The predicted El-Nino rains are beating East Africa and reversing the drought completely, causing mayhem anew.

Nairobi’s Standard newspaper reports now that five people swept away by running waters have been confirmed killed throughout Kenya. Two major bridges, one linking the mainland with Lamu, has been swept away, and major roads into the north are completely gone.

The seriously damaged parts of the country seem to be just outside of the tourist circuit, which is nonetheless getting significant rainfall.

But the flash floods, destroyed bridges and swept away (dirt) roads are in Kenya’s west, coast, north and far north-east. The essential center of the country, the Rift Province, is receiving heavy rainfall, but not a deluge.

In Tanzania the areas around Lake Victoria are getting drenched and heavy rains are falling elsewhere in the north, but not with the vengeance over much of Kenya.

In Uganda, areas around the capital of Kampala and the main airport at Entebbe are soaked, as is the mountainous west.

In any other year, this would be considered a blessing. But what is happening over much of the area is massive erosion and mud slides following three years of little or no rain.

The rains began as I reported two weeks ago, about two weeks early. Normally they would slowly be ending in December in Kenya and Uganda, then moderating but not ending in northern Tanzania.

East African governments are warning their citizens – many now in the devastation of a drought — that they should prepare for floods.

The Kenyan Meteorological Department has a mixed record of forecasting. In January, two months prior to the normal onset of the “Long Rains” in most of Kenya, it predicted they would be sparse if any. They were right. But the previous year they were very wrong when they predicted pretty normal rainfall for the “Short Rains” over most of the country.

The Tanzanian Meteorological Department is a bit better, and is expected today to issue a statement that will warn that an El Nino is expected to develop by November.

Both departments are taking their lead from a major conference that closed in Kenya, yesterday, attended by weather forecasters from 24 African countries. The “ 24th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 24)” closed in Nairobi warning that heavy rains are coming to East Africa.

The group based its prediction on the rising temperatures of large sections of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific ocean. It also extensively used the U.S.’ National Weather Service August 6 summary of the current El Nino. That statement said that El Nino is expected to strengthen and last through the end of this year into the beginning of next year.

The U.S. report said that the Pacific ocean temperatures were ranging from ½ to 1½ degrees C above normal, especially in the eastern equatorial regions that will effect East Africa. It continued that these temperatures will continue to increase even further leading to increased rainfall in the equatorial regions.

We were 3/4 through the journey to Nairobi. I looked out my window over the Sahara Desert… and watched a thunderstorm!

I couldn’t believe my eyes. Towering storms were forcing our 777 flying at 39,000′ to take little turns around them. Every once in a while, there was a break all the way down to the floor of the western Sudan, and taking my binoculars, all I could see was sand!

There weren’t even rocks, or oases as could be seen over Libya a few hours earlier, or even hard butte as often protrude above the Sahara sand. It was just… sand! And it was raining!

The scientific community is agog with the notion that the Sahara may be regreening itself as a result of climate change. National Geographic’s July 31 article seems to have condensed and collected most of the research, but the fact is that scientists have been mulling over the notion for the last decade.

The Royal Meteorological Institute in De Bilt, the Netherlands, has been predicting a greening of the Sahara for nearly ten years. Among their projected events are “thunderstorms over the Sahara” exactly as I had seen.

But whoaa, Nelly! The above information is also being widely used by bloggers and other to support a notion that climate change ain’t all that bad.

It seems intrinsically true that any event that would give Africa more food or water is essentially a good one. But a number of researchers, including the famous Dr. Stefan Kröpelin of the University of Cologne are ardently showing us that any climate change that happens as fast as seems to be happening, now, has no precedent and might not be good.

Several years ago a few scientists suggested that the Sahara Desert formed in a very short time. Peter B. deMenocal of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory claimed that most of the Sahara could have been formed within only a few centuries.

Kröpelin’s polite but aggressive challenge in a May, 2008, article in Science suggests that the majority of the scientific community doubts that earth ever changed that quickly. Although he didn’t say so, many of us read between the lines: caution, George, any fast change isn’t necessarily good based on the historical record.

