BOATS & PLANES

BOATS & PLANES

The troubled Indian Ocean combined with the troubled skies of air carriers is causing great pain among long-haul travelers, now.

Seabourn Cruises is the latest to suspend its cruising in the Indian Ocean. CEO Pam Conover said today the piracy issue was the main reason, and it probably is, but so is reduced demand. Recently Seabourn was extending a 50% discount for bookings on its Seabourn Legend. They had never offered such deep discounts before.

And according to a Brookings Researchers report issued yesterday, you better expect to be missing about one in five of your airline connections in the next year!

It’s a confusing report to many laymen, because it shows that on-time performance is improving. But the problem is that even though the airplane may be loaded and ready to go, or may even be in the air a minute or two early, more than 10% of all such aircraft are being delayed from landing by air traffic controllers.

As a result one in ten aircraft is arriving two hours or more later than scheduled!

So don’t plan a trip with too many connections, and if you do, give yourself way more than two hours to connect.

BBC TRUTH?

BBC TRUTH?

The BBC reports today that “rival ethnic groups in Kenya … are rearming in readiness for violence at the 2012 poll.” Their sources are weak.

With as many as a half of Kenya’s educated 20-30 year olds out of work, with perhaps as much as $1 billion of “stimulus” provided by the western nations, with a persistent drought we hope will soon end but hasn’t yet, I think any half-baked journalist could find people in Kenya who are buying and selling guns.

The BBC’s Wanyama wa Chebusiri claimed to have “discovered arms dealers selling sophisticated weaponry in the Rift Valley.”

This, Wanyamawa, is not news.

For years and years you could go into any crowded slum of Nairobi and get an AK-47 for around $100, and at times, for as low as $50. The route into the troubled heart of Africa goes right through Kenya. The land route to the Somali pirates begins in Kenya.

I don’t like it, but Kenya has been an arsenal for years.

The BBC quotes a “Kipkorir Negtich” from a group the BBC calls the “Eldoret Human Rights Resource Centre” as their principal source.

I can find limited references to either the man or the group. Kenya is filled with progressive human rights groups with active websites and enthusiastic members. There doesn’t seem to be either for this group. The only reference I can find to the man is one in 2002 where he allied himself with Eldoret clergy against alleged instances of torture.

The BBC then tried to corroborate itself by asking Kenya’s deputy minister for internal security, Orwa Ojode, about the charge. Ojode said he was “aware of the problem” and blamed it on Kenya’s neighbors.

Ojode is a thug who was in the cabal of former national police commissioner, Hussein Ali, who recently “retired.” He is one of the few members of Parliament that have actually been censored by the Parliament (May 8 of this year) for threatening another member during floor debate.

A week ago a number of Kenyan blogs (click here) announced that Ojode was trying to move up politically and might be arranging a few publicity stunts. What a source for the BBC!

I’m not disputing the BBC claim entirely. I’m just saying that the source is weak, the situation may not be new, and it may not imply – as the report clearly does – that there is an escalation of tension.

Animals or People?

Animals or People?

Animals or PeopleThe photograph to the left was taken Friday by Nairobi’s FM Capital radio station in Nyauhuru (formerly Thompson’s Falls) at the north end of the Aberdare National Park. An elephant and a hippo became mired in the Ewaso Nyiro River (the same river which normally flows through Samburu National Park) as it was drying up. Both animals are well outside a protected park, but were desperate for water.

Rain has come heavily to parts of western Kenya, but it is still early for the rains in this part of the northern Rift which has experienced such a devastating drought. It isn’t due for several more weeks.

Meanwhile, the struggle continues. This photograph was taken, according to FM Capital Radio, shortly after Kenyan police dispersed protesters who had gathered at the site when Kenyan wildlife officials arrived with tractors to free the animals.

“Save us, not the jumbo!” was the cry of the crowd. Tear gas canisters were finally shot at what was estimated to be about 300 people, dispersing them.

The World Food Program estimates as many as ten million people in Kenya are starving as a result of the drought. When the animals were first found, the local populations was attempting to kill them for butchering.

The Kenyan Wildlife Service finally freed the two animals before herding them out of the area.

Kenya Models Iran

Kenya Models Iran

The political intrigue surrounding the western world’s response to Iran’s nuclear program is being implemented right now in Kenya.

