DROUGHT TALLY

DROUGHT TALLY

Everyone wants a tally of the drought’s wildlife destruction now that it seems to be over. Here’s a start, temptingly premature.

Keep in mind that in a normal year we wouldn’t even be having rains yet over much of East Africa, and certainly not as heavy. And also keep in mind that the heavy initial rains of March, 2009, over northern Tanzania flipped off way too early.

Nairobi water works officials yesterday cautioned everyone not to start celebrating. The three dams that supply Nairobi’s public water were all below 35% capacity, and the heavy rains of the last 3 weeks have done little more than stop the continuing decline.

Water rationing in Nairobi continues.

We really won’t know until towards the end of November whether these “short rains” were sufficient to break the drought completely.

Nevertheless, yesterday the Kenyan Wildlife Service (KWS) issued a preliminary report; this simultaneously with National Geographic’s story about lost animals due to the drought.

According to the KWS about 2% of the wildlife north of the equator was lost, and 1% south of the equator.

The 1% figure is a bit misleading, though, because it’s bolstered by the wildebeest migration in the Mara, which originates in Tanzania where the drought was mild or nonexistent. Animals in Kenya’s Tsavo and Amboseli National Parks may have suffered up to a 5% decline. This isn’t because the drought was worse here than in the north, but because the north is a desert habitat to begin with, and the animals living there know how to deal with it better.

These are pretty significant numbers and might actually exceed the droughts of 1983 and 1998.

Most seriously, 40 of Kenya’s very rare 2,000 Grevy’s Zebra succumbed to the drought. “Losing these 40 is a significant loss,” said Mr Patrick Omondi, a KWS Senior Assistant Director.

500-600 hippos were lost. This is about 20% of that population. Their problem was that even in the Mara, which had rains throughout the entire drought, the hippos’ home in the Mara river (which arises in a drought area) fell below the minimum sustainable levels multiple times.

The hippos had to migrate, and there was nowhere to migrate to that was better. They had to fiercely compete for the 200 pounds of grass they needed nightly. Most died of starvation during failed attempts to migrate.

KWS says probably 300 elephants died, the majority of which were juveniles. Normally elephants abort their 22-month long pregnancy when a drought begins, but the explanation is two-fold. First, many of the juveniles were older than 3 years, but of those that weren’t, the three-year drought sort of snuck up on everyone this time. Rather than an all out whammy from the start (the normal pattern in the past), there were two years of declining rains before the door slammed shut this year.

The normal deaths by thirst and starvation were augmented by an increase in active poaching that always occurs during a drought. People need food.

Poaching for bush meat was so prevalent that butchers in large towns like Musoma (near the Serengeti) and Narok (near the Mara) openly hung the carcases of antelopes just as they would have cows.

And I think it was a wise political decision not to prosecute these merchants, as would have been the case had there not been a drought.

Elephant are not normally poached for food, but elephant poaching increased substantially. This is explained by a relaxation of CITIES rules that would probably have resulted in additional poaching even in good times, plus the drought which motivates individuals even further as their economic situation is more threatened.

KWS says that there were 189 confirmed elephant poaching incidents in the north in 2009, alone. NGOs in Amboseli and Tsavo have confirmed an additional 38 in the south.

“That’s the highest number of elephants poached since the international ban on ivory sales in 1999,” Mr Omondi said.

Predators don’t do badly in droughts, and only ten lions have been confirmed dead as a result of the drought. No predator isn’t a scavenger. And the likelihood is that their population actually increased.

If these numbers hold, it’s not so bad. Wild animals are resilient, and many scientists argue that natural culling is actually a necessary process. BUT… let’s just hope the numbers hold, and the drought is really over.

BORDER CLOSED

BORDER CLOSED

The border between Tanzania’s Serengeti and Kenya’s Maasai Mara has been closed since 1977. Despite hopeful signs earlier this year, it won’t be opening, soon.

Yesterday, the Tanzania Tourist Board (TBT) announced forcefully in Dar-es-Salaam that the rumors of a Balanganjwe border crossing reopening after more than 30 years were incorrect.

As I reported in June, I spoke with newly redeployed Kenyan border officials at Balanganjwe who had just arrived from Nakuru. The old post and buildings were being refurbished.

The much publicized East African free-trade agreement was signed, sealed and delivered to all the East African countries involved several weeks ago. Tourism was an important part of this agreement, and KATO, the influential association of Kenyan Tour Operators, hosted a news conference with Kenyan Government Tourism Minister Najib Balala, Monday, who “confirmed” that the border would open, soon.

