Little Naughties

Little Naughties

SECvsHitachiAmerica slaps the wrist of a Japanese company that bribed South African authorities to beat an American competitor. Ouch did that hurt! At all?

It’s now up to a judge in New York to decide if it hurt.

Yesterday, the Obama Administration’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a settlement with Hitachi, a Japanese construction company that was bidding against American companies to build coal-fired power plants in South Africa.

Hitachi agreed to pay SEC $19 million to close all further litigation against them.

SEC charged that Hitachi paid about $13 million in bribes to South African individuals and corporations linked or belonging to the ruling party, the ANC.

When the project is completed Hitachi stands to earn a billion.

So on the one hand, of course, if you’re a capitalist it makes perfect sense to drop a little kick-back of around .13%. In fact, it’s so little that you’re well hedged to pay any SEC fees that might come along.

Here’s the point: the Obama administration condones bribery.

South Africa’s ANC is embroiled in so many scandals it’s getting boring. This one has been followed closely for nearly a decade.

So in some ways it’s not news. Hitachi is breaking ground soon, it’s paid its naughty fees and the ANC has illegally benefited and likely South Africa won’t get the best deal.

That isn’t to say Hitachi doesn’t build good coal-fired power plants. I have no idea if it does. But this itty bitty reproof SEC has given them for flagrant moral and legal violations means that not only is bribery being institutionalized in South Africa, but at the courtesy of the great country of America.

So give me a break, folks. Anybody talking about how corrupt Africa is better re-read this, first.

No Lions in the Horizon

No Lions in the Horizon

watching cruise shipWhy are more Americans traveling than ever, but many fewer to Africa?

American tourism to Africa continues to decline (third year in a row), while overall vacation travel oversees is booming: up 5% over last year, which was up 13% over the year before! That’s amazing.

Worldwide tourism is much weaker than America’s but still growing slightly: Most of this is travel to Asia and America. Worldwide tourism to Africa’s on a tailspin.

North American travel to Mexico is off the charts. Europe is up 7%. Even the Middle East is up 6% (which has to be explained given the extraordinary crises, there. Ethiad, Emirates and Qatar airlines are massively growing and are exceptionally good. Even for American travelers going, say, to Russia, there is now a greater likelihood that they will be traveling through the Middle East and counted as visitors there.)

African tourism has always been based on European business, and that’s nearly dried up because of Europe’s mess politically and economically. The last decade’s surge of Asian visitors to Africa, mostly from China, is slowing because China’s economy is slowing.

South Africa has always commanded the largest number of tourists into sub-Saharan Africa, but this year tourism shrunk 23% from Europe and 27% from North America, despite the Rand being at historical lows.

Statistics for East Africa are always hard to get and not available until the end of the year, but the indications are that Kenya is holding its own while its neighbors are all decreasing.

“Indications” include the habit of governments like Tanzania to announce aggressive tourism initiatives when the numbers become dreadful. The numbers must be dreadful:

Last week the Tanzanian government announced plans to build an “online portal” for tourists, which like past initiatives will probably never be funded and is a terrible idea anyway.

The mystery of why American travel has declined 13% this year to Africa while overall American travel is increasing so much is revealed when we examine where other American travel is also declining.

American travel to Central America is flat and to South America is down 12%, only a percent less than Africa.

Travel to much of South America and Africa has always been classified, somewhat wrongly, as “adventure travel.” There is, in fact, more outdoorsy travel within the U.S. than for U.S. travelers abroad. What “adventure travel” really means is “more risky” travel.

Add to this cost. The cost of adventure travel has increased much faster than the cost for conventional vacations. There are all sorts of reasons for this, and none of them is easily reversed.

We’re stuck for the time being with a very expensive safari versus a very economical cruise on the Rhine.

The older American I believe is the one boosting current travel statistics as retirees and soon-to-be-retirees recover their pensions and savings. They have always represented the penny pinching, cautious part of the American traveler market.

American travel companies to Africa are mostly, too, in a tailspin … except for OAT, a frequent advertiser on public radio whose audience is preponderantly older.

That reveals all: The OAT itineraries to Africa are cheap. They are also incredibly scaled down. Shorter than their competitors’ trips, in several cases in East Africa they offer hardly a fifth as much game viewing (the expensive part of a safari).

But they offer some game viewing and they are … affordable: Perfect for retirees just regaining their financial footing.

Younger Americans are still finding their footing. Provided we don’t elect a Republican who starts another war, I think they will start effecting travel in the next five years. Then, “adventure travel” and cost will have less of a negative impact.

Until then, buckle your seat belts. Viking River Cruises will sail into more and more horizons and there ain’t any lions in those horizons.

The Rise of The Have-Nots

The Rise of The Have-Nots

MaliErruptsThe deteriorating situation in Mali this week made me realize the crises throughout the world aren’t clashes of ideologies or religions. It’s so simple: the Have Nots are rising.

Mali, you might remember, was the final joint success story of the Obama/Hollande alliance to defeat terrorism in Africa.

