Is it Safe to Travel Now?

Is it Safe to Travel Now?

Is it safe to travel to Africa, now? Here’s the answer, and it’s not what you really wanted to ask.

I’m on my way to Africa, and just before I left I got besieged by emails and phone calls asking, “Is it safe for us to go to Africa, now?”

It’s an inadequate question, because it’s not what any of those asking really meant. Because the answer to that is a straight-forward “YES”. What people really mean is, “With all the planning and money I’ve spent on this, and with the great importance of getting home as planned but equally of enjoying this as a respite from my daily life, is the trip going to be disrupted?”

Or, more simply, “Is it wise to travel to Africa, now?”

That’s the real question, a very important one, and one that I’ll try to answer below with hints as to how you can insure you’re trip is wise, now and in the future. But first, bear with me as we get rid of the superfluous question, “Is it safe?”

Eight Americans were killed and 21 injured in Egypt in the most recent incident there to tourists: a bus crash near Aswan in December.

There were likely more than a half million tourists in Egypt during the recent disturbances, during the highest tourist period of the year. There was not one visiting tourist reported injured much less killed.

Those are the facts. It’s important not just to remember them, not just to discard them as obvious, but to embrace them so that you can really get to the important question you’re asking.

Sp bear with me a little bit more:

Every year from 1992 through 2007 tourists were attacked and killed in Egypt, a total of 252 tourists murdered plus more than 500 others seriously injured for life. The Egyptian government cracked down so heavily after 71 were killed in 1997 (including 61 gunned down while sightseeing in Luxor), deploying police at virtually every tourist crossing, that there were no tourist killings or injuries for nearly six years from 1998 through 2003.

But in 2004, 34 tourists were murdered and more than 120 injured; in 2005, 90 tourists were killed and more than 200 injured, and in 2006; 23 tourists were murdered and more than 40 seriously injured.

A total of 252 tourists were killed by militants in Egypt between 1992 and 2007, plus more than 500 seriously injured.

(I’ve found slightly different figures from different sources. The above was compiled by a tourism company from Reuters reports.)

The total deaths represent 30 separate incidents. Every one got worldwide attention. Every one was front page news and headlined nightly news casts in America. In more than half of these incidents, Americans were among those dead.

And during this long period, tourism exploded. (Pun, seriously intended.)

In the 18 years from 1993 to 2010 between 70 and 90 million tourists visited Egypt. The last official numbers were for the first half of 2010, which was 6.9 million. There was a decline during the mid 1990s, but otherwise, it’s been a steady rise.

The odds of being killed as a tourist in Egypt during this latest 18-year period for which we have statistics (about a quarter of a life time) is about 1 in a quarter million.

According to about.com, the chances of an American dying are significantly greater from heart disease, a car or motorcycle crash, cancer, stroke, falling or slipping, armed robbery, as a pedestrian in an accident, drowning, even suicide, plus a thousand other causes.

And not just by a little. The least likely of the list above is a car accident. Our odds are 1 in 1020 of being killed in a car accident during our life time. That is roughly 1000 times more likely than being as a tourist in Egypt.

As an American you’re 100,000 times more likely to be killed falling in an accident than as a tourist in Egypt.

The odds of being killed in Egypt as a tourist are higher than being a tourist at the Grand Ole Opry. They are higher than being a tourist in most of Europe, but not necessarily on London’s tube and metropolitan transport system during periods of IRA bombings, or in many sections of the New York subway from random acts of violence. In 1995, there was a greater percentage of tourists killed in Florida than Egypt during a “rash of attacks” the caused tourism to plummet in Florida and provoked the state to withdraw its international advertising for tourism.

Similar statistics exist for “serious injury.”

So it’s just not even remotely possible to imagine a “NO” answer to the pure question is it safe now to travel to Africa (Egypt being the denominator).

What people really mean, “Is it wise.”

We’re in a much better position to tackle that question once we grasp the folly of concern for personal safety. That isn’t an issue.