No, says Tanzania. Worried that Balala went way too far the TBT broadcast emails all over the world — to embassies and consulates, to every operator they could find in Africa and elsewhere — saying this just wasn’t true.

“Esteemed clients,” the circular begins, the border will remain closed for “environmental reasons.” The TBT went on to explain that the “fragile ecosystem of the area… cannot be sacrificed for the purpose of shortening the route between Maasai Mara and Serengeti National Park.”

What a joke.

Read my blog of September 17. The Tanzanians, and the TBT in particular, are doing everything possible to avoid environmental concerns in new development plans for the Serengeti.

The business plan of the multimillion dollar new airport and new roads and many new lodges would be seriously undermined if access to the Mara was made easy.

The border originally closed in 1977 during an historic dispute over the ownership of the then East African Airways, which later became Kenya Airways. In the seventies, Kenya was the only prosperous country of the three Britain had hoped would become a single confederated East Africa: Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya.

Uganda was in the bowels of Idi Amin. Tanzania’s socialist experiment while doing wonders for education was not producing a very good bottom line. The seven aircraft of East African Airlines that flew between Nairobi and Europe were jointly owned by the three countries, but only Kenya had the resources to maintain them.

In a lightning quick move the Kenyan government in cahoots with then British Petroleum confiscated the planes when (remarkably) they were all together on the tarmac in Nairobi (not a very wise way to use aircraft). In less than an hour, the Kenyan Supreme Court bankrupt the airline, then let the Kenyan government buy it for what amounted to the debit on the books owed by Tanzania and Uganda (which, of course, Kenya had already covered to keep the airline going).

In retaliation Tanzania closed all borders with Kenya and confiscated all the Kenyan tourists equipment in the country: Landrovers, minibuses, charter aircraft… and tourists. More than 130 tourists were held hostage for several days until Pan Am flew a mercy flight into the country to evacuate them.

Tanzania and Kenya are the best of friends, now. But the move in 1977 provoked a development of a real Tanzania tourist industry, which until that point had been completely dominated by Kenya.

As time passed there just was no reason for Tanzania to give up growing advantages. Tanzania’s wilderness is generally considered better and more exciting than Kenya’s wildernesses, and certainly less crowded.

Kenya gets the heads up for better service and facilities, but Tanzania so far has managed to have the upper hand with lions and wildebeest.

What is so ironic about this is that by invoking “environmental concern” Tanzanian officials are actually paving the way to over development in the Serengeti as I explained in the September 17 blog.

Opening the border would all but kill many of the new expansion plans set for the Serengeti, truly a move consistent with greater “environmental concern.” This sort of sounds like the health insurance industry claiming concern for the health of the U.S.

Big Game Hunting

Big Game Hunting

Uncontrolled, big game hunting is resurgent in Uganda. I believe big game hunting contributes to conservation if carefully controlled. Problem is, it’s not being controlled at all.

The only reason tourists first came to Africa was to hunt. One of the world’s greatest conservationist, Teddy Roosevelt, was a big game hunter.

That changed radically in the 1960s and 1970s, and as elephant poaching approached catastrophic levels, Uganda and Kenya banned hunting altogether.

That’s changing. The economic climate is so bad in East Africa, and growing elephant populations are so menacing, that both Kenya and Uganda are reconsidering their positions.

Reports surfaced today in Kampala that the Uganda Wildlife Authority was suppressing a completed report on a hunting experiment near Lake Mburo National Park in the southwest. The UWA commissioned the experiment eight years ago, and the presumption is the only reason the report is being suppressed is because it’s unfavorable to hunting.

And so hunting continues in that area, beyond the experiment’s end date, and with no report on how it went.

Worse, Uganda’s most prolific blogger, Wolfgang Thome, reported today that sitatunga, an endangered animal on CITES appendixes, is among the animals being advertised for hunting. Zambia, Cameroun and the Central African Republic also allow sitatunga hunting.

Click Here to read a report by South African businessman, Gavin Godfrey, who returned from a Ugandan sitatunga hunt in August operated by Lake Albert Safaris, a hunting company owned by South African hunter, Bruce Martin.

What’s interesting about this report is that it occurs outside the experimental zone presumably controlled by Ugandan authorities, on sequestered and little known islands in Lake Victoria. Moreover, the cost of the hunt is extraordinary, further underlining the stealth currently involved in Ugandan hunting.

Martin’s company normally concentrates in a gazetted experimental area at the north end of Lake Albert, and normally advertises for abundant game like kob.