Since the Kenyan invasion of Somali on October 16, 2011, I have chronicled in my blogs the slow but methodical Obama/Hollande alliance that pushed the Afghani/Iraqi bad guys to Yemen, to Somalia, through East Africa and to Central Africa, thence finally to Mali.

Where, I wrongly presumed, they were finally clobbered to death by the French foreign legion in January, 2013.

I should have read more carefully my guest blogger, Conor Godfrey, who so passionately described the shock of a Mali suicide bomber which followed in February, 2013.

I mostly ignored that piece by Conor, who is now with the State Department and then as now has one of the finest analytical minds about Africa. That was a mistake. I jumped the gun. Mali was not pacified.

The insurgents that I believed were swept up into a single pile and ultimately defeated by the French Foreign legion that scattered the few remaining fugitives to doom in the Sahara, is now threatening central Mali.

Conor’s piece in 2013 expressed the surprised horror that a suicide bombing had taken place in Mali.

If you asked a random American if there were any suicide bombings here, what percentage do you think would say “None?”

To date this year alone, there have been 285 mass shootings in America, and while I have not had the time to go through them one by one to determine how many ended with the shooter killing himself, I know it was more than several.

That is simply a more modern consumer society’s suicide bomber. It’s easier in America to get a gun than make a bomb.

America is not yet threatening to implode like Mali, even with today’s announced resignation by John Boehner. But the acts are identical, across radically different cultures and historical time zones.

Whether Charlie Hebdo or Boston or Chechnya or a Finish island, people are blowing themselves up in order to kill others.

Conor knows what suicide bombing doesn’t mean:

“Maybe somewhere where life comes a little cheaper, and craziness prevails. This is nonsense…”

He suggests that it might be “blowback from our global war on terror.”

But folks, there has to be a common thread among all these seemingly disparate places and peoples, something that as horrible as it sounds, connects the bomber in Mali with the bomber in Colorado.

In ancient history legions of soldiers knew they were headed into sacrificial battles. But not really until the age of kamikazes did “suicide war” become an individual act.

There has always been desperate dissatisfaction with life by individuals, but the kamikaze, the suicide bomber seems fundamentally screwed up, totally irrational.

Unless you really embrace the concept of hopelessness. Everything is then lost. There is no more morality. Vengeance is the only possible success.

People become hopeless for a lot of different reasons. Many are obvious, like hunger. But many are more complicated, like losing a job. (US 2015 Mass Shooter #246, Vester Flanagan.) But certainly this isn’t just a feature of our modern age. So what is?

Guns and bombs. Never before has such powerful destruction been so easily obtained by an individual.

Hopelessness. There really seems today to be an unusual amount of this worldwide.

Anger. Today we worship and encourage anger like never before.

Hopelessness curls the finger around the trigger. Anger pulls it.

All three are needed for the tragedy. We gotta work on them all, and quick.

Papal Productivity

Papal Productivity

popewithblackcardinalsPersons who consider themselves religious are declining in the world and Africa. But did you know that for the first time there are now more Catholics in East Africa than Protestants. Why do you think?

Catholics now make up approximately 18.0% of East Africa’s 194 million people, while Protestants have declined to 16.4%. This is the first survey ever where East African Protestants numbered fewer than Catholics.

Otherwise, there isn’t much good news for Christianity in Africa. Christianity continent-wide is declining significantly relative to Islam.

(The raw numbers of Catholics, Protestants and of course Muslims is all on the increase, and that’s usually what you hear from them. But relative to an even faster growing overall population, only Muslims are increasing.)

I think Pope Francis helps us understand why Catholics are now ‘outpercentaging’ Protestants: He’s an Hispanic of Italian immigrants, progressive politically, and socially and scientifically aware; and this mirrors many young Africans.

A increasingly large portion of Africans are not born where there parents and grandparents were. The massive dislocations of African populations are due mostly to a huge migration into urban areas from rural ones, although a small yet significant portion is a growing number of political refugees.

Young Africans are politically progressive, as demonstrated by the growingly powerful youth political movements in places like Kenya and South Africa, and they likely understand and embrace climate change, evolution, and even such arcane science as stem cell research.

This positions them as a society much like Pope Francis. Of course this begs the larger question, why? As a nonreligious person, I feel confident in suggesting an objective answer:
catholicsinafrica
Redistribution of wealth, stability, and a sense of pride (which I concede is not generally considered religious) I think are the three driving factors. Catholics do much better than Protestants with these, and Muslims do much better than Christians.

I’m not suggesting these are the banner ideals for a perfect society. Indeed, freedom vies constantly with stability in Africa, and freedom does not seem to be a religious virtue but it is definitely one of mine. But in societies so terribly ravaged by war and strife for so long, stability often trumps freedom.

The modern Christian religions of Africa were determined in the mid 19th Century when European leaders eked out the continent not just for political control, but also religious control.

At that time Protestants got the biggest piece of the pie, particularly in East Africa where august men like David Livingstone gained not just the respect of the world, but of the local populations.