The issue is that this is a vacation. A vacation is an earned reward, intended to relieve you of all the daily responsibilities of not being on vacation, a time to relax and have fun. And hopefully, to learn something, too. That’s what a good vacation is all about.

Can you travel to Africa – or Egypt, now – and have a good vacation? Is it wise?

That’s a much harder question. There are no statistics for this. It depends upon how much actual disruption your threshold for a decent vacation has. Did you, for example, check on the on-time performance of your air carriers to make sure that the chances of your flights being significantly delayed aren’t serious?

Did you, for example, consult the weather carefully, to know exactly how hot and humid it was going to be? Did you read enough accounts of other tourists to know if they were harassed in stores or regularly pickpocketed? Did you closely review the menus on your Nile cruise? Are you absolutely sure that your guide isn’t little more than a scam artist to bring you to his cousin’s perfume shop?

Did you check to see how difficult it would be to replace lost medications? Did you know about schistosomiasis? How contagious is elephantitis? Do the windows in your room open?

Frankly, I hope you didn’t check any of this, because all you should do is find the right tour group or company that you can trust to manifest idiosyncracies of the sort the questions above suggest.

But what tour company – what airline – for that matter, what State Department division is going to give you an honest forward appraisal of the political and social status quo?

Probably none. And that’s not because anyone is trying to fool you. It’s because if you’ve bought your travel correctly, you’ve bought it from an expert that knows a lot more about the situation than you could ever know. Increased knowledge normally mitigates presumptions of “disruption”.

A life long resident of New York not only feels safer, but really is safer, using the subway than a first-time visitor from Tokyo.

“What stuns me,” writes the heavily read travel blogger, Anouk Zijlma, on January 28 as the streets of Cairo were ablaze, the internet had been disabled and the Egyptian army was rolling tanks into Tahrir Square, “is that the US State Department has not yet issued an official travel warning or even a travel alert” for Egypt.

Ms. Zijlma went on to point out as many of us have how State Department warnings were levied wholesale on countries like Kenya which have been peaceful for years. Clearly, State Department warnings are political pawns in a complicated global game, and it’s just too bad that you as the traveler are rolled up into that.

Since most travel insurance that repays you if you cancel for “terrorism” or other types of civil disruption is triggered by State Department travel warnings, this effectively means that component of the insurance is worthless.

For me personally, there is hardly anything as valuable as travel, and the more foreign the travel is, the more valuable it is. Naturally, the more foreign it is the greater the risk exists at any time of disruption to the point of it being “unwise.”

So my standard ought not be yours. And to know your standard fairly is not something that I should be expected to automatically understand.

Ultimately, you must decide. You must be the one to undertake due diligence regarding your own components of wise traveling.

OK, so let’s say you do that. Then, what.

Well, I’d venture to say that in today’s quickly changing world, a foreign trip most anywhere is rife with the risks of being considered “unwise”, but that’s just not a reason for you not to plan it. What you should do is plan it simultaneously with an abort plan.

Insurance. And not just the ordinary insurance, since that doesn’t work.

“Cancellation for any reason” insurance.

It’s going to cost you around 10% of what you want to cover yourself for, and if you ultimately invoke the trigger you’re going to lose about a quarter of what you paid. But this wonderful insurance, offered by a number of insurance companies
let’s you decide at the last minute usually, if it’s “wise” to go.

There’s no other solution. Basically what I’m saying is that no answer from any expert will be satisfying enough if you don’t have this option available.

No one should take a “vacation” filled with so much anxiety that the wonders of the trip are lost. If you decide to commit to a foreign vacation, you’ve already been convinced that whatever you don’t at that point know isn’t worrisome enough to warrant missing the benefits of the trip. In sum, it’s worth the risk.

But you pay long before you go.

Yes, it’s perfectly safe to travel to Egypt, now. In fact, based on the statistics, it’s safer to travel during a revolution than after a period of prolonged stability! But is it wise?

