying to electrify the dark closet, Democratic Alliance MP David Maynier asked the country’s National Assembly, Wednesday, to debate the issue, and directly confronted the country’s Minister of Justice to reply to allegations that the “Axis of Evil” countries were being supplied with weapons. He pointed out that in some cases, this would be in violation of UN sanctions.

The South African government refused.

It’s a very touchy issue locally. Maynier is the Shadow Alliance’s Minister of Defense, a former South African “navy seal” who commanded submarines in the Angolan war. He’s no angel.

But he knows what he’s talking about. Supporters of the South African government will contend he’s just playing politics, and that were he in power, the government would likely be selling to the devil.

Either way, it’s unfortunate that the African countries we most praise and which seem to be doing best in that economically black continent are doing so at least in part by spreading death and destruction.

Note any similarities to Big Brother?

As Goes KQ

As Goes KQ

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Kenya Airways’ labor turmoil is the latest in a series of devastating economic blows to Kenya.

Everything’s back to normal at Jomo Kenyatta International airport after four days of hell. Kenya Airways’ employees struck the airline last Friday, grounding more than half the flights and sending the country’s tourist infrastructure into chaos.

It was the last thing that was needed in this miserable market right now. First there was the political turbulence of December, 2007, which has never fully been rectified. Then, the world economic downturn. Then, the drought. Now, this.

Kenyan hoteliers are incredibly depressed. I spoke with one in Kenya this morning, and she is normally an upbeat, cheerful sort, now mumbling about trying to change jobs. The strike was over by Monday afternoon, but on Monday morning major lodges in Kenya’s Maasai Mara had put out one day two-for-one offers. “Not very many takers,” I was told today.

Kenya seems to be turning into this behemoth of things past. When I reflect back as recently as 2006, the Kenya of today seems to have little that’s similar.

Kenya Airways was one of the great stars of Kenyan development. Truly in a mere ten years, it outpaced its nearest rival, Ethiopian Airlines, which has been around since 1940! Ethiopian Airlines is a great airline, with an extensive network, but never has managed any marketing. Kenya Airways trumped them, here, and by 2005, had a greater revenue stream and profit than Ethiopian.

The Economist Magazine even named Kenya Airways best business airline of Africa in 2004, a title that had been retained by South African Airways for decades. This was in part because of the airlines clever move to turn its business class (which is very nicely priced) into full flat beds, long before other airlines were considering this.

The fleet is new, full of 777s and beautiful, sharp interiors. Have you flown recently on an airline where the flight attendants regularly clean the bathrooms every two hours? Try KQ!

And the airlines astute partnerships with local carriers like PrecisionAir, and its vested part merger with KLM, secured it to both the local and world markets.

This was a short-lived strike. The unions wanted a 130% pay increase, and they settled for 20%. Even that was grand, given that the airline has laid off no staff despite drastic reductions in revenue in the last year.

Good luck KQ. We use to say in America, as goes GM so goes America. Well, as goes KQ, so goes Kenya.

Is Kenya safe enough for a Honeymoon?

Is Kenya safe enough for a Honeymoon?

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From RachDogger@

Q.    My fiancee and I want to go on safari for a honeymoon, but we’ve been told it’s not safe to visit Kenya.  The U.S. State Department shows warnings.

A.    I’ve written a lot about this, and you might want to read my blog to the left, “Is Kenya Safe?”  I think it is … safe enough.  And also keep in mind, there are many options to Kenya in Africa that will give you a fabulous honeymoon!  The short answer, though, is YES, Kenya right now is safe enough.  Now for the lengthy explanation of what that means, see my blog.

DROUGHT CRISIS

DROUGHT CRISIS

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Two years of lower than normal rains followed by a complete lack of any rain in certain East African areas has resulted in the most serious drought in a century.

Yesterday, the Kenyan cabinet in a special session mobilized its army to assist the police and civil departments with distribution of food and water. Areas north of the equator (about 40 miles north of Nairobi), including the great lakes and east from them, represent a square of devastation the likes of which we haven’t seen in a century.

The World Health Organization estimates that a third of Kenya’s 34 million people are now without enough food. The Kenyan agricultural ministry has announced that the annual grain harvest will fall short of the country’s needs by two-thirds. (Last year, Kenya exported grain.)