When independence came to Africa, many cities, towns and street names were changed back to African names from Leopoldville, Elizabeth Lane, Kaiserstrasse. But not changed were streets and towns named “Livingstone.”

Things began to shift shortly after independence swept the continent in the 1960s.

Protestantism is distinctly conservative relative to Catholicism, and even without any tenants associated to the meaning of “independence,” European Protestants warned against awarding independence to the colonies while European Catholics welcomed it.

That rather set the stage, and the Cold War accelerated protestants’ decline even more. The end of the Cold War also was another significant point, when western nations in a moment withdrew their support for much of Africa. Alas, Muslims stepped in and have never stepped out.

From my point of view, Catholic and Muslim charity does more good than protestant charity. This is simply because Catholic and Muslim charity is centrally organized while most protestant charity is composed of a multitude of small, independent projects from independent church communities abroad.

As readers of this blog know, I find it hard to embrace most charity in Africa, believing very strongly that only government-to-government assistance will ever succeed.

And that’s also why Muslim and Catholic charities are better viewed in Africa than protestant ones. Nearly two-thirds of the funds distributed by Catholic charities come from government grants. Protestant charities are reluctant, often adamantly opposed to government funding.

Government funding is much larger and comes with many more strings attached than individual church donations, and as a result, is coordinated throughout the entire spectrum of foreign aid. That makes Catholic charity far more efficacious than Protestant.

Even countries that are exceptionally protestant, like South Africa, have followed the current pope’s progressive actions with admiration. There is no single protestant leader in the world, nor really any single Muslim leader.

Personally I remain worried and skeptical of organized religion. But like many Africans, I follow Pope Francis with enormous admiration.

Undeniably Ugandan

Undeniably Ugandan

bestbrideshereMarriage is now … ‘nonrefundable’ in Uganda. This brings a whole new perspective to trophy wives.

The irony here is that Ugandan womens’ rights groups celebrated this Ugandan Supreme Court Decision, once again proving that Uganda is a mirror universe of the modern day.

Mifumi is a much needed Ugandan NGO that works principally against domestic violence. SALVE international reports that 68% of Ugandan women 15-49 years old suffer serious domestic violence.

This is roughly twice the continent’s average.

The litigation Mifumi brought to the Ugandan Supreme Court was actually to make bride price illegal, essentially ending it. Instead the Supreme Court made the practice nonrefundable. In Uganda and other similar socially transitional societies, if the woman divorces her husband the bride price is refunded.

It’s hard for me to understand how Mifumi thinks this ruling is a victory, as it is anything but. It further institutionalizes a primitive custom in modern garb.

Paying the women’s parents a certain sum in order to marry their daughter is rooted in the folkways of almost all traditional peoples. But the foundation of these folkways is the institutionalized inferiority of women to men. Bride price is simply a component of this larger perception.

Now the court is telling its citizens to look twice before acting, because the act is so important it can’t be undone.

In more modern cultures like ours the man proposing, the man giving the ring, the man standing by the religious leader waiting for his bride to be presented to him … all are vestiges of these early discriminations against women, and Uganda has begun canonizing them in modern terms.

Uganda is one of the saddest stories in Africa, a once vibrant and intelligent nation that was in large part shepherded into a land of super conservatism by American republican leaders.

Click here to begin reading that lengthy story which among other bad outcomes led to the “Kill the Gay” laws that have made the country so infamous.

But like Donald Trump playing to his constituencies’ fears and immoralities, the Ugandan president has navigated his stay in power by playing to the primitive side of his countrymen.

The Ugandan Supreme Court, like all institutions in the country, is a sham controlled by the president. Its August decision on bride price reflects Museveni’s beliefs exactly.

Museveni’s victory is greater than he expected. Now even the primary womens advocacy NGO is in his camp.

Burkina Volte or Faso?

Burkina Volte or Faso?

newarabspringThe crisis in little understood Burkina Faso is not over because apparently the Arab Spring that exploded in early 2011 is not over.

No one knows this better than the dictatorial leaders remaining in Africa who control the African Union (AU) which this time was instrumental in demanding that the Burkina coup leaders give up and go home.

Let me explain.

About a year ago, the old Burkina dictator of 27 years, Blaise Compaoré, was forced to flee the country by nothing more than spontaneous street demonstrations.

No one much noticed because Burkina Faso, the old Upper Volta, is one of the world’s poorest and smallest countries, a land-locked withering land that lacks any natural resources.

Compaoré didn’t blink an eye when trouble started in Africa in 2011. He didn’t blink an eye when virtually all the countries to his southwest exploded into the horrible Blood Diamond wars of the nineties.

He didn’t blink an eye the last two years when Mali devolved into chaos or when France arrived to put it back together.

Compaoré never had much to do or mismanage. His existence quite frankly was based almost entirely on his agreements (with virtually anyone who asked) to use his centrally land-locked country as a military base.

These included the good guys and the bad guys in the Blood Diamond Wars, the U.S. (for Obama’s increased militarization of Africa), France (for fighting Mali extremists) and Nigeria (for fighting Boko Haram).