Sitatunga is another matter. Sitatunga shouldn’t be hunted, and clearly the high cost will now attract the wealthy hunter around the world. It’s a lot easier to hunt in Uganda than in the jungles of Cameroun or CAR. The absence of the UWA report on hunting complicates the matter and further suggests graft at fairly high levels.

This is not how big game hunting should be managed by a responsible government.

SAD ZIM

SAD ZIM

Some of my fondest memories are of safaris in Zimbabwe, and since March the power sharing agreement seemed to be working. It’s all coming apart, now.

Who would have thought that the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, would today be Zimbabwe’s prime minister? Or even more unlikely, sharing government with the same man who had beat him to a pulp?

But that’s what happened last March, following the UN-managed elections which Tsvangirai won beating the aged dictator, Robert Mugabe. Problem was Mugabe wouldn’t concede power, so as seems trendy today, the two adversaries formed a coalition government.

No one thought it would work. For the first few months, the only country in the world that recognized the new government was South Africa, which had mediated the agreement.

A few months later, more governments recognized the coalition as it seemed to be holding. Each side divvied up the ministries pretty fairly, although Mugabe kept all those with hard weapons. All ministers got Mercedes.

By July some of us felt Tsvangirai was capitulating to the dizziness of power. Nothing was really happening in Zimbabwe to move the country out of its xenophobic, racist ways. Near random land distribution was still uncontrolled. The country printed its first one trillion dollar bill. Mining was still dead. All the country’s great resources were still not being used, and all that was keeping it alive was South African aid.

And most telling of all, refugees kept flowing out of the country.

But then, remarkably to this person anyway, by September there seemed to be some hope. For the first time ever it looked like tobacco was actually being replanted (the country’s dominant crop). A few new pieces of equipment arrived at the Hwange Coal Mine. And EWT started to get promising little notes from safari operators throughout the country.

So – we thought maybe – Africa has worked magic, again. David and Goliath are playing cribbage.

Yesterday, it came apart.

Tsvangirai confirmed to a South African radio station (where he is on a lecture tour) that Mugabe has issued an order forbidding any of Tsvangirai’s party members – including ministers in the current government – from leaving the country.

Presumably if Tsvangirai returns, he’ll be under house (country) arrest. Mugabe’s move follows a cabinet meeting Tuesday that Tsvangirai’s party boycotted. And to make matters worse, it looks like some of Tsavangirai’s coalition, including Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara, may be shifting over to Mugabe, who after all holds all the keys to all their Mercedes.

In my opinion, this is the beginning of the end. No protestor alive has paid his dues more than Tsavangirai, who has been beaten unconscious several times by Mugabe supporters, jailed innumerable times, and who even lost his wife this year in a car accident that remains incredibly suspicious.

Maybe the wounds are just too deep. Maybe Tsavangirai believes the time is ripe to fracture the coalition. Maybe someone knows that finally Mugabe really is dying.

There’s no bread on the shelves in Harare. But there are lots of new Mercedes.

OIL COUNTDOWN

OIL COUNTDOWN

Chinese engineers today began drilling one of the deepest exploratory oil holes ever tapped into Mother Earth, near Isiolo in Kenya.

Isiolo is the last major town north of Mt. Kenya before continuing into the Great Northern Frontier. It’s about 25 miles from Samburu National Park.

The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has been all over this place for the last year. It paved a 30-mile long road through the desert in six weeks (I’ve been waiting for 20 miles of this for 20 years), two of its workers were deported for trying to smuggle ivory, and at least in Isiolo the Yuan has replaced the Dollar as the main form of bribery.

The 2½ mile deep well will probably strike oil. CNOOC’s geological studies concluded last year that there were enough measurable hydrocarbons at that depth to warrant the $20 million investment in this first deep hole. The company has spent $15 million over the last two years on roads and research.

If it’s successful, another $100 million will be required to begin harvesting the black gold.

Kenya’s Energy Minister, Kiraitu Murungi, is already bubbling.

“In a matter of days, “ he told Kenya’s East African newspaper on Thursday, “we could be celebrating. God willing, I shall be announcing a historical discovery at the end of the month.”

There’s no question it would be a boon to Kenya, greatly needed right now. The country’s extended drought and turbulent politics needs some stabilization, and oil could bring it relatively quickly.

Much of the troubles as a result of the drought have been in this area, including armed conflicts between different tribes. It would be a long time before the black gold found its residue in Kenyan banks, but certainly there would be a fairly quick job creation in the area.

Murungi must be pretty confident. He has just agreed to deliver the keynote address at the 16th Africa Annual Oil Week conference in Cape Town on November 4!

Best Camps in the Mara?