Only you can answer that. And you’ll never know how you really feel without having that special insurance in your pocket.

It’s a very wise decision.

The New Weapon of Mass

The New Weapon of Mass

But it was already too late when Egypt shut down the internet.
The regime was taken by surprise.
Twevolution organized the streets before the switch was thrown.
There was a time when power came as a chariot. There was time when power came as a nuclear device. In my life time it came as stealth bombers, napalm and drones. Could it be that in the generation now following me that power comes as … the internet?

The twevolution sweeping Arabia which as I’ve written actually first matured further south is succeeding because of the masterful manipulation of information by revolutionaries who are willing to sacrifice themselves to affect significant change, which so far means booting out the dictator.

Read the fascinating blog I posted Tuesday about the software developed in Kenya that is the foundation of the information manipulation in the current twevolution.

Armaments were insignificant in the outcome of the Tunisian and Egyptian twevolution. The regimes were changed with really very little loss of lives and little destruction of property. How’s this possible?

In both cases, because the trustees of the armaments — the soldiers — who absolutely could have caused a huge loss of life and lots of destruction refused to shoot. When challenged by the unarmed masses in such numbers, they backed down.

This didn’t happen in 1956 in Hungary, or the “Czech Spring” of 1968, or 1989 in Tianamen Square.

Were the protesters then less committed? Were their ideas less compelling?

No, there just weren’t enough of them, and the growth in their support happened too slowly. The regimes in power were capable of faster reactions than the protesters. Regime weapons appeared on the scene faster than the people.

Today, that’s not the case. The crowds appear out of nowhere, it seems, although actually they are carefully organized through the internet and mobile phones. By the time they appear, they have virtually won the battle. They outperform at the starting line.

They look, from the beginning, like they are the winners.

That’s the key to mass protest. Defenseless, the only counter to hard weaponry is the sheer volume of numbers. And that’s what the IT savvy in this twevolutionary age can do.

In Libya the difference is that those fighting the people are mostly mercenaries being paid a king’s ransom. The protest has become a fight and it will likely get bloodier. But when it stops, the outcome will be the same as in Egypt and Tunisia.

You see, I believe that people are basically good. And that their inherent desires are communal and compassionate. And that when these inherent desires are repressed, they don’t just go away. They ferment and ultimately bubble out as an outburst.

As they have often in the past, but too often then crushed to smithereens. But not today, perhaps never again. The internet is the manifestation of hundreds of thousands, millions, of individual wills. Armies are made of people, and soldiers know when they’re outnumbered.

It doesn’t matter that they may outgun the defenseless. When soldiers know they are in the minority, they defer and defect.

The problem in the past has been the masses have been unable to organize effectively enough to manifest as the majority, even though they might have been.

The Nazis came to power by default, not political success. The apathy of the non-Jew Germans was cultivated by aggressive information manipulation as it existed then by the Nazis. The organizational immaturity of the Jewish populations and their sympathizers couldn’t confront the more mature organization of the Nazis. And this deficiency was reenforced by similiar inefficiencies and incapacities of greater Europe. The situation was ripe for evil to prevail.

It wouldn’t happen today, in today’s internet world, where the free and unfiltered flow of information reflects the basic good of the people faster than any organized regime can stunt it.

See why China tries to censure the internet? Even that is going to fail.

Now what comes next is as frighteningly unknown as it’s going to be exciting to behold.

Testament to the Twevolution!

Testament to the Twevolution!

Remember the joke about grandma asking JoJo how to use her remote? Well, get ready you old fogies. Here’s a cheat sheet for the software powering the current Twevolution, and take stock: it comes from Kenya!

That’s right, the Twevolution of Tahrir Square, Pearl Square and likely now even Tiananmen Square is powered by open-source (that means “free”) software from Nairobi. Called Ushahidi (“testament” in Swahili) it is the technical foundation of the revolutions organized throughout Arabia, today.