So most people were yawning when about a year ago he routinely announced that he would once again stand for President for his sixth five-year term.

Out of the blue street demonstrations organized in Facebook exploded. That’s fascinating.

Did the Arab Spring never die?

A rather self-promoting piece in the Washington Post by a Vassar professor so contends.

Unfortunately the professor spent more time promoting his forthcoming book than he did explaining his proposition, so let me try.

The Arab Spring was not a singular phenomenon in Egypt sparked as Republicans may believe by Obama’s cheer leading. Nor was it confined to the most repressive of regimes and the most liberal, denying entry by any but the most extreme.

It was a cyclical phenomenon more or less linked to generational awakening of having been oppressed.

Maybe, but if it is a cycle — like anything today — it’s massively amplified by social media, the information revolution.

It’s hard, in fact, to point to any previous cycle in Burkina Faso’s history, since following a turbulent era immediately after Independence it was a single entity – Compaoré’s Company, if you will – that held control.

But the individual power provided by Facebook to organize similar sentiment is uncontained by geopolitical borders.

First there’s dissatisfaction, and the Vassar Professor may be right in that being a generational cycle. Then there’s dismay at being unable to remedy the dissatisfaction, after which there has historically in Africa been resignation and an endless stream of strongmen.

No longer. And what’s particularly fascinating about Burkina Faso’s quick devolution into revolution was its equally quick restoration out of revolution.

Hardly a day after military associated with Compaoré successfully staged the coup, they were besieged by virtually every other African leader and institution, good guys and bad guys, to reverse and get out.

The AU was most vociferous, and the AU is controlled by some of history’s most notorious strongmen. Why did they insist on a return to “democracy?”

Because they fear what is happening in Burkina will happen to them.

And, you know what? I think they’re right.

Automatic Settings

Automatic Settings

Lion KillDrones and robots are revolutionizing wildlife photography. But will the Serengeti authorities allow BeetleCam?

Drone photography in Tanzania’s national parks has been going on for at least five years, but until now only professional shoots could afford the devices.

Now devices like BeetleCam will soon be available for purchase at prices competitive with good SLR cameras. Much less sophisticated camera/drones are also available for much less money.

More and more are showing up on safari, and this has led the Tanzanian authorities to catch up with the trend.

At the end of last year, TANAPA advised the public that in general drones and robot cameras were prohibited in the national parks.

But that didn’t stop the public, and the message did not get out well. Moreover, TANAPA has given many professional filmmakers the right to use drones.

One of the first organizations to use them for photography was NatGeo as referenced in the first link above.

And now NatGeo is finding itself increasingly on the defensive. Recent articles in the magazine are promoting the importance of using drones in conservation.

But the wildlife community is quite divided on the value of using drones.

Last month PBS reported a study in Current Biology indicating that drones were stressing out bears.

NatGeo has become increasingly self-serving over the last decade, but the legitimate argument is rising to the top of most wildlife organization agendas.

As it does the possibility of using drones for photography – even professional photography – diminishes.

I’ve often felt that too many visitors to Africa’s wilderness spend too much time with their photography.

The obsession that has followed many tourists for my entire career ends up reducing the fullness of their memories, from my point of view. If you’ve got to worry about the settings and absolutely correct click moment, you’ll more than likely miss the grand picture of everything happening around that single image.

I chuckle when remembering the old days of the first public video cameras, those huge rectangular boxes that everyone brought on safari:

We were following three cheetah on a hunt in the Mara. I warned everyone that when they sprinted, it was ridiculously short and fast.

But a good number of my clients kept their faces plastered to their video eyepiece, and sure enough, when the hunt and takedown occurred, they were still filming – and seeing – an empty veld!

Rainy Days Are Here Again!

Rainy Days Are Here Again!

tsavoeasteleEl-Nino’s coming! This means I’m carefully reviewing all the safari itineraries for next year.

We’ve known that El-Nino was on its way, but the extent of it is only now being understood better. For safari guides like me, it’s going to be a challenge.

El-Nino effects different places differently. In my home in the Midwest of the U.S., temperatures will be mild and there will be lots less snow than normal.
RainySeason15-16
On the California coasts and the south of the country, heavy rains … some which have already begun.

And that’s the prediction for East Africa where most of my safaris occur. The chart to the right was taken yesterday from the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA.

It shows the “precipitation anomaly” for three-month periods, starting from the top: Sep-Nov; Dec-Feb; and Feb-Apr. The bluer the shading, the greater the added precipitation expected.

Heavy rain is generally good for the animals. It just causes us guides some transport difficulties.

I realize, now, for example, that my penchant for traveling into the backside of Lake Manyara National Park is likely going to be impossible, as there are two river washes likely to be too high.

It means that multiple vehicle safaris only will be allowed into off-road areas of the NCAA, where black cotton soil, some quicksand and marsh turf, could become saturated. We space our vehicles out a bit further from one another so that multiple vehicles don’t get stuck at the same time in the same place.

On the other hand, there should be some impressively good news for the Kenyan portion of the my safaris, including Samburu, the Mara and Tsavo East.