Best Camps in the Mara?

From MotherGoose335@

Q.    We’re planning our safari right now for next summer and we’re going to be ending in the Masai Mara in Kenya.  When I went online to see available places to stay, I was absolutely overwhelmed, there are so many.  Do you have any recommendations?

A.    I know exactly how you feel!  There are around 6400 bed nights in the Maasai Mara and surrounding private reserves, more than 100 different properties and camps.  Before I tell you my favorites, here are some guide lines for deciding.

First, about half of these are actually inside the reserve, with the other half outside in private reserves.  This is very much a southern African model.  Consider the great Kruger National Park in South Africa.  Most of the lodging is actually outside the park in private reserves like Sabi Sands.

But this model doesn’t work as well in Kenya as it does in South Africa.  The game viewing in the Mara is absolutely better inside the reserve than outside.  But it is also much more crowded inside the reserve than outside.  So for better game viewing: inside the reserve.  For a more exclusive or boutique experience: outside the reserve.

The time of year matters.  If you are traveling to the Mara when the wildebeest herds have normally arrived from the Serengeti (late June – October), then your best bet is to stay as far north in the reserve, or as far south outside the reserve, as possible.  (Except for when they just arrive and just leave.)   For the rest of the year (November – May) it really doesn’t matter, as the game viewing throughout the areas is about the same.

Budget is very important.  Right now there are three main budget levels: $200-300 per day per person; $300-400 per day per person; and more than $400 per day per person.  (These are gross averages.  During the lowest seasons, these could be reduced by 50%; during the highest seasons, like the December holidays, they are doubled.  There are discounts available in all sorts of ways at all times of the year, and your final costs will also have to at least include transport and park fees.)

The lowest budget level really restricts you to the larger lodges, and there is often nothing wrong with these other than that they’re larger.  There are a few camps at this level, but none that I would recommend.  So at this first level, I like Mara Sarova Lodge.  Also at this level, I like the Mara Serena Lodge but its location is good only seasonally, from July – October, and the company is very directed to large suppliers rather than individual bookings.

Most of the properties are in the mid range, and of these my recommendation is solidly Governor’s Camp.  Governor’s actually owns and operates a family of camps in the Mara, and it is Main Governor’s that falls in this range.

At the top end I like Sala’s Camp and Olonana Camp.

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but I hope it gives you a start.  And note one thing: they are all inside the reserve.  For me, game viewing is the most important thing!

CLIMATE NEWS

CLIMATE NEWS

Heavy rains do seem to be arriving, dangerous wild fires close Arusha N.P., and African nations prepare for the Copenhagen Climate Change summit.

This evening at Larsen’s Camp in Samburu National Park, Jeremy told me that it had begun to rain over the park, and that the Ewaso Nyiro River had started flowing again five days ago.

This confirms the broad satellite photos we can access, which are showing heavier than normal rains appearing earlier than normal and spreading out radially from Lake Victoria.

Fear that the rain may be too heavy, as was the case with the last El Nino in 1998, have led to some villages near normal bodies of water to evacuate. Basouto Island Village, a fishing village in the Manyara district of Tanzania, reported widespread evacuation.

The 1998-99 El Nino came after several years of less than normal rains, and the terrible flooding was made worse by horrible landslides. Although this year’s El Nino is not expected to be as strong, the drought it follows has been much worse. Erosion and landslides are likely to be more severe.

But it will take some time to recover the rainfall deficit, and last week Arusha National Park was closed because of a wildfire that was raging out of control. As of today, it is still not controlled. The fire is creeping up to the summit, actually away from the major tourist areas, but they have still been closed out of precaution the wind could change.

Meanwhile, African nations are continuing to pow-wow in Addis Ababa to agree on a single position at the world climate change talks on December 7 in Copenhagen.

At the last round in Kyoto, the African nations in particular felt snubbed, especially by the Bush Administration. Western lobbyists got them on board with the Kyoto Protocol, only to have the U.S. pull out at the last minute.

This year the African nations plan on insisting that “above current aid levels” the developing countries promise an additional $200 billion per year to assist with carbon reduction in emerging African economies.

East or South for our Family?

East or South for our Family?

From LeeAnn1023@

Q.    We are planning a family safari vacation now that our kids are in college, and the great debate is whether to go to East Africa or South Africa.  What do you say?

A.    Both destinations are fabulous.  And they are very different.

Think of East Africa as more like “the Congo than California.”
Think of southern Africa as more like “California than the Congo.”