A first step that an aggrieved society takes against the accused is diplomatic. That threatens and is followed by economic sanctions. And that is exactly the course that the western powers, especially Britain and the United States, began implementing against Kenya last week.

The western world has invested over $10 billion, more than two years of the Kenyan Government’s entire budget, to help Kenya reform itself after the catastrophic 2007 election turmoil that killed over 1300 people and displaced as many as 150,000.

The two protagonists in the election, sitting president Mwai Kibaki, and principle challenger, Raila Odinga, did forge a coalition government that ended the violence, an agreement engineered almost single-handedly by Kofi Annan.

But that agreement included pledges for a number of subsequent reforms, including significant constitutional reform, to avoid a repeat in 2012 and to bring to justice those who had perpetrated the violence. Despite a very active and public diplomatic effort ever since, including prominent involvement by Secretary Hillary Clinton, really little has happened.

The Kenyan press is furious. It is truly fair to say that the Kenyan population in a very wide majority wants these reforms. But the sitting politicians have lagered to protect one another.

The “List of 15″ culpable politicians compiled by the ICC chief prosecutor, Moreno Ocampo, is already pretty well known despite it being a sealed indictment. Among the most powerful named are Kenya’s Attorney General, Amos Wako; William Ruto, a powerful and evil man who has held a number of ministerial posts and who was originally nominated by Raila Odinga to be his prime minister; and recently fired national police head, Hussein Ali.

Wako and Ali have been around for nearly 30 years, surviving radically different democracies and dictatorships because their power base is so strong. Ruto arrived on the scene in 1992 and has been involved in a variety of huge scams, including milking the national pipeline of billions.

After months of threatening the action, last week Britain finally banned these three and 17 other prominent Kenyan politicians from entering the U.K. The U.S. ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, delivered 15 individually addressed letters to Kenya’s Foreign Secretary on Thursday, presumably doing or threatening to do the same thing as Britain.

Few in the world noticed outside Africa. Libya’s Muammar Ghaddifi, as this year’s Head of the Organization of African Unity, responded by successfully passing an African-wide resolution that urges all African States to withdraw from the international institutions being used to implement the sanctions. Right now, that’s mainly the ICC, the International Court in the Hague.

The actions by Britain and the U.S. have caused quite a stir in Kenya. Most of the press strongly supports it, and once again I think the Kenyan press truly reflects the country at large. At the same time President Kibaki has sent an urgent diplomatic letter directly to President Obama, something that is rare and unprecedented in Kenya.

Today, Kofi Annan returns to Nairobi to try to get things going, again. Not a moment too soon.

Ardi’s Story Begins

Ardi’s Story Begins

Fifteen years ago one of the most important early man fossils was found in Ethiopia. Is this really the discovery of the century?

Yesterday what is arguably the most important discovery of an early hominid since Lucy in 1974 was officially reported in the journal, Science, by a team of 7 researchers that have jealously guarded their findings for almost a generation.

Personally, I look forward to a wonderful weekend of dissecting the voluminous information about Ardipithecus ramidus. But over the last 15 years a lot has leaked out, and what struck me in the great fanfare yesterday, was that where was some really weak science as the rekindling of personal fights between scientist celebrities gets into high gear.

If there is a team chairman, it’s Tim White of the University of California – Berkeley. Throughout his imminent career White has almost always been Number Two. He’s now Number One. And this despite the fact that it was actually Yohannes Haile-Selassie, the curator of the Cleveland Natural History Museum who actually made the find.

White moved north to Ethiopia from Kenya in the mid 1990s when he was shunned by his former Number One, Richard Leakey, who was admittedly turning the rich fossil grounds of East Africa into a personal dynasty. Time and again White was passed over in conferences and by scientific journals for the much less academic and probably less scientifically acute, Leakey.

Haile-Selassie is a gentle man, one of those scientists really consumed by his work. His interest in the media is minimal. He really is the lead scientist in this discovery, but he makes a poor front man, and White saw his chance.

Much of Ardi’s skull was found in 1994, but scientists knew at the time that the area in which it was found was rich with more of crushed Ardi, plus all of Ardi’s real time surroundings. That’s a bit unusual. Often fossil finds are separated from their “homes” either by geological or current weather forces. The fifteen years of excavations produced not only 110 Ardi pieces, but ten times as many other animals that lived at the same time.