These normally dry areas will likely get some water. In fact as shown by the picture above presumably taken in the last week, the rains have already greened up Tsavo East, a good month or two before normal.

That’s good. It will increase the survivability of animal births, pretty up the veld and reduce the horrible dust we normally have to endure in these areas.

So don’t change your plans! Just make sure that your safari operator is prepared! In fact, it’s usually been in years of unusually high rains that I’ve had the best experiences with the Great Migration!

Egypt No-Go

Egypt No-Go

Four-wheel drive cars cross the Egyptian western desert and the Bahariya Oasis, southwest of CairoLast week EWT promoted an Egyptian trip. The killing of a tour group by Egyptian security forces Sunday mandates that we now withdraw that offer.

Tourists deaths, kidnappings and violent injuries are way down in Egypt compared to the “good ole days.” A decade ago 12-15 million people annually visited Egypt and about 250 were killed or violently injured each year.

Many of these were horrible terrorist attacks but no one seemed to care or report about it.

Last year ten million people visited Egypt and less than 20 were killed, kidnapped or violently injured.

Sometimes, though, the numbers don’t speak for themselves.

The attack occurred about 220 miles southwest of Cairo in the Western Desert near an oasis called Bahariya (in some reports, shortened to “Bahyira.”) This is an adventure tourism area popular with backpacking tourists.

The Wall Street Journal reported that four tourist vehicles “clearly marked” with “tourists luggage on roof racks” had stopped for a lunch break.

The Journal further reported that there were 21 people in the convoy, including 14 Mexicans, an American, four Egyptian drivers, an Egyptian guide and a police officer along to guarantee that “The convoy was on the route agreed upon with the authorities.”

London’s Guardian newspaper also reported that the group had permits in their passports which were displayed on Facebook.

Al-Jazeera said helicopter gunships fired on the convoy.

It seems clear to me the Egyptian military made a mistake and that the government is now trying to cover for it.

ISIS and offshoot rebel groups are active in the Egyptian deserts, especially after the catastrophe in Libya and the current Cairo crackdown on Muslim extremists.

Ten years ago in the literal carnage that occurred to tourists in Egypt in its heyday, when everyone was going to Egypt carefree and seemingly unconcerned with the mass political killings of tourists that were regularly occurring, it was the bad guys against the tourists.

Now the problem is we won’t know who the bad guy is.

ISIS, for sure, and one way of avoiding them is to not go into the desert. Most tourists should know this.

But now what about the Egyptian government itself? So paranoid that it presumes any four-wheel drive vehicle is an insurgent?

The uncertainty and reactionary paranoia of the Egyptian government radically alters the prospect of tourism in the country. Remember, it’s not just the facts, it’s how people perceive the facts.

And I for one perceive Egypt at the moment like an over zealous fanatic with too much caffeine holding weapons that are far too dangerous for protecting me.

Train Wreck

Train Wreck

TrainDifferenceI step very gingerly on loose railway ties when we bird along the Mississippi River close to the horrible derailment last spring, wondering why Kenya can build a modern railway and we can’t.

The quick answer is that Kenya isn’t: China is, in Kenya. The second quick answer is because Republicans think they can get along just fine without government invested infrastructure.

Kenya’s 380-mile modern, fast standard gauge railway project is “running ahead of schedule.” When fully operating in 2017 it will cut the travel time between the coastal city of Mombasa and megalopolis of Nairobi down to 4 hours.

China is paying for 90% of the $3.8 billion dollar cost with the Kenyan government paying the remainder and then of course paying for the operating costs.

Railways worldwide are usually not profitable … as in the United States. That’s because they don’t have as many derailments.

Railways are understood in the sane, modern world to be a lost leader, a necessary infrastructure that builds commerce and ultimately increases tax revenues enough to justify them while providing the population with a modern service.

Like … a sidewalk.

It’s generally an idea Republicans don’t get: providing their constituencies with infrastructure. They prefer to believe the private sector will know when to build something.

“America’s sparse rail network is so far behind [the] standards in [European] countries,” the Guardian newspaper reported after our spate of spring crashes.

A private sector that prefers to clean up toxic leaking bonfires because it’s less expensive than building something that won’t crash is how America does it, today.

Kenya’s new railway replaces the decrepit “Iron Snake” that was built more than 100 years ago and is essentially useless, constantly breaking down and often taking 19 hours to travel from Mombasa to Nairobi.

The railway was one of the first undertakings of the British colonial regime, recognizing that transportation of goods and people was essential to development. The colonial power pursued similar projects in its Indian and Asian colonies.

Pity we overthrew them too early.

China has significantly withdrawn its investment in Africa since its slowdown this year, but the project was begun early last year and it appears the Chinese will see it through.

Chinese attempts to “cut corners” with a standard Chinese-designed culvert were thwarted in March by Kenyan authorities who insisted on sticking to the original British design. Work was actually stopped for several weeks until the Chinese agreed to continue with the original design.

Remarkably the railway will cut right through Nairobi National Park and parts of the Tsavo national parks, but there has been little opposition.