Certainly what’s happening in the populated African equatorial world, today, is not good. There has been such erratic climate over the last decade, that drought is followed by floods is followed by drought. If anything, social disruption has been the principle result.

Is this the silver lining? Or the mercury poisoning?

Two years of lower than normal rains followed by a complete lack of any rain in certain East African areas has resulted in the most serious drought in a century.

Yesterday, the Kenyan cabinet in a special session mobilized its army to assist the police and civil departments with distribution of food and water. Areas north of the equator (about 40 miles north of Nairobi), including the great lakes and east from them, represent a square of devastation the likes of which we haven’t seen in a century.

The World Health Organization estimates that a third of Kenya’s 34 million people are now without enough food. The Kenyan agricultural ministry has announced that the annual grain harvest will fall short of the country’s needs by two-thirds. (Last year, Kenya exported grain.)

For tourists, it can be heart breaking for those still visiting most of Kenya’s game parks. In fact, the only game park which seems to be relatively OK is Kenya’s best park, the Maasai Mara. There is still a bit of water in the Mara River, but more importantly, there had been good rains through last week, providing the large herds of animals with grass fodder.

As I write this, though, there has not been a drop of rain in the Mara for a week. This is unusual, as the Mara is normally pretty wet right through September. But for the time being, the Mara looks OK.

And all the game parks south of the Mara, which include all of Tanzania’s parks, are also OK. They aren’t normal, as they, too, have suffered from two years of lower than normal rains, but the rain didn’t turn off completely on them as it did over north and eastern Kenya.

There have even been reports of sprinkles of rain over the southern Serengeti, not unheard of but not normal for this normally dry time. Lakes Ndutu, Masek, Eyasi and Manyara, however, are almost bone dry. The Grumeti River is dry. Only the Balaganjwe is still flowing.

The greatest tragedy is not for tourists, though, but for the local population. The Kenyan agricultural ministry estimates that already half of the hoofed stock in the country is dead. In more remote areas like Samburu and Meru, this has resulted in gun battles between clans warring over the last stock that exists. The military has actually had to intervene, in one notable case, blasting apart two warring clans on the bridge over the Ewaso Nyiro River going to Samburu.

Most of Kenya is now under a water rationing program. In many populated areas, two days of every week have no public water service.

The drought in Kenya is seriously effecting many game parks, and may be headed for catastrophe by August.

The current drought is not universal across the region, and much of Tanzania seems normal if a bit dry. But Kenya, which is found in the two-rainy-season region of East Africa, is definitely reaching a crisis stage.

Yet there is also the continuing mystery of rains – sometimes heavy – that are falling out of any season over very small areas. Nairobi, the east central Aberdare, and the Chyulu Hills are receiving rain, now, during the normal dry season. This is great for many farmers in the central province, especially tea and coffee. But it’s outside the big game parks.

The two-rainy-season region, locally known as the Short Rains/Long Rains, is normally areas north and east of Nairobi. The single-rainy season region, locally known as the Dry Season/Wet Season, is normally areas south and west of Nairobi, including virtually all of northern Tanzania’s game parks. (You can learn more about the area’s climate, which for years has been misinterpreted by most tour companies, from earlier blogs.)

The huge Ngorongoro/Serengeti/Mara ecosystem – which may account for more than half of the entire region’s tourism – has been OK, at least until now. They are dry, but drought hasn’t yet occurred there as in Kenya.

Most of the entire area of Kenya and Tanzania has had weak rains over the last 2-3 years. It began with the mini-drought of February, 2006. This was normally a wet – although reduced wet – season for northern Tanzania, and virtually no rain fell. It returned to normal by the end of March, 2006, but never recovered the deficit of those previous six weeks.