For tourists, it can be heart breaking for those still visiting most of Kenya’s game parks. In fact, the only game park which seems to be relatively OK is Kenya’s best park, the Maasai Mara. There is still a bit of water in the Mara River, but more importantly, there had been good rains through last week, providing the large herds of animals with grass fodder.

As I write this, though, there has not been a drop of rain in the Mara for a week. This is unusual, as the Mara is normally pretty wet right through September. But for the time being, the Mara looks OK.

And all the game parks south of the Mara, which include all of Tanzania’s parks, are also OK. They aren’t normal, as they, too, have suffered from two years of lower than normal rains, but the rain didn’t turn off completely on them as it did over north and eastern Kenya.

There have even been reports of sprinkles of rain over the southern Serengeti, not unheard of but not normal for this normally dry time. Lakes Ndutu, Masek, Eyasi and Manyara, however, are almost bone dry. The Grumeti River is dry. Only the Balaganjwe is still flowing.

The greatest tragedy is not for tourists, though, but for the local population. The Kenyan agricultural ministry estimates that already half of the hoofed stock in the country is dead. In more remote areas like Samburu and Meru, this has resulted in gun battles between clans warring over the last stock that exists. The military has actually had to intervene, in one notable case, blasting apart two warring clans on the bridge over the Ewaso Nyiro River going to Samburu.

Most of Kenya is now under a water rationing program. In many populated areas, two days of every week have no public water service.

Zinj’s Golden! Birthday?

Zinj’s Golden! Birthday?

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Unfortunately, we don’t know the exact date that Australopithecus boisei was found by Mary Leakey, but it was in July, 1959 and reported in August. Time to celebrate!

The discovery of Nutcracker Man in 1959 was the single most important paleontological discovery that jump started the science, quashed forever (except in weird and extreme circles) creationism, and paved the way for the next 50 years of jaw-dropping science.

We don’t know the exact date he was found, and like Africans everywhere he goes by a number of different names. Zinj seems to be the most used, a shortening of the initial scientific designation of Zinjanthropus boisei. “Zinj” is an Arabic contraction of “East Africa”. For most of my lifetime, though, it has been known as Australopithecus boisei.

And because Mary Leakey’s diaries and the entries in the National Museum in Nairobi differ by several days, we aren’t even absolutely sure of the exact date Zinj saw the sun for the first time in more than a million years. Possibly July 17, possibly July 25. And the actual announcement of the discovery wasn’t until August. (I read it in the “Weekly Reader” in October.) But good grief, you can’t fault a two million-year old creature for forgetting his date of discovery by a few days.

The Leakeys had excavated tirelessly Olduvai Gorge for 28 years before finding Zinj and were widely considered to be kooks. When the then Princess Elizabeth made a state visit to the colony of Kenya in 1954, Lewis Leakey was warned if he met the princess to “not say anything about that early man gibberish.”

Zinj was probably the 3rd or 4th early man skull to have been found, but the first to be reckoned as such. And shortly after the scientific community accepted its near million-year age, the other skulls that had been masquerading as chimp-like primates in South Africa were unmasked as true hominids. The science exploded.

Today we have nearly 10,000 early hominid remains and nearly 1,000 early hominid skulls or partial skulls. That’s quite a feat in less than twice the time the Leakey’s spent in finding the first!

And to think of the twists and turns in theory and application that Grandpa Darwin prepared for us, once these important pieces of evidence were unearthed! Shortly after the Zinj discovery, it was widely and near unanimously presumed by world science that hominid evolution was linear: old lemur to old ape to old chimp to old man to us.

We now understand that’s a grade schooler’s explanation of calculus. We know now there were at least 22 different kinds of early hominids. In fact, even today, there’s uncertainty where Zinj belongs. Most people think he’s an australopithecine, but there’s growing evidence to suggest he’s actually a paranthopus! Wikipedia is lobbying for that.

So happy birthday (or, rather happy unearthing?), Zinj! How amazing to see in my own lifetime your entire story from ungrave to exalted cradle of display: For today your actual self is on PUBLIC DISPLAY in the Nairobi Museum!

That gives me goose (or should I say, pterodactyl) bumps!

Hillary stirs the pot!

Hillary stirs the pot!

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Keeping political secrets in Kenya is about as successful as damming a raging river with a Maasai shuka. But did Hillary intentionally leak the culprits’ names?

