Best Time To See The Falls

Best Time To See The Falls

colorado riverThe photo above of the Colorado “river” as it meets the ocean is being used by African environmentalists to stop Botswana from its planned new take of Zambezi water for irrigation.

The Zambezi forms on the border between Namibia and Botswana, where a number of other large rivers like the Chobe and Kwando converge. These rivers are formed in the mountains of Angola after seasonal rains at the end of the year.

Geographically odd, the mountains of Angola are the continental divide for this part of Africa, meaning essentially that the western portion of the divide is hardly more than a quarter the width of the eastern portion. Which means that most water and all major rivers flow eastwards across a large section of Africa into the Indian Ocean.devils.vicfalls

Such is the Zambezi River, which after forming and leaving Namibia and Botswana, runs past Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and finally, Mozambique.

And I’m sure you’ve heard of Victoria Falls, which is only 60k east of Botswana on the border between Zimbabwe and Zambia, where the then magnificent Zambezi tumbles over a mile-wide cataract forming one of the wonders of the world.

It’s a rather important tourist attraction.

Now Botswana has announced to the other countries downriver that it plans to extract a sizable amount of the Zambezi mostly for new irrigation projects.

Food, that is.

Which is exactly a part of the explanation for the Colorado running dry.

Now contrary to enthusiastic tourists who believe they can get up and go at any time to see Victoria Falls, that’s not the case. The Zambezi is an incredibly seasonal river. It never stops flowing, but its flow changes radically with the season.

In November, December and January, an extremely popular time for travel, as the waters are only just forming after the Angola rains, the flow is so small that people who view the falls then see mostly rock.

And by March when the flow is in full swing, the falls are so massive you can see hardly anything but mist.

The best time for viewing the falls is February, June, July and depending upon the water, August. That’s when the photographs were taken that first inspired you to view them.

And the eradicate flow of the Zambezi was so destruction to agriculture downriver from the falls, that years ago the massive Kariba Dam was built. Not only does it control about half the Zambezi’s length (from the middle of the continent to Indian Ocean) but it provides enormous electricity for the area.

So Botswana’s move, Botswana says, is not so radical after all.

But the Zimbabwean Minister of Water Resources Development and Management, Samuel Sipepa-Nkomo, is not so sure. He thinks the idea would be a “great threat” to downstream Zambezi communities. (Likely as great a threat as the current Zimbabwe government is to those communities.)

But try as it might have, the Zimbabwe government has been unable to effect the flow of Victoria Falls. This project will.

There would also be a benefit, if this extraction were accompanied by the building of a dam, which is also being suggested. The area is in dire need of more electricity.

It’s important to note this was long in coming. A Dartmouth University study predicted the impending conflict in 1998.

That study recommended that not just in Africa but everywhere that water is precious (like the Colorado) it should be proportionately paid for. In other words, if there are a 1000 cubic meters on average running through a checkpoint, then if projected use would take 10% of that, that government should pay 10% of what the water was valued.

I kind of doubt that will happen. It didn’t happen with the Colorado, where an elaborate inter-government agency lead by the EPA determines appropriate water use for the States.

A united Africa could also create such endeavors. But …

Meanwhile stay tuned for the altered best times to see the falls.

Hedgefunds Hurting

Hedgefunds Hurting

investmentOK, here’s the deal. Invest a thousand dollars to extract minerals from Africa, today, and your return will be $150,000 … after the rebels win the civil war.

Kilimanjaro Capital is a Belize-based company, with a Canadian website, and European capital listed on some Danish and other northern European exchanges. The CEO, Zulfikar Rashid, was born in Uganda and believes the best way to make money in Africa is to bet on civil wars.

I remember once trying to get into the business center at the Norfolk Hotel in Nairobi, before we were all drowned in wifi, and became a part of a congested line of anxious and poorly dressed white businessmen who were courting the then president of Somalia.

There have been many presidents of Somalia, until the recent spat of stability brought on by the Kenyan invasion last year. This was probably ten years ago.

The poorly dressed white businessmen had contracts coming out of their wazoo, busting briefcases and literally shoving one another to get this mercurial and previously unknown individual to sign his name on a contract for various and many mineral rights.

I’m sure in turn he was paid something on the spot, because I also picked up a few loose Euros at my feet in the line to the photocopier.