This remarkable software – and its clones and offshoots – is readjusting world order and I try to simplify it for you grandmas and grandpas below. But the important point of this story isn’t how it works. It’s how it caught world order “off guard.”

I use that cliche, off guard, to represent the dozens of other cliches the media, our government, and most world authorities used to express their surprise at what is happening in Arabia .. (and perhaps much further abroad, like China).

It was a surprise, because this readjustment of world order isn’t being accomplished by tanks and fighter bombers, or even by soldiers or police. It’s being fought and won by the deft manipulation of information. And that is something with little capital cost and virtually no military history. You don’t have to own an oil well to power a street protest.

But you probably now have to have Ushahidi.

Ushahidi was created by several Kenyan kids, spearheaded by the IT genius Ory Okollah, after the 2007 election violence. Okollah is currently the manager of policy for Google in Africa.

What that basic still open-source software does is collect information feeds, organizes and analyzes them.

So, for example, tweets on Twitter, SMS from phones, good ole emails from Google, pictures from Flickr, etc., etc. The software collects them, usually creates a map showing where they come from, and lets manipulators generate outcomes from the analyzed information.

Are protesters being fired on? Where should volunteer medics go? What part of the city do the thugs hold? Who has the hot dogs? Is there a safe place for kids? Has the weather front with rain started in the north?

The more sophisticated software allows organizers to anticipate outcomes based on “if” situations. (In computer jargon, we call it “run scenarios.”)

“If we block the north street into Tahir Square, will we be able to hold the Square?” Ushahidi and its offshoots quickly calculates from the hundreds of thousands of digital feeds that no, in fact, it’s the west street that is most vulnerable and also most able to be secured.

And beyond street strategies, these families of software ask very sophisticated questions.

How many serious sessions has Representative Pete Sessions missed after slipping sideways out of his swearing-in? How did he vote, who voted with him, did it matter, and are yellow lollipops still being sold at his 7-11?

“If we remove the mandate from the Health Care bill, will there still be enough support to make it work?”

FrontlineSMS, Foursquare, Maemo, Waze are some of the hundreds (thousands?) of open-source (remember that means “free”) software that organizes vast amounts of information sent in bit by bit from individual users.

The easiest example is Waze. Waze is used by the under-thirties who commute by car in urban areas. Iinfinitely better than the over-thirties 5-minutes-after-the-hour talk radio report created from an expensive helicopter above the highways, Waze simply collects the real-time whereabouts of its users, figures out who’s getting to work fastest and tells everyone else how to do it!

Ushahidi in its more sophisticated forms organizes all these software organizers. Into one gigantic people power unit.

The manipulators of these sets of software that organizes other organizers are the kids who started Twevolution and ultimately secured Tahrir Square and toppled Hosni Mubarak. They are the possibly poor, possibly underfed, pointedly unarmed but indisputably smart youth of today.

They are our new leaders.

Thursday, what this all means for us old folks. It’s quite astounding!

A Generation & Counting

A Generation & Counting


The reason twevolution won’t come to Uganda is because Ugandans are tired of conflict. But apathy is a heavy curse: beware another Zimbabwe.

Sunday Uganda’s official electoral commission declared Yoweri Museveni the presidential victor with more than 66% of the votes. Museveni starts his 6th 5-year term and while it’s clear there was enormous vote rigging, even a clean election would have brought him to power.

Billie Miller, spokesman for the Commonwealth countries monitoring the election had to resort to criticism of the runup to the election rather than the actual vote casting itself.

In an interim statement, Miller said that “the main concern regarding the campaign and indeed the overall character of the election was the lack of a level playing field.”

She was referring to the huge amount of money spent by Museveni – much of it from the American right, combined with what the observers felt were unfair practices by media and government officials inhibiting the opposition’s message.

All that may be. But the margin was too big for there to be any question as to the legitimacy of the election, if like we Americans you believe you can spend whatever you want however you get and say whatever you want no matter how untrue.