Before leaving Kenya, Hillary held a number of high profile meetings with activist politicians and local leaders. She said she was going to “name and shame” the list of culprits already drawn up by the Kenyan government as responsible for the 2007 election violence.

Short of economic sanctions, this is what governments do. They start by denying entry visas to certain individuals, an executive power that really stings. High profile politicians travel to developed countries much more than you might think. Did anyone know, for instance, that Kenya’s Prime Minister and central figure in the Kenyan political miasma was in Washington recently?

But they come for other than diplomatic reasons. They bring their children to good colleges. They shop. They bank. They invest bulging pockets. They often come incognito, because these are tasks the people at home don’t want to know they have.

According to the U.S. Customs and Immigration Department, at any given time, there are “thousands” of names on lists for denied entry of this sort.

It matters little to us that some potentate who has aggrieved the U.S. ambassador in Doha can’t shop at Macy’s. But it matters a lot to the citizens of Qatar, and when it leaks out at home, it’s worse than being forced to sit on a stool in the corner with a dunce cap on.

Hillary let it be known that the Kenyan Attorney General, Amos Wako, and the head of the national police, Hussein Ali, were on the bad boys’ list.

These are two dunces who sometimes get mean. Wako has served as Attorney General for 30 years. Both hold their position, because of their centrist political power from the tribes whence they come. Removing either of them could unbuckle the complex coalitions of power that keep both the current rivals, Odinga and Kibaki, in power.

As to their actual sins, I think they’re both minor players who have basically functioned as little as possible to keep themselves in power. That’s the Kenyan way. I don’t think they masterminded violence, for example, like William Ruto, the current Agricultural Minister who should be shackled and displayed on the public square. But I think Hillary’s point is that they both hold positions that should now be used to cleanse the body politic. And they aren’t. At least not in the way she would like.

One of the reasons the Truth-and-Reconciliation Commission won’t happen, is because Wako is moving the whole process to The Hague. Another important reason is that Ali is working with Scotland Yard and the FBI more closely than he is with Kenyans. This might get out the truth more effectively, but as Hillary explained (and as most foreign leaders agree) it would be better to have a Truth-and-Reconciliation Commission in Kenya than trials in The Hague.

And as many in Kenya hope (more than believe), a Truth-and-Reconciliation Commission might be so bold as to implicate Wako and Ali by their 30 years of negligence.

But it seems that Kenyans in power believe that the further that the truth comes out from Nairobi, the better for Kenya.

Hillary’s Warning

Hillary’s Warning

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The U.S. Secretary of State is in Kenya delivering a strong message that she won’t make clear. Let me help: Kenya’s Minister of Agriculture has to go to jail.

A small consortium of western democracies joined the U.S. 18 months ago in promising more than $10 billion in reconstruction aid, as a part of Kofi Annan’s plan to reconcile the two opposing candidates in the violent December, 2007, elections. Hillary is reading the receipts to Kenya’s leaders, but between the numbers is a man called William Ruto.

Part of Annan’s plan accepted by all sides was that something akin to a Truth-and-Reconciliation Commission be set up to determine once and for all who was responsible for the violence which killed more than 1,000 people and displaced nearly 150,000.

The signed agreement required the Kenyan Attorney General to complete a study and list suspects. That secret report was completed and couldn’t be too badly corrupted, because it was completed with the active assistance of the FBI and Scotland Yard. That list has already been given to Annan. The signed agreement further gives Annan the right to take this list to the World Court at The Hague, if Kenya doesn’t adjudicate the matter itself.

And right now, it doesn’t look like Kenya will. For some good politicians in Kenya, this is as it should be, since any judicial inquiry overseen by the Kenyan politic is likely to be corrupted.

The now infamous list of the “top ten” most likely suspects, still being kept secret by Annan, has Ruto at the top of its list. Ruto is one of the most ruthless men alive. Like his Kalenjin tribal predecessors, Daniel arap Moi (the dictator for 21 years) and Nicholas Biwott (Moi’s hatchet man), Ruto comes from Eldoret. He has a militia. He is a gangster that has skimmed off food aid during a drought. And to no one in Kenya is there the least doubt that he ordered widespread ethnic killing.