“We can’t say to the Nairobi resident: ‘You have to sit in a traffic jam for the rest of your life’,” the famous conservationist and anthropologist Richard Leakey told reporters.

China isn’t just playing nice guy. China had lots of cash it needed to invest a few years ago. It knows that Africa often produces as great a return on investment as in its own society. And Africa has … oil and other natural resources.

But this mercantile motivation is what capitalism is all about, right? Then how come our own government won’t invest in its own people? Because the private sector is so greedy it holds all the cards?

Yeah, that’s it.

Frontrunning Change

Frontrunning Change

frontrunningchange“Real Change” possible in Tanzania’s October elections makes me wonder if there’s not a democratic wave of discontent sweeping over the whole darn world.

Violence can be a certain byproduct. In the U.S. it’s increasing gun violence, school shootings, highway sniping. In Egypt … and maybe Tanzania … it’s election turmoil.

Venezuela, Britain’s Labor Party (tomorrow), Guatemala, Ivory Coast, Turkey, even the Ukraine … the list goes on for some length: these are all places like the U.S. and Tanzania where very radical political change is possible this year.

Not necessarily likely, but possible in a way no one would have predicted a year ago. I for one think this round will be flat, but I think it heralds truly radical change the next time around: There are Elizabeth Warrens standing by in every corner of the world.

Tanzania is an excellent example of this “New Era” of change.

The country’s election is scheduled for October 24. Like most sane countries in the world, the campaign really only began this month. The candidates were picked in July, and they were about as surprising as Donald Trump running as a Republican and Bernie Sanders as a Democrat.

Tanzania’s political history for the last quarter to half century is very similar to the history of countries like the U.S. I hear laughter in the halls of academia, but hear me out.

I know Tanzania was a strictly socialist, even one-party system for the last era, hardly a political map of the U.S. But in the end these two radically different political systems really made very little difference to the millions of people they governed.

Since the end of the Cold War, there has been very little social or political change … worldwide. In fact in the U.S. we see racism and civil rights slipping backwards. The “voice” of the majority has grown increasingly weak.

The status quo held fast throughout this entire period: People in power – sometimes 30 or 40 years ago – stayed in power, or their children or the spouses took their places.

Almost all these leaders matriculated through the business world. There were few educators, scientists, laborers or even lawyers who ever held the reigns of power.

Capitalism was the bulwark of all policy. So it really didn’t matter if you were a one-party if autocratic politic like Tanzania, or a strict communist state like China, or a presumed open democracy like the U.S.: what mattered was profits and (financial) growth.

The Great Recession tolled the end to this mentality. It’s no wonder again that the U.S. was in the vanguard of change. But Barack Obama’s legacy turned out not to be ‘Real Change,’ as much as his supporters shouted it during his election.

The Democratic Party – which could have brought about Real Change – didn’t. Tanzania is going through that pivotal moment right now.

The ruling party, the CCM, has failed to meet the youthful aspirations of its electorate, and in an absolutely amazing coalition of ridiculously diverse opposition groups, UKAWA has mounted a real challenge for the first time in the country’s history.

But as with Obama’s election in the States, or Mursi’s in Egypt, or Erdoğan’s defeat in Turkey, I don’t think it will happen this time around.

For one thing, the UKAWA candidate leading the charge had expected to be the candidate of the ruling party he’s now contesting!

Think Donald Trump.

What we have is a moment in human political history where the pot is just starting to bubble.

Tanzanians, in fact, are asking their compatriots to heed the American rule that “one’s hand is expected to be extended to the winner in a congratulatory handshake after the polls results have been announced.”

The fear as in so many fragile societies is that defeat of ‘Real Change’ returns a status quo that is simply too unbearable. The bubbles in the pot boil and violence occurs all at once.

I’m less certain about Tanzania and the rest of the world than in the U.S., but I think this round of elections worldwide are bubbles in the pot, not the boiling over that brings real change.

But beware: A watched pot never boils. One ignored, explodes.

Nearly Naledi

Nearly Naledi

nalediToday’s flowery announcement of Homo naledi probably exaggerates a truly outstanding discovery, thereby diminishing its import. Alas, anthropologists at it, again!

Homo naledi is undoubtedly a new species of early man, and that’s exciting enough, isn’t it? We’re pushing around 20 species, now, of early men and I’ve predicted for some time that number will probably never stop increasing, at least until we start hunting for fossils on Titan.

We know that our epoch of planet earth is one of quickly diminishing species, and that in the ages of rapidly increasingly species, there were dozens of apes, maybe hundreds of early primates. Why shouldn’t there be lots of types of early men?

The story of Homo naledi is exciting for two reasons in particular:

First, it’s a collection of fossils representing at least 15 individuals. We’ve never discovered such a single collection of early men species before.

Second, the creature has appendages – arms, legs and especially hands – that are much more similar to our own than any other early creatures found with a similarly small brain size.

There are other reasons the discovery is exciting: it was in the Sterkfontein area of South Africa, which post-apartheid has received the attention it’s deserved for decades and is year to year showing its exceptional worth.