And to tell you the truth, I think it goes further than that. Most Ugandans were not born during the terrible years of Idi Amin, but his legacy lingers as a dark blotch on the country’s reputation. But most Ugandans did experience many years of war with the Lords Resistance Army, and along their border during the Sudan conflict.

They are tired of conflict. Museveni is seen as having brought peace and stability. And more recently, oil. Oil has been discovered and will be extracted by Chinese which are building Uganda’s infrastructure faster than an ant colony builds tunnels.

What worries me in the long term is this is exactly the prescription for disaster that turned beautiful Zimbabwe into the dark side. The long civil war, and then the war for so long just across the border in Mozambique, brought battle fatigue to the librarian in the city. When a seemingly nice guy with strong ideas came along, he was embraced.

With time, he relied more and more on the military. Which is exactly what Museveni is doing now. The military was exemplary if not brilliant in their ending the wars with the LRA, but now … they have nothing to do but beat protestors.

And with the American right’s finances behind him, Museveni is set for life.

Just like Mugabe.

Salsa for the Torpedo?

Salsa for the Torpedo?

Guns — and guns not wanted by the military at that — instead of food. That’s America’s message to the world.

Republican successes in The House over the last two days are ruinous for the developing world, especially Africa. That’s not to say it will ultimately become law, but it sure doesn’t look good with our weak-minded president not directing any defense.

The House, the White House and the Senate are so far apart from each other right now it’s hard to imagine where this is all going to end up. But it doesn’t look good.

Why is no one – not one politician – talking of raising taxes? Corporate profits are the highest in history. Corporations are sitting on mounds of cash.

So instead of taxing a wee bit little more the rich and mighty, we’re going to starve Africa?

The House bill slashes the Food for Peace program by 40 percent, reducing and sometimes eliminating altogether food for 15 million people in places including East Africa, especially Ethiopian and The Sudan.

The McGovern-Dole Food for Education Program, which currently provides meals to about 4.5 million schoolchildren in poor countries, would be halved.

So, after we starve Africa, we’re going to build an extra jet engine for a plane the Pentagon has pleaded with Congress that it doesn’t want.

The $6 billion for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter extra engine that the Pentagon doesn’t want is being pushed through Congress, in part because the General Electric plant that builds the engine is near Speaker Boehner’s constituency.

That $6 billion is more than three years of all the food aid programs to Africa put together. In fact, we could raise our food aid to Africa if we didn’t have that program!

This is nuts!

Here’s the problem. In my life time we’ve lost a sense of community, to anywhere. I don’t mean just to the rest of the world, but even to our own communities. We have replaced caring for others with caring for the corporation.

The American has been brainwashed into not just thinking the greatest opportunities occur exclusively in the private sector, but only in the private sector without any community regulation or other involvement.

It’s nuts. It’s ignorant. It’s regressive. Now, it’s America.

Here’s another problem. We think of security as guns, and often as weapons that are so sophisticated they are the be-all and end-all of our engineering genius and private sector job creation programs. The youth of Africa starting in Tunisia and Egypt have discarded this ancient concept. So should we.

Finally, to the battle that looms:

Our failed “progressive” president lost the initiative when he proposed a reasonable budget rather than defining a starting position that could be negotiated down. We go down any further and we’ll all drown. And that’s after we sink Africa and the rest of the world.

Then, all that’s left to sink is ourselves.

Twevolution coming to East Africa?!

Twevolution coming to East Africa?!

Tomorrow’s presidential election in Uganda will either be the most unread news story in Africa, or the start of Twevolution in East Africa.

The current autocrat is expected to win handily, despite election fraud, unfair international support and his highly undemocratic style of overlording that is often brutal. But if he doesn’t … win handily … CNN might have another place for Anderson Cooper to visit.

The election battle is down to Uganda’s two most famous politicians and arch rivals, Dr. Kizza Besigye, otherwise known as the perpetual loser, against the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, otherwise known as dictator.