What’s particularly sad for me is that he was on the “right” side, the ODM, the one that Raila Odinga led honestly and openly to the election. Ruto was instrumental in the electoral victory and not just with dishonest means, but with all the necessities for an election victory: money, mostly.

They were never good bedfellows, Odinga and Ruto. Odinga was a real moral champion, transparent, straight speaking, an underdog you could identify with. Ruto for all his life was in the shadows pulling strings, making billions, growing more powerful everyday. But in Kenya’s dire society, tribalism rules. Kalenjins and Luos, Ruto and Odinga, was a match made even stronger because “Ruto et thugs, Inc.” was a part of the dictatorial regime of Arap Moi that the current president democratically overthrew. And current President Kibaki is Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s rival and nemesis.

I believe that the violence started with no organization. It began among the poor in the slums who had voted and who had won with Odinga. And when the election was stolen from them with tactics not so dissimilar to Bush stealing power from Gore, the fires exploded.

And the police over reaction was terrible, and the police were part of the establishment, and so the inevitable counter reaction ensued. For all we know the people truly in power may have truly felt a civil war had begun. And that’s when William Ruto got out his militia, his brownshirt brigades and lashed back with a ferocity that not even the police could match.

And for his money, his power and his “defensive” reaction from the perspective of a civil war, he was awarded the Ministry of Agriculture.

And now, he is the most wanted of the secret list of most wanted men. And any tribunal, in Kenya or The Netherlands, will have to deal with that. And that – more than any other single reason – is why both President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga – the archest of rivals ever imagined – together oppose a tribunal as well as a trial in The Hague. Both are trying to sweep the matter under the rug.

Kofi Annan will not wait forever. The day will come when William Ruto’s name is postulated for infamy. And Hillary is probably trying to explain that it would be better to do it in Kenya than on the world stage.

It’s not going to be a pretty play.

PLANE CRASH

PLANE CRASH

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The Wilson airport plane crash on Saturday is no indication tourist flying is dangerous.

The pilot was killed and the three passengers were seriously injured last Saturday when a small plane of the sort which ferries tourists about Kenya crashed into an apartment building near Wilson airport.

The indications from Nairobi are that the crash was pilot error, and there have been a few other such crashes in the last decade all attributed to pilot error. Admittedly, many of the pilots flying East Africa’s small commercial aircraft are kids who can’t get jobs back at home.

There are especially many Americans, Brits, Australians and South Africans. Even before the economic downturn, the demand for new pilots was weak in the developed world. And one way to raise your name in the queue was to get as many commercial flying hours in as possible, anywhere in the world.

It’s not an unreasonable way to get experience, and while I might call them “kids”, I’ve never felt they were anything but completely safe. Many are recently discharged from armed forces.

And statistically, the average of about one small plane crash annually in East Africa is very good, given the number of flights that occur, and compared to other parts of the world. The rate, for example, is twice as good as for Alaska.

In this particular case, it appears that there was a small film crew aboard trying to get closeups from the air of the Kibera slums, which is right across the road from Wilson Airport. The plane flew too low.

Fortunately, no one on the ground was hurt.

Small aircraft are essential to operating a good safari. This particular crash was of a plane owned by the African Inland Missions (AIM), an outfit that rarely charters out to tourist groups. The main tourist group airlines: AirKenya, Safarilink and Boskovitz, have had no plane crash for more than ten years.

Is Kosher available on safari?

Is Kosher available on safari?

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From SimonandMariaLWagner@

Q.    We recently returned from a wonderful safari to South Africa (Kruger, Phinda and Bushkloof) which we had been planning for some time, because we need kosher meals throughout.  Now we’d like to visit Tanzania.  Is this possible?

A.    Right now, no.  If you stayed most of your time around the bigger cities of Arusha and Dar-es-Salaam, taking short day trips to nearby parks, then it could be arranged.  And I know of a few cases where kosher meals were actually chartered in from South Africa, though that would have been very, very expensive.  So for now, I’m afraid the answer for normal budgets is no.

OUT OF AFRICA

OUT OF AFRICA

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25 years ago the final shots of the movie that made East Africa famous were just being shot. And today the controversy continues….

The 1985 movie, Out of Africa, was being completed in Naivasha, Kenya, almost exactly 25 years ago. The last scene shot was actually in the middle of the movie, where the lions attacked Isaac Dinesen (Meryl Streep), because director, Sydney Pollack, hadn’t been satisfied with earlier takes.