In Kenya, the first indication was the failure of the Short Rains in central province and areas north of there in November/December 2007. This was exacerbated by the failure of the Long Rains over the same slightly expanded areas in March, 2008. The Long Rains of November, 2008, seemed to be normal in these areas, but just as they failed in other areas, including virtually all of Kenya’s north.

Of Kenya’s principal game parks, Samburu/Shaba/Buffalo Springs and Amboseli are currently the most seriously effected regions. The healthy animals are leaving or sick. The area is dust.

Elephants in Samburu have gone to Baragoi and towards the Aberdare. Hoofed stock and many birds have dispersed widely. Those that have remained are sick and the first dying can be seen. For the first time in my memory, I saw Maasai cows mingling with the last of oryx and Grevy’s zebra, as if they had collected as common refugees from a horrible catastrophe.

The Ewaso Nyiro River (which arises in the Aberdare) is still flowing from time to time, especially east and outside of the park proper, and the Isiolo River (which arises from underground rivers off Mt. Kenya). But this late dose of water can do nothing for the parched landscape that would normally have nutrient grasses and many browsable bushes and trees. Some acacia were trying to bloom, but I saw lots of dead ones.

According to researchers at Cynthia Moss’ elephant camp in Amboseli, only about 10% of the elephants are left there, and most of those are sick or dying. Amboseli is heart-wrenching, mostly dust with its swamps nearly dry. One of the researchers at Moss’ camp wondered if the park can ever recover.

The park’s swamps have never been lower. As much as 80% of the animals have left already, and many can be seen in desperate congregations along the very busy Nairobi/Mombasa highway, breaking farm fences and nibbling the last grasses and leaves in irrigated areas. It’s really rather amazing that we saw ten times as many giraffe at the side of the highway as we raced between 18-wheelers unable to stop to watch, as we did during our full two days in Amboseli.

In two days in Amboseli we counted 8 elephant carcasses and only 48 live elephants. All the swamps are remarkably low, in several cases showing their muddy bottoms. We saw no buffalo carcasses, but I expect that will shortly change as most of the buffalo we saw were sick. No weaver birds remain. The great majority of the park is grassless dust. We found a mysterious exception in the northwest part of the central park near the airstrip, where it must have rained for a day or so about a week ago. There was decent grass, but few animals. The hoofed stock had already left.

Rain will not normally fall anywhere in East Africa, now, until August at the earliest, and November throughout the whole region. If this dynamic holds, Samburu and Amboseli will be bereft of most life by mid-August.

Next worst hit is Tsavo. Tsavo is fed by numerous underground aquifers off Mt. Kilimanjaro, as is Amboseli. But Tsavo’s flow seems normal at places like Mzima Springs. Amboseli’s flows are not normal. It could be that Tsavo is benefitting from being out of the mountain’s rain shadow. Amboseli is just in the mountain’s rain shadow.

So Tsavo is receiving a supply of water the same way that Samburu is receiving some from its sand rivers, but Tsavo has had no rain, so there is no grass. Every hippo we saw was dead or dying, including 3 carcasses at Mzima Springs.

Tsavo is famous for its elephants, and the continuing availability of water might be able to stabilize that population. We saw enormous congregations of elephant by the Kilaguni waterhole and near the Severin Tsavo Camp swamps. They didn’t look particularly healthy, but they weren’t dying.

As were every buffalo we saw and many of the few zebra. We even watched baboon dying. I wonder if this episode will turn Tsavo into an elephant-only park.

The exception to Kenya’s misery is the Mara. At least until now, the rain has been normal or heavier than normal. The Mara and Talek rivers are the lowest anyone can remember, but they both arise out of escarpments to the west and north that are definitely in a drought. But the wildlife here is fabulous and healthy, and the wildebeest migration has arrived more or less on schedule. It’s now just a matter of whether the rains will continue – as they should – through September.

The drought could not have come at a worst time. Tourism is way down because of the economic downturn. We wait anxiously the possibility of the light rains that normally fall in isolated areas in August, and then the beginning of the heavy rains in November. But until that happens, most of Kenya’s prime tourist areas are dust.