This led to a reconstruction of an Ardi skeleton, and Ardi’s “home.” That’s really the biggest news. There are only three other skeleton finds of early man. And it’s very rare to be able to create an entire environment for the fossil found. There are some exciting finds: that this early man, for instance, lived mostly in the trees.

For the last 15 years, White was a bit obsessed for fear he would lose control. It’s not really congenial or useful science to keep your finds reserved to your own team for so long, but he managed to do so. We’ll let him try to explain why.

Here’s the first indications of poor popular science. These are the sound bites, newspaper articles and television spots that will win these scientists fame and grants. It’s always a dumming down of science, but I find two of these really flabbergasting.

FIRST, no one is mentioning Toumai. Toumai doesn’t really have a scientific name, yet, because there is such quibbling between its discoverer, Michel Brunet, and especially, Tim White. Brunet insists he is Sahelanthropus tchadensis, distinctly hominid. If so, at 6 million years old, it absolutely makes Toumai the oldest hominid found.

White has continually rebuffed Brunet using a pretty weak argument: so little of Toumai was found – his fossil is limited to his skull. But that’s the case with thousands of early hominids. But alas, guess what, White has a nearly whole skeleton!

SECOND, a lowly member of the scientific team, Owen Lovejoy, an imminent scientist in his own right, is purporting some pretty unusual conclusions that I think would make Jay Gould and Charles Darwin turn over in their graves.

Lovejoy embraces a very controversial notion that behavior preceded biological evolution. Ardi’s physiognomy was much more modern than earliest man. The size of the male and female were not as divergent, and neither had monkey-like teeth. Lovejoy – presumably endorsed by the other team members – claims that these physical aspects were the result of a developing social family relationship between the male and female.

He even claims that it is likely that male Ardi’s wooed female Ardi’s with presents to get them to mate. (The presents being food.) He believes that the social behavior “allowed” for the later evolutionary trends that made men and women similar, and that ultimately “allowed” the human brain to grow considerably after birth, so that the baby could make it through the mother’s birth canal.

This is really stuff for a Simpson’s Show, and I would find it laughable if it weren’t vaguely representative of cultural zealots too often taking charge today in America.

Already, less celebrated scientists like William Jungers of Stoney Brook are taking aim at this popular unveiling of what might not be quite as big as the media would like.

“This is a fascinating skeleton, but based on what they present, the evidence for bipedalism is limited at best,” said William Jungers, an anatomist at Stony Brook University in New York State.

Without a real demonstration of bipedalism, Ardi could not be considered a hominid at all. If she isn’t a hominid, she wouldn’t rank the first 14 minutes on World News Tonight with Charles Gibson.

Stay tuned.

Art of Living?

Art of Living?

The travel industry used to be an industry of rampant scams, but it has improved. I’ve now found a different industry that’s worse than travel ever was: cable TV.

This week Ron Posner, assistant producer for the Cable TV show Art of Living set up an appointment to speak with me about filming EWT safaris. Skeptically, I made the appointment.

Ron seemed nice enough, but I didn’t want to spend a lot of time on a “scam.”

“How much is this going to cost me?” I asked before the conversation began. The reply was laughter, and Ron immediately started reminding me of all the spots of this show that airs on CNN, especially over CNN’s airport channel.

So we spoke. We spoke for some time about industry trends, about EWT. Ron seemed particularly interested in the baby boomers, as he said, that was the target audience for Art of Living.

As the hour-long conversation was winding to an end, and Ron was beginning to schedule a film crew coming to see us, he mentioned the “collaborative” effort that Art of Living and EWT would be engaged in.

He called it a “scheduling fee.”

Another scam. I don’t mind talking about EWT and travel, and replied by telling him so. But it makes me wonder if every single spot we see on cable is not really news or features, but paid for by the beneficiary of that publicity.

Years ago, the travel industry was just as bad. Do you remember those free cruises, and free weeks in Orlando, which required 80% of your time visiting time-shares? Or the roundtrip to Budapest followed by an inflated ground package? The most striking were the so-called “taxes” that airlines place on their ticket prices. Usually half of the amount wasn’t really a government tax, but a fuel surcharge determined solely and completely by that airline. Some of that still exists, but for the most part these scams are over or disappearing.

So beware, if you aren’t already, your so-called feature spot on cable TV. That waffle pan might not really be the best one!