I remember that wonderful year, 1984. We were all deeply involved in outfitting the movie, since there were so many people there to shoot it. I never learned a number, but it had to be hundreds. There’s never been a movie shot in East Africa before or since with such a large number of people involved.

My movie friends in Kenya tell me that today the technology has improved so dramatically that cameras and lights and booms now replace people. The largest media productions recently have been the BBC’s Big Cats series, and those were mostly “associate producers” who would be scooting around the Mara in tiny Suzuki’s looking for something to shoot.

When it was finally found, the “set team” would be called in, and we would see scaffolding, lights, platforms and giant cranes with moving cameras set up at remarkable speeds, all sometimes to shoot a family of 7 or 8 lion sleeping. It was remarkable, especially how fast it was done.

But 25 years ago, Sydney Pollack was so dissatisfied with the lion attack scene that, according to Meryl Streep (who played Karen) today (in contactmusic.com), he endangered her life to get a better shot!

Streep has always claimed, and the late Pollack has always denied, that he “unleashed” the lions to get a more realistic scene as they were set again on Streep.

The lions by the way came from Los Angeles and were trained as movie lions. But that never mollified Streep, who has always claimed that she was traumatized for life by what she’s often termed a “reckless move.”

It was a great scene!

Best Time To Go

Best Time To Go

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First-timers always ask, “When is the best time to go?” to East Africa. There’s no easy answer, but there are many wrong answers!

I got a lovely email this morning from Amy who is planning her safari honeymoon. Honeymoons are a large part of any tourism business, and according to lovecarnival.com, more and more couples are not going on the honeymoon right after the wedding, but rather waiting until “just the right time.”

Honeymooners also spend more on their trip than the average tourist, and more than they will spend on future trips in their near future. So honeymooners, especially, want to get it all right. So there’s no better person for me to answer, “When’s the best time to go,” than the soon-to-be-married Amy!

So I haven’t answer, yet… I loathe this question, but Amy has motivated me. It’s time to try. But beware, this isn’t going to be easy.

First of all, “best” reflects an incredible personal bias. “Best of what?” Best animal viewing? Best weather? Amy understandably wants to end her trip on a beautiful East African beach, so that helps immensely in giving her an answer. She obviously doesn’t want to celebrate her marriage on a beach when it’s storming. East Africa doesn’t have hurricanes, but it has pretty awful coastal storms from about the end of April – the middle of August. So for Amy, at least, no summer trip.

But then “best of what” next? I’m continually amazed at all the bad advice posted on sites like TripAdvisor. For a safari, it seems that whenever anyone goes is the “best” time. Well, it obviously was for them, and that’s the point.

There’s virtually not a time in the year when people aren’t on safari, and virtually all of them are having a great time. And that’s because a safari is so dynamic and exciting, no matter when it occurs.

Cop out. Well, sort of, but I’ve lived there. I’ve spent my life there. What if I asked you, “When’s the best time to visit your home town?” I suppose we all have our preferences, but then we start to think about a bit more carefully.

Yes, it’s 20 below outside my window in January, but my gosh how beautiful it is! And if you like snow – well, we have skiing, skating, snowboarding, and it’s the best time of the year to see bald eagles! Then, again, right now in the fullness of summer, the forests are outstanding, the hike along the river trail…..

So you see, it’s simply not easy to answer. But there are many wrong answers:

Don’t trust any advice from someone who’s been only once or twice. They’re probably very earnest, but they just don’t have the experience. They might be very worthwhile in directing you to an expert, but they aren’t the expert.

Don’t read travel brochures. All they want to do is sell you something.

Beware about magazine and newspaper articles. They used to be very unbiased and good, but in today’s media crunch, they’re more often infocommercials than real information.

Guide books can be very useful, but make sure they’re current. A Lonely Planet guidebook can lose value in just a few years. This is as true about the weather (with global warming) as about the best lodge (decaying with time).

My personally favorite time to go on safari is March and April. That’s when I schedule my migration safaris, and when I’ve most enjoyed guiding for the last nearly 40 years. And here’s my bias:

1) It’s the wet season in northern Tanzania, and that makes it the most beautiful time of the year. Quite apart from wild animals, the landscapes are at their most spectacular.