The leader of the expedition is Lee Berger, an American resident in South Africa for most of his career. Another lead member of the team is one of my personal anthropological heroes (for his normally balanced approach to the science that he’s somewhat compromised in this case) John Hawks of the University of Wisconsin.

Unlike discoveries made by some of the find’s most vocal critics (Tim White of Ardi, in particular) the analysis of Homo naledi has been open and transparent since its find nearly two years ago.

In other words, and unlike Ardi’s find and numerous others, what was known was published remarkably soon after it was discovered. Today’s announcement is the summary of all that analysis, and – what I consider somewhat tentative – the age of the discovery.

Today Berger claimed that the cave site was 2-2.5 million years old.

If that also holds true of the fossils themselves, it’s astounding. It would mean the hominid line moves even further into the past, overlapping more and more species of men-like creatures that were not hominin, like the australopithecine.

It’s not astounding conceptually, because it’s what many scientists and I’ve believed all along, but it would be evidentially astounding.

And this is where two fights really begin. Disregard White’s pooh-poohing of the typing of the species, because that old battle of what species is what is really becoming an old man’s game. The real fight is over the age of the fossils.

Most early fossils are pretty easily dated. The unique structure and composition of this cave, however, makes easy dating impossible.

If the fossils are as old as the cave itself, it predates early human and that’s very exciting. The finders are also suggesting something else: burial, something also presumed to be utterly human.

It’s nearly impossible for us laymen to speculate on the actual age of the fossils, because that’s deep and intricate science.

But we can speculate upon the extent to which the situation seems to be a burial.

The creatures had very small brains and no other creatures anywhere near that brain size have been found in situations that suggest burial.

If burial is a human characteristic, and if this was a burial situation, does that mean that this was a more direct ancestor than any found this primitive before?

I don’t think so. The 15 individuals were mostly young people, many very young. Only one old individual is among the discovery.

Certainly in primitive situations more young die than old, perhaps many more young, so that would be consistent with the find. But 14:1?

Berger insists there is nothing evidential to suggest predation or warfare, because there aren’t fossilized wounds. But what about suffocation or a sudden methane blow?

So by process of elimination that didn’t consider my qualifications above, the current scientists – including my usually reluctant Hawks – have decided this was an early human burial site.

I don’t think so. I’m still thinking about why I don’t think so, but it strikes me as the exaggeration of an otherwise beautiful paleontological discovery, diverting interest and ergo science from deeper analysis of what we know, to cosmological speculation of what we’ll never know.

Ah, anthropology today.

Who Loves Bernie?

Who Loves Bernie?

Sanders and the WorldAn American/South African has turned Bernie Sanders on his head, revealing a gaping contradiction in the ethos of this growingly popular progressive.

I like Bernie. I like him more than Hillary and probably more than Joe and my ideal presidential contest is Trump vs Sanders.

But an American turned at least resident South African has stayed my Sanders’ enthusiasm as nothing else I’ve read.

J. Brooks Spector was an American diplomat some years ago when he decided to leave America and take up residence in South Africa. He set up some businesses in the country, taught at a major university, ran a theater and is seen on South African TV interpreting the world from a former American’s eyes.

Commenting today on the drowning of the Syrian refugee child Alyan Kurdi, he writes:

“…nobody can point to any acts by an outside power that have set off these recent waves of migration, other than the US being an economy that is growing in contrast to so many others…”

Ah-hah! I thought, and it had nothing to do with migrants and everything to do with Bernie.

For decades I’ve felt oppressed by my own beliefs, which often raise slight smiles and dismissive stares from my clients who are always much wealthier than I am. My safaris get wonderful reviews but if I lose a client it’s often, as one wrote me, “when you talk politics. Safari guiding has nothing to do with politics.”

As ridiculously incorrect as that remark is it typifies the state of American Progressivism for the last 40 years.

Until Bernie Sanders.

There really are people out there – lots of people like me – fed up with life’s stagnations. The status quo has a remarkable ability to squelch dissent. But you can put up with something being downright unfair for just so long.

It would be one thing if America weren’t growing, but as Spector points out, America versus the rest of the world is growing quite well. But … as Bernie so eloquently explains: not for the 98% and I and likely most of you reading this are in the 98%.

Moreover, we more stable of the 98% are very sensitive to those who are sinking … like some of our kids or friends’ kids, or important parts of our communities that we’ve been so deeply involved with for years.

Bernie wants to change that. He wants to level the playing field, right? He wants to spread out the largess, taking some of the unfair success of the few and reapportioning it to the many.

I like that. After all it is the many which provide the few with their growth at the expense of not growing themselves.

Although Spector was referring to migration, what if we expand his notion to all the world’s problems?

Then immediately we have some serious problems with Bernie’s views on trade: If farm subsidies should be reduced in the U.S., shouldn’t tariffs worldwide be reduced, or dare I say it, Free Trade? His initially welcome views on foreign intervention – “Don’t!” – become questionable: if the federal government must audit individual police departments, what about Assad?