East Africa is more exotic, much less developed, has much better game viewing and not a whole lot else.  Southern Africa has good game viewing (not as good as East Africa), but that’s usually just a part of a good itinerary, there.  It has lots of safe adventure acitivities like hiking and rafting and surfing, a deep and fascinating history with lots of wonderful museums, and extremely modern and exciting cities like Cape Town.  Oh, and by the way, Victoria Falls.

More and more, people are beginning to treat southern Africa very much like they treat Europe or South America.  East Africa doesn’t have that diversity, yet.

Here’s a good gauge for game viewing.  On a 12-day trip to East Africa in the summer (when family vacations usually occur) you can expect to see 80-100 lion.  On a 12-day trip exclusively game viewing in southern Africa, you’ll likely see around 20 lion.

So if your question is for game viewing, it’s hands-down East Africa.  But if you want a wider experience than just game viewing, then southern Africa is the answer!

Dummying ARDI

Dummying ARDI

Last night Discovery Channel ratings skyrocketed with a two-hr documentary on Ardi. Ardi is a big, very big paleontology story. But when newer (older) finds are discovered in the future, Ardi’s lasting story will be something quite different from paleontology.

To me the unchangeable story about Ardi is the remarkable way it was told. Enough of Ardi was found in 1994 to give it a name and place in the tree of early man. But jealous scientists held the bulk of the data secret for nearly 15 years, until – in their words – they could tell the whole story.

This should be criminal. Essentially a handful of scientists molded Ardi almost as successfully as 4 million years burial by mother Earth.

Last night’s Discovery Channel two-hour prime time show was Ardi’s coming out party. It was grand, but way overblown. The University of Minnesota biologist, P.Z. Myers, remarked during his real-time blogging while watching the show, “So far this program is taking longer to watch than it took me to read the original papers.”

The two-hour show had so many commercials, and so much repetition, that the real talking-head substance was less than 35 minutes.

Ardi is an amazing paleontological find for several reasons. First, it’s a complete-enough skeleton to render science on an entire individual. There are only three other such cases (Lucy, Turkana Boy and Small Foot).

Second, so much excavation has been completed over these 15 years at the Middle Awash site in Ethiopia where it was found that an entire environment surrounding the creature has also been reconstructed.

Third, Ardi is truly bipedal, but retains anatomical features – particularly in the foot – that are more chimp-like than man-like. Ardi may have been as comfortable living in the trees as on the ground.

But the grand conclusions that the project’s two lead scientists, Tim White and Owen Lovejoy, headlined in HD, were simply premature if not silly.

Ardi has not completely rewoven the theories of early man, as Tim White repeatedly suggested. It is a single, albeit magnificent find, but it does not alter good foundations that hominids evolved 6-7 million years ago into a multiple branching line of creatures.

White’s hidden agenda is to return to a long ago discarded notion of a single line of hominid evolution. That’s what’s silly. Clearly, White has been focusing too much time on Ardi and not enough on his fellow scientists’ discoveries.

And Lovejoy’s outrageous claim that Ardi’s reduced canines suggests a more gentle, more “moral” human social organization is absurd.

The state of Ardi’s mouth is anomalous with other time-lined hominid mouths. In other words, other early hominids around that time and after that time, had bigger canines. Chimps have bigger canines, and Lovejoy’s presumption of theory by contrasting these two situations is a real stretch, and in fact, worrisome. It’s less science than religion.

Lovejoy is right to refresh the question, why bipedalism? And he provides at least one renewed and exciting thesis: to better carry food longer distances. But from that he leaps to the notion this allowed male Ardi’s to woo female Ardi’s with gifts, and allowed Ardi’s to carry food back to their children.

Soon, Lovejoy is going to discover a florist selling corsages 4.5 million years ago.

And there is nothing to suggest that baby Ardi’s didn’t travel on their mother’s back or held to their bosom like baboons and chimps and didn’t need to have food brought to them.

But the greatest disservice to science is the way the lead scientists, and the Discovery program suggests Ardi’s bipedalism revolutionizes prior theories.

The discovery that an early, bipedal hominid probably spent a good amount of time in the trees is extremely important and wondrous, too. But it does not in its single instance suggest that bipedalism was not somehow related to the developing savannah ecology, a view at least until now widely held. This will be the science to watch in the coming months.

University of Wisconsin anthropologist, John Hawks, summed it up beautifully in his blog today,
“I don’t think the anatomy supports the film’s representation of the locomotor behavior. The film shows Ardi walking just as if she were Lucy. She didn’t walk that way.”

I’m sure there’s much more intricate science I’ll never understand that will be of major dispute, and I presume this for the simple reason that science withheld is science uncertain.