I got only a fleeting look at Abdul. He seemed a very thin if frail individual with very large black eyes and a scraggly, narrow black beard. He was dressed in native Somalia, all white robes with a white turban, and was dwarfed by two handlers, or body guards, who looked southern Italian and overfed.

As our line into the business center seemed to stop while one poorly dressed white businessman seemed to be copying the last ten Somalia constitutions, I started a conversation with the pretty rotund slightly dressed poor white businessman in front me.

He was a jolly Scotsman. Just flew in from Heathrow when he heard Abdul was going to be in town. He wanted the fishing rights just off the coast from Kismayo that were currently being pirated by French fishermen.

At the time Kismayo was the capital of world pirates. But this jolly dressed, poor white red-faced Scott was beaming. He wouldn’t tell me how much those rights would cost. Nor did he express sufficient confidence from my point of view that he would be able to fish in the sea dominated by professional pirates. But for some reason, it didn’t seem to matter.

Kilimanjaro Capital, though, is the first of such venture renegades that has achieved such respectability. And its still rather small portfolio is quite diversified, including some normal mineral rights claims even in North America.

But its success depends upon rebels, which are mostly today terrorists, taking control of African land rich with minerals but poor with organized society. Like Kivu province in the eastern DRC, or Biafra in Nigeria, or southern Cameroon.

These are all areas which have seen conflict for more than a half century. The mineral rights are critical to funding the rebel movements.

One of the biggest accomplishments of the Obama Administration from my point of view was a provision in the Dodd-Frank Act that made illegal such dealings with American interests.

It’s probably why Kilimanjaro Capital is located in Belize, has a website in Canada, is listed on a Danish exchange and is run by an Ugandan. I don’t think Dodd-Frank extends quite that far.

Betting on misery is, of course, nothing new. The Great Recession was caused by many such components. But more germane to the moment, I think that Director Rashid is doomed to fail, because rebel movements … well, they just aren’t doing too well lately.

Terrorism, yes. But actual regime changes or national secessions … no. And a contract with Osama probably wouldn’t work.

So let’s just marvel at how amoral, greedy and maybe just crazy part of the investment world is. And let’s just hope that there’s more and more Dodd-Frank worldwide to keep these renegades from spreading.

I’ve got a much better lead on a penny stock, anyway.

No Big Deal … Yet

No Big Deal … Yet

no big dealWhat Africans realize better than Americans is that for the last several years America has had to be run almost like an African dictatorship, as Congress closed itself down.

As a result, most of Africa shrugged off the U.S. government slowdown, today, not considering it very important to world affairs or economies. Still trusting in President Obama.

African newspapers and blogs were replete with excellent reporting filed mostly by Reuters and Agence France Presse. Both services specified all the areas where the slowdown will apply, and very little seems to impact Africa or abroad.

For example, a major concern was the processing of U.S. visas, and that will not be curtailed, since the White House has named foreign embassies and consultants as vital services.

Much of Africa’s media has pointed out how Obama like a beneficial African dictator simply declared most foreign services essential, so they aren’t effected.

The Federal Reserve and most foreign aid agencies will stay open.

Financial markets in India and most of Asia, as well as the U.K. also shrugged off the slowdown.

Only currency and commodity markets seemed to react in Africa, and they actually reacted well.

The ailing South African Rand firmed slightly and the price oil dropped slightly.

South Africa, which is so dependent upon the gold price, seemed to think gold would continue a slow recovery in price after tanking several weeks ago.

So what’s the big deal?

“Just to warn you… we will see yet another deadline on 17 October,” reports the influential FSP Invest from South Africa. The author also said South African markets “generally follow global markets” which will depend on U.S. news, especially this week’s non-farm payroll numbers the government (if the spokesman comes to work) announces Friday.

With Congress in virtual paralysis for some time, the U.S. economy has been driven mostly by fundamentals in place and Obama’s presidential directives that he’s been forced to use.

His recent Presidential Policy Directive (PPD) directed towards Africa to build trade has worked well. This would normally have been a part of legislated trade legislation, but with Congress in paralysis, Obama moved alone.

“More trade between Africa and the U.S.” was the recent headline in South Africa’s online “fin24″ financial newspaper.

Supported by recent figures released by the IMF, the head of DHL in South Africa attributed the increased trade to Obama’s PPD.

Of course, everyone knows it shouldn’t be this way. Or rather, this is the way African dictators work, authoritarian rulers that don’t have democratically elected governments.

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