Or let’s talk about AID. If we subsidize rebuilding I-90, what about the Suez Canal or the great new Ethiopian dam?

And so it goes. If Bernie’s hyper focus on putting our own house in order results in a fairer, bigger house for all here at home, will it be at the expense of the rest of the world growing less?

“At present, however, the prevailing international order still means that individual nations will decide what is best for them to do… within the realm of their [own] national politics. Don’t expect the impact of [Alyun Kurdi’s] death to trump individual conceptions of national interest.”

Or, for that matter, the implosion of Burundi or the rape of capitalism by Chinese moguls.

It is a pernicious contradiction increasingly evident the smaller you conceive your world.

Labor Day

Labor Day

Today is “Labor Day” in the United States. America’s May Day.

Foreigners are understandably surprised to learn that our very expensive political campaigns for elections in November, 2016, have already begun. So today politicians are joining the tens of thousands of “Labor Day” parades organized by towns big and small across the country.

I live in far northwestern Illinois right on the border with Iowa, the state that holds the “first primary” for party elections next March, and all the important politicians are marching in parades there today.

But this year we normal folks are really fed up with the politicians. In one large Iowa city near where I live the city organizers have told the politicians that they have to march at the end of the parade line!

Politicians do not like to be at the end of anything.

Labor Day marks the end of summer when friends and family gather for the last summer barbecue. It vies with Christmas and New Years Day to be the least worked day in the U.S.

Vacations end, schools reopen, the fall sports season begins (especially American football), the culture season with operas and symphonies begin in the great cities, and everyone piles back to work.

Many species of birds are flying through and many of our own species are beginning to fly south. The wild turkey are eating madly to beef up for winter. Deer fawn are grown and losing their spots. Our pet dogs are shedding handfuls of hair all over the place.

Where I live in the Driftless Area near the Mississippi River in the Upper Midwest, the great green forests are beginning to change color. Soon there will be piles of yellow and red leaves where now there are only patches. The sumac are a deep red, elm turn yellow, maple become blood red and oak a warm, deep orange.

Where I live this many sportsmen are getting ready for the opening of the hunting seasons. Shots can be heard along the great Mississippi River as the duck season opens first as tens of thousands of the migrating ducks head south.

Days shorten. Right now we have 13 hours of sunlight, but that’s shrinking by nearly 3 minutes a day until December 21 when we’ll have less than 9 hours.

Before we know it the forests will have shed all their leaves and the crackly ground beneath them will be covered in snow.

If ever a holiday marked a turning of the seasons, it’s Labor Day.

Heroes To Africa

Heroes To Africa

Two Heroes to AfricaA huge sigh of relief could be heard coming from Africa when the Iran Deal was secured this week. It was hard for them to understand why Americans might not have accepted it.

It was hard for me to find any African opposition whatever to the deal, as hard as I tried surveying every news outlet and blogpost I could find in Africa. I was particularly surprised this was the case in Nigeria.

Nigeria’s potential as Africa’s financial powerhouse rests with its enormous reserves of oil, and the Nigerian government announced recently that it expects a quarter of its government revenues could be lost if the Iran deal goes through:

“US-Iran deal: Nigeria could lose N333bn by year end,” Nigeria’s major business newspaper reported.

This is because Nigeria and Iran produce the same quality of crude. Before the Iran sanctions were imposed a number of years ago the two were each other’s main competitor.

Reduced government revenues won’t just occur because Iran will be able to effectively compete again with Nigeria, African analysts warn, but also because there will be “a further drop in crude oil prices” as even more oil is made available to an already saturated market.

So despite this startling understanding, Nigerian public opinion is squarely behind the deal.

“The Republicans dominate the military industrial complex of America and they love and appreciate war more than they treasure and seek peace,” writes an important Nigerian commentator.

This is the sentiment throughout the continent, although outside Nigeria, commentary is a bit more biting:

“In a sense,” writes one of Nairobi’s most prominent columnists, “Obama’s real contest is not with Congress. It is with a small but powerful Middle-Eastern state that holds extraordinary – even abnormal – power over … Congress.

“One can write a whole book on why exactly Israel has this unique capacity to make America dance to her every tune.

“Empires begin to decline when they lose touch with reality. Diplomacy has lost meaning to the Republicans. It’s either their way, or the gun.”

“The Iran nuclear deal would curtail its nuclear programme. The only people who can hate that are the kind who just love war,” according to one of South Africa’s most read dailies.

“Republicans … seem downright furious diplomacy prevailed over the threat of more missiles.

“For Republicans, the Iran nuclear negotiations have never been about getting ‘a good deal’ for the US. They’ve simply wanted to preserve their ability to kill people … whenever they want.”

These are tough words from a normally moderate and respected newspaper, and it reflects the utter frustration that otherwise thoughtful and intelligent Africans felt when confronted with the possibility that Republicans might have scuttled the deal.

Well anyway, frustrations aside at last, the deal seems done. Perhaps its demonstrable success over the next few years will be one of the final nails in the coffin of America’s Republican Party, an old GOP movement that may truly have seen its day.