Years from now there will be new finds and even older hominid discoveries. Ardi will remain important, but its persistent story will be how guarded its discoverers were, and how successful they were from keeping Ardi from the greater community for the better part of a human generation.

And analysis will shift from bipedalism to why, a long time ago when Ardi was discovered, scientists had to guard their finest discoveries to carefully construct outrageous claims about them.

TITUS the gorilla

TITUS the gorilla

This U.N. “Year of the Gorilla” couldn’t have come at a worse economic time, and as if to underscore the sadness, the great Silverback Titus has died.

Probably the most studied mountain gorilla on earth, Titus, died September 14 at the age of 35. He was survived by uncountable progeny and most importantly his son, Rano, who killed him.

Titus lived in Rwanda’s Volcano National Park, the master for so many years of the Susa Group. His birth was recorded on August 24, 1974, by American researcher, Kelly Stewart. He was observed every day thereafter until researchers at the Karisoke Research Station found him dead in his nest in the morning.

Rano had been hassling him for months. Titus avoided fights – he was still bigger but not as strong as his son – but the researchers who buried him in the gorilla cemetery on September 16 (at the site of the original Karisoke Research Camp) said he had just “given up” to Rano’s incessant bullying. Thirty-five is a ripe old age for a wild gorilla.

There was no autopsy. Researchers do not think he was sick. He was just old, and hassled by his son.

During his life he made films (click here) , was WikiPedia’s poster child (click here) , and even headlined the BBC World News (click here) . Simply put, he was the baseline not only for mountain gorilla research, but the rise of tourism that ultimately saved this endangered creature.

The heavy sort-of El Nino rains that were predicted had started two weeks earlier. New bamboo shoots were sprouting everywhere, and this meant that the gorilla families didn’t have to wander so much each day to feed. More time for bickering, I guess.

It is an oustandingly beautiful time in the park. Some of the orchids continue to bloom as the rains begin, the already lush jungle bursts out in fresh color and smells, and the whole mess of foliage is filled with rainbow colors of elegant Arum Lilys, wild versions of Geraniums, Hyacinths, Aster Daisys, Lupins, Dahlias and Nasturtiums.

The greatest of the turacos moves into its spectacular breeding plumage, looking like a giant blue soccer ball piercing the green, its monkey-like grunting echoing all over the place.

It was probably his favorite time. So make your bed, go to sleep and let pesky Rano take over.

BOATS & PLANES

BOATS & PLANES

The troubled Indian Ocean combined with the troubled skies of air carriers is causing great pain among long-haul travelers, now.

Seabourn Cruises is the latest to suspend its cruising in the Indian Ocean. CEO Pam Conover said today the piracy issue was the main reason, and it probably is, but so is reduced demand. Recently Seabourn was extending a 50% discount for bookings on its Seabourn Legend. They had never offered such deep discounts before.

And according to a Brookings Researchers report issued yesterday, you better expect to be missing about one in five of your airline connections in the next year!

It’s a confusing report to many laymen, because it shows that on-time performance is improving. But the problem is that even though the airplane may be loaded and ready to go, or may even be in the air a minute or two early, more than 10% of all such aircraft are being delayed from landing by air traffic controllers.

As a result one in ten aircraft is arriving two hours or more later than scheduled!

So don’t plan a trip with too many connections, and if you do, give yourself way more than two hours to connect.

BBC TRUTH?

BBC TRUTH?

The BBC reports today that “rival ethnic groups in Kenya … are rearming in readiness for violence at the 2012 poll.” Their sources are weak.

With as many as a half of Kenya’s educated 20-30 year olds out of work, with perhaps as much as $1 billion of “stimulus” provided by the western nations, with a persistent drought we hope will soon end but hasn’t yet, I think any half-baked journalist could find people in Kenya who are buying and selling guns.

The BBC’s Wanyama wa Chebusiri claimed to have “discovered arms dealers selling sophisticated weaponry in the Rift Valley.”

This, Wanyamawa, is not news.

For years and years you could go into any crowded slum of Nairobi and get an AK-47 for around $100, and at times, for as low as $50. The route into the troubled heart of Africa goes right through Kenya. The land route to the Somali pirates begins in Kenya.

I don’t like it, but Kenya has been an arsenal for years.

The BBC quotes a “Kipkorir Negtich” from a group the BBC calls the “Eldoret Human Rights Resource Centre” as their principal source.

I can find limited references to either the man or the group. Kenya is filled with progressive human rights groups with active websites and enthusiastic members. There doesn’t seem to be either for this group. The only reference I can find to the man is one in 2002 where he allied himself with Eldoret clergy against alleged instances of torture.

