Nine ElevenS

Nine ElevenS

My daughter watched a plane fly into a twin tower on 9/11 from her apartment roof in New York. I heard the bombing of the Kenyan embassy and ten minutes later from the garden of my nearby hotel pieces of eyeglasses, jangling key chains and fabric fell out of the sky at my feet. Both of us later saw horrible pain and destruction.

“August seventh” was as big to Kenya as nine-eleven was to America. The relative number of people killed and maimed, the heroism of rescuers, the damage to politics, economy and society – it was all comparable. Even the perpetrators’ beliefs, religion and motivations for suicide were the same. What was different?

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Calamitous Covid

Calamitous Covid

“But the greatest of the sins” is the sin of transmission. Ethnic cleansing is taking place at this moment, a novel genocide by a novel virus. The foot soldiers in this crime against humanity are we, the privileged, who have begun to travel too soon.

The unforgivable relaxation of our restrictions socially has led to large amounts of travel. This is heartbreaking. The virus will not be contained sufficiently if the privileged who know how and are capable of protecting themselves accelerate transmission to those less fortunate.

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Covid Construct

Covid Construct

The enthusiasm bubble is bursting. Tomorrow most of East Africa will be open for business. But… no one’s coming.

My African colleagues shouldn’t be too disheartened. It was always too hopeful to believe that the only thing keeping people back was government restriction. Two things need to be clearly understood: the current reality of the pandemic and how profoundly it will change future travel.

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Lasting Democracy

Lasting Democracy

Absolutely wonderful and absolutely fascinating. Four well-established conservative thinkers at a virtual round table:

Political commentator George Will, first and foremost. Historian Anne Applebaum whose just published book proves she takes no second place to any contemporaries. Journalist Canadian-American David Frum who more than any other living reporter documents the preeminent importance of compromise.

With… Joe Scarborough, the Trump anti-thesis, yet a TV personality to rival Trump. The four of them were on “Morning Joe” today. Their unusually long panel together reminded me (hopefully) of the African clergy who were so essential in bringing real democracy to the continent.

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Inspiration

Inspiration

Real surprise, yesterday. Here’s what happened.

Like so many Americans who spend a lot of their lives outside of the country, I’ve been forced to live otherwise because of the pandemic. For the first time in more than half a century since I was 20 years old, I’ve now been at home for an entire uninterrupted year.

I don’t like it. Read more

Covid Collusion

Covid Collusion

According to Kenya’s Star Newspaper, “Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. An October Surprise is practically guaranteed.”

The sentiment expressed this week in Nairobi is similar to what’s found throughout Africa. They hate Trump. They know his “bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc –“ is crazy and yet, there are still enough Americans who support him to make a reelection feasible.

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Covid Conjecture

Covid Conjecture

The first week of August is the most important week in my business. I’m usually home from safari, I settle down in front of tons of reports, access to my meticulous notes of more than twenty years, screens of internet and I survey the African political landscape.

Looking for upcoming elections. Once found I have to place a couple bets. Will they be violent or non-violent, and if non-violent will they still be disruptive or not? Then I place my bets and make the final touches on my winter safaris.

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African Digs

African Digs

For my African friends. Well… all my friends, and especially for those who live near Galena, Illinois.

Currently I don’t have potable water. Why I don’t have potable water reflects America today, dysfunctional and imploding. It’s sad and infuriating but for those of us who have lived much of our lives in places like Africa, it’s also very telling.

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Covid Collections

Covid Collections

An entire industry has now arisen to recover funds for travelers who have lost deposits because of the pandemic. Like timeshares, ambulance chasers, J.G. Wentworth and scores of others, the more well-off who are pissed as hell that some of their vacation money might be forfeited, are now themselves preyed on by dubious advocates.

To some of us it’s a delight to see capitalism eating itself to death.

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Getting Ready

Getting Ready

It will probably be three to four years before the effects of the virus stop impacting travelers to distant lands. Efficacy of the vaccines, mayhem in airline schedules, widely differing and radical airport rules for transfers and most importantly, the hugely damaged vendor communities are all just now being recognized as the travelers’ principle hurdles.

There’s little good evidence yet on the last three hurdles for a good prediction into 2021, although I venture some speculation below. On the vaccine issue, however, some things are coming into focus.

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Covid Conclusion

Covid Conclusion

At the halfway mark we can predict better what it’s all going to look like when we’re vaccinated at the beginning of next year. I do this specially wondering what my own industry, distant travel, will look like. Frankly it shouldn’t be much different for anyone in any endeavor.

Americans are different – quite different – from other nationalities. We’ve been hit the worst and we’ve handled it the worst. There will be special hurdles for us that others will avoid.

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Corona Competition

Corona Competition

Americans need to take off the blinders that they will get the vaccine, first. This notion is dangerous and woven inextricably into the November election. “It’s risky [to Americans]… and not ethically right,” WHO’s chief scientist told a Nigerian newspaper, yesterday.

Pediatrician Paul Offit who wrote the book about the kids who got polio from a bad initial vaccine warned Americans in Science Magazine that Trump’s “October Surprise” could be the announcement of a vaccine that won’t work.

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