2) It’s the only time of the year when the entire wildebeest migration is concentrated in a single area: the southern grassland plains of the Serengeti. This is the greatest wildlife spectacle on earth.

3) It’s a low season! Yes, that’s right! So there are fewer people and prices are lower.

But I’ll be quick to qualify my bias. In April many of the better camps and lodges close, because there just isn’t enough business. Keep in mind this has nothing to do with game viewing or weather or anything else except that April and May worldwide are the months with the fewest travelers.

So someone insisting on “optimum comfort and style” every single night should not join my April safaris.

I think the best game viewing occurs in March and April, but this is mostly true just for the great plains where there aren’t any trees! A lot of East Africa is bush, and during March and April game viewing in the bush can be challenging. The forests are full and dense, and the animals are dispersed, because food and water is available, everywhere. At the height of the dry season (October) a 12-day safari normally finds between 60-70 lion. During the wet season (April and May) it’s usually only half that.

So someone whose “best time” means “seeing the most lions”, then I’d advise traveling in October.

What about babies? The most animal babies occur in February and March.

Temperature? Hottest times in January and February; coldest times in July.

Rain? Forget about this. It absolutely doesn’t matter if it’s raining or not.

Snakes? Best time during the rains, in … oops.

Birds? Best time is when the largest numbers of migrants can be found: January – March.

Elephants? During the dry season: June – October.

Prices? Cheapest March – June; most expensive around holidays and July & August. This is as true for on the ground services as for your airline tickets.

So now that I’ve totally confused you, let’s make it simple. My favorite time is March and April, but it may not be your favorite time, for all the reasons above.. and many more.

The best way to get a straight answer is to ask a straight question. Make sure before asking you know, like Amy, some important things that you want or are expecting. Then, the answer will be easier, too!

Tourism Plummets

Tourism Plummets

by Arusha ♥ 0 Leave a Comment

As tourism to East African continues to plunge, Kenya’s mistaken approach is to lie about the statistics.

Last week Kenya’s Central Bank reported that “tourism continues to do well” and that visitor numbers were up nearly 55.4% over last year. Read a bit further. Actual revenues, which the CBK can’t lie about as easily, dropped 6.5%.

Last year saw a precipitous decline in Kenyan visitors because of the political violence at the beginning of the year. Revenue numbers are inflated by the CBK’s use of Shilling/Dollar conversion techniques.

The Kenya Tourist Board states it more truthfully. Annual numbers this year are likely to be 60% of those in 2007, before the political violence.

The truth is further told by the tourism companies in Kenya. Major companies like Cheli & Peacock, Abercrombie & Kent and Sarova Hotels have instituted 20% pay cuts, and reduced work schedules by 20%. At first this might seem like a fair if generous move, but it’s basically to avoid paying the high severance fees mandated by Kenyan law.

And with nothing at all to do with lying statisticians, Kenya’s drought is devastating tourism even further as many companies (like EWT) substitute Kenyan itineraries with Tanzanian ones.

Uganda reports a decline of 30% in tourist revenues.

Tanzania seems to be fairing the best, but it’s nothing to write home about. At the end of June, eTurboNews reported nearly 30% of Tanzania’s tourist industry workers have been sacked and that revenues are likely to drop by nearly 10% this year.

I’m a numbers’ guy, and I’m frustrated that none of these numbers adds up. You don’t cut 20 or more percent of the working force if revenues are only dropping by 10%. But the cutting is real, can’t be disguised. Tourist numbers can’t be increasing by half, with revenues decreasing by 10%, despite impoverished explanations that discounting prices explains this.

It doesn’t. It can’t.

The truth on the street exceeds the institutional mumbo-jumbo. Nairobi and Arusha are awash with bottom feeders at the moment, like the U.K.’s Pathfinders, representatives of whom were seen scouring all the mid- to up-market properties that are currently stressed. The soon-to-open Holiday Inn in Arusha has reps on the street not just promoting the new property, but looking for other properties they can consume and rebrand.

The biggest rumor on the streets in Nairobi is that Canada’s Fairmont Hotels wants to off-load two nonperforming properties, The Ark tree hotel and the Aberdare Country Club, for under two million. Holy smokes! When Fairmont bought the properties 5 years ago they were valued at $6.5 million.

The reality pressures are building. I fully expect the premature publishing of 2010 rates by most major properties to be revisited, and that actual prices will fall even further.