The BBC then tried to corroborate itself by asking Kenya’s deputy minister for internal security, Orwa Ojode, about the charge. Ojode said he was “aware of the problem” and blamed it on Kenya’s neighbors.

Ojode is a thug who was in the cabal of former national police commissioner, Hussein Ali, who recently “retired.” He is one of the few members of Parliament that have actually been censored by the Parliament (May 8 of this year) for threatening another member during floor debate.

A week ago a number of Kenyan blogs (click here) announced that Ojode was trying to move up politically and might be arranging a few publicity stunts. What a source for the BBC!

I’m not disputing the BBC claim entirely. I’m just saying that the source is weak, the situation may not be new, and it may not imply – as the report clearly does – that there is an escalation of tension.

Animals or People?

Animals or People?

Animals or PeopleThe photograph to the left was taken Friday by Nairobi’s FM Capital radio station in Nyauhuru (formerly Thompson’s Falls) at the north end of the Aberdare National Park. An elephant and a hippo became mired in the Ewaso Nyiro River (the same river which normally flows through Samburu National Park) as it was drying up. Both animals are well outside a protected park, but were desperate for water.

Rain has come heavily to parts of western Kenya, but it is still early for the rains in this part of the northern Rift which has experienced such a devastating drought. It isn’t due for several more weeks.

Meanwhile, the struggle continues. This photograph was taken, according to FM Capital Radio, shortly after Kenyan police dispersed protesters who had gathered at the site when Kenyan wildlife officials arrived with tractors to free the animals.

“Save us, not the jumbo!” was the cry of the crowd. Tear gas canisters were finally shot at what was estimated to be about 300 people, dispersing them.

The World Food Program estimates as many as ten million people in Kenya are starving as a result of the drought. When the animals were first found, the local populations was attempting to kill them for butchering.

The Kenyan Wildlife Service finally freed the two animals before herding them out of the area.

Kenya Models Iran

Kenya Models Iran

The political intrigue surrounding the western world’s response to Iran’s nuclear program is being implemented right now in Kenya.

A first step that an aggrieved society takes against the accused is diplomatic. That threatens and is followed by economic sanctions. And that is exactly the course that the western powers, especially Britain and the United States, began implementing against Kenya last week.

The western world has invested over $10 billion, more than two years of the Kenyan Government’s entire budget, to help Kenya reform itself after the catastrophic 2007 election turmoil that killed over 1300 people and displaced as many as 150,000.

The two protagonists in the election, sitting president Mwai Kibaki, and principle challenger, Raila Odinga, did forge a coalition government that ended the violence, an agreement engineered almost single-handedly by Kofi Annan.

But that agreement included pledges for a number of subsequent reforms, including significant constitutional reform, to avoid a repeat in 2012 and to bring to justice those who had perpetrated the violence. Despite a very active and public diplomatic effort ever since, including prominent involvement by Secretary Hillary Clinton, really little has happened.

The Kenyan press is furious. It is truly fair to say that the Kenyan population in a very wide majority wants these reforms. But the sitting politicians have lagered to protect one another.

The “List of 15″ culpable politicians compiled by the ICC chief prosecutor, Moreno Ocampo, is already pretty well known despite it being a sealed indictment. Among the most powerful named are Kenya’s Attorney General, Amos Wako; William Ruto, a powerful and evil man who has held a number of ministerial posts and who was originally nominated by Raila Odinga to be his prime minister; and recently fired national police head, Hussein Ali.

Wako and Ali have been around for nearly 30 years, surviving radically different democracies and dictatorships because their power base is so strong. Ruto arrived on the scene in 1992 and has been involved in a variety of huge scams, including milking the national pipeline of billions.

After months of threatening the action, last week Britain finally banned these three and 17 other prominent Kenyan politicians from entering the U.K. The U.S. ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, delivered 15 individually addressed letters to Kenya’s Foreign Secretary on Thursday, presumably doing or threatening to do the same thing as Britain.

Few in the world noticed outside Africa. Libya’s Muammar Ghaddifi, as this year’s Head of the Organization of African Unity, responded by successfully passing an African-wide resolution that urges all African States to withdraw from the international institutions being used to implement the sanctions. Right now, that’s mainly the ICC, the International Court in the Hague.

The actions by Britain and the U.S. have caused quite a stir in Kenya. Most of the press strongly supports it, and once again I think the Kenyan press truly reflects the country at large. At the same time President Kibaki has sent an urgent diplomatic letter directly to President Obama, something that is rare and unprecedented in Kenya.

Today, Kofi Annan returns to Nairobi to try to get things going, again. Not a moment too soon.

Ardi’s Story Begins

Ardi’s Story Begins

Fifteen years ago one of the most important early man fossils was found in Ethiopia. Is this really the discovery of the century?

Yesterday what is arguably the most important discovery of an early hominid since Lucy in 1974 was officially reported in the journal, Science, by a team of 7 researchers that have jealously guarded their findings for almost a generation.

Personally, I look forward to a wonderful weekend of dissecting the voluminous information about Ardipithecus ramidus. But over the last 15 years a lot has leaked out, and what struck me in the great fanfare yesterday, was that where was some really weak science as the rekindling of personal fights between scientist celebrities gets into high gear.

If there is a team chairman, it’s Tim White of the University of California – Berkeley. Throughout his imminent career White has almost always been Number Two. He’s now Number One. And this despite the fact that it was actually Yohannes Haile-Selassie, the curator of the Cleveland Natural History Museum who actually made the find.

White moved north to Ethiopia from Kenya in the mid 1990s when he was shunned by his former Number One, Richard Leakey, who was admittedly turning the rich fossil grounds of East Africa into a personal dynasty. Time and again White was passed over in conferences and by scientific journals for the much less academic and probably less scientifically acute, Leakey.

Haile-Selassie is a gentle man, one of those scientists really consumed by his work. His interest in the media is minimal. He really is the lead scientist in this discovery, but he makes a poor front man, and White saw his chance.

Much of Ardi’s skull was found in 1994, but scientists knew at the time that the area in which it was found was rich with more of crushed Ardi, plus all of Ardi’s real time surroundings. That’s a bit unusual. Often fossil finds are separated from their “homes” either by geological or current weather forces. The fifteen years of excavations produced not only 110 Ardi pieces, but ten times as many other animals that lived at the same time.

This led to a reconstruction of an Ardi skeleton, and Ardi’s “home.” That’s really the biggest news. There are only three other skeleton finds of early man. And it’s very rare to be able to create an entire environment for the fossil found. There are some exciting finds: that this early man, for instance, lived mostly in the trees.

For the last 15 years, White was a bit obsessed for fear he would lose control. It’s not really congenial or useful science to keep your finds reserved to your own team for so long, but he managed to do so. We’ll let him try to explain why.

Here’s the first indications of poor popular science. These are the sound bites, newspaper articles and television spots that will win these scientists fame and grants. It’s always a dumming down of science, but I find two of these really flabbergasting.

FIRST, no one is mentioning Toumai. Toumai doesn’t really have a scientific name, yet, because there is such quibbling between its discoverer, Michel Brunet, and especially, Tim White. Brunet insists he is Sahelanthropus tchadensis, distinctly hominid. If so, at 6 million years old, it absolutely makes Toumai the oldest hominid found.

White has continually rebuffed Brunet using a pretty weak argument: so little of Toumai was found – his fossil is limited to his skull. But that’s the case with thousands of early hominids. But alas, guess what, White has a nearly whole skeleton!

SECOND, a lowly member of the scientific team, Owen Lovejoy, an imminent scientist in his own right, is purporting some pretty unusual conclusions that I think would make Jay Gould and Charles Darwin turn over in their graves.

Lovejoy embraces a very controversial notion that behavior preceded biological evolution. Ardi’s physiognomy was much more modern than earliest man. The size of the male and female were not as divergent, and neither had monkey-like teeth. Lovejoy – presumably endorsed by the other team members – claims that these physical aspects were the result of a developing social family relationship between the male and female.

He even claims that it is likely that male Ardi’s wooed female Ardi’s with presents to get them to mate. (The presents being food.) He believes that the social behavior “allowed” for the later evolutionary trends that made men and women similar, and that ultimately “allowed” the human brain to grow considerably after birth, so that the baby could make it through the mother’s birth canal.

This is really stuff for a Simpson’s Show, and I would find it laughable if it weren’t vaguely representative of cultural zealots too often taking charge today in America.

Already, less celebrated scientists like William Jungers of Stoney Brook are taking aim at this popular unveiling of what might not be quite as big as the media would like.

“This is a fascinating skeleton, but based on what they present, the evidence for bipedalism is limited at best,” said William Jungers, an anatomist at Stony Brook University in New York State.

Without a real demonstration of bipedalism, Ardi could not be considered a hominid at all. If she isn’t a hominid, she wouldn’t rank the first 14 minutes on World News Tonight with Charles Gibson.

Stay tuned.