If Museveni wins he will be starting his fifth term and heading towards his 26th year of ruling Uganda. If he wins it’s in part because of long-term support of the American Right. (Get this: his campaign slogan right out of the dimwits of CStreet is, “No Change!”)

Here’s the problem. Kids don’t like grownups telling them what they can and can’t do when they reach their mid twenties.

This is essentially the reason for the Twevolution that’s sweeping the continent. African youth today are sharp, educated and infinitely more connected with the world than the old folks overlording them. That’s particularly true of Uganda.

I’m not saying that youth inherently believe in term limits, but they viscerally know how not changing political rule impedes and inhibits development.

Uganda is rapidly becoming the most backwards country in all of East Africa, when once upon a time, shortly after independence, it was the star. As if slapping this truth into its neighbor’s cheek last week, next-door Rwanda hosted an all-African conference that named Uganda the worst of the five regional East African nations in its capacity to develop.

In fact of all Africa’s 58 countries, Uganda was ranked 21st. That’s pretty awful when you consider that half of Africa’s countries are unstable or at war. (Tanzania, by the way, was 20th. Rwanda was 5th and Kenya was 4th. What was most startling of all, troubled little Burundi was ranked 13th!)

The report was chaired by one of the most respected Africans alive, Grace Machel, the widow of the former president of Mozambique.

Uganda’s youth knows this. And it seems that up to 85% of them are likely to vote tomorrow. In fact international observers on the ground expect a 75% turnout according to a leading newspaper in Uganda, although as many as 140,000 of those registered names may be dead, and 400,000 of them foreigners technically ineligible to vote.

So if the election is close … there is plenty of fodder for fire. The ironic thing is that it’s not expected to be close.

I’ve written before how Museveni is the darling of the American political right. They have been supporting his draconian efforts to do things America can’t, like ban abortions and make homosexuality a capital offense.

I haven’t been able to track it down carefully enough, so it simply remains a hunch right now that American Rightists along with their UK counterparts are stonewalling the World Bank from blocking aid funds that Museveni has been using to beef up his campaign.

The report that’s drawn my attention was published by a fiery, independent on-line publication in Uganda last month.

There’s no doubt that Museveni has used donor funds (including ours) for his campaign, which is one of the reasons he’ll probably win tomorrow. There has never been such a modern, expensive election in Africa before. And it’s been almost all one-sided: for Museveni. TV, ads, billboards, flyers, robocalls — you name it, right out of American campaigning.

It’s also been public that America and the UK are blocking efforts by NGOS like the World Bank from stopping this. The question is, who specifically in the U.S. is doing this?

Anyone out there that would like to prove me right, please go to work!

So with such huge funding support, with an economy that isn’t doing so badly, with enormous pride in the recent discoveries of oil and the relatively recent successful ending of the wars in the north, Museveni has the odds, even with a half million illegal voters.

But if his margin is less than the number of dead and foreign (half million) out of 7.5 million expected to vote, then watch out for Twevolution.

Twevolution in South Africa?

Twevolution in South Africa?

South African President Jacob Zuma dancing with his wife, Ms.
.... oh, sorry can't remember which one.
Twevolution is sweeping Africa’s dictators away. But could it go further? Is there a chance that pretty boy South Africa is next in line?

South Africa? you wonder out loud. Didn’t I say that South Africa started all this almost twenty years ago? [Yes] Haven’t I often hailed the new country’s constitution as nearly perfect? [Yes] Didn’t I write that its domestic policy was nicely redistributing wealth [Yes] and that its foreign policy particularly towards its neighbors was deftly professional?

Yes-Yes-Yes…but.

It could be that South Africa is trying to be such an exemplary modern society that the last vestige of nondemocratic states will be swept away by the Twevolution. And this last vestige is the authoritarian if not autocratic power held by the majority party in the government, the ANC (African National Congress).

And this nearly impenetrable wall of power (the ANC has continually held two-thirds or more of Parliament since Nelson Mandela first became president) might just be cracking by some of the most juvenile political pandering ever imagined.

It’s hard to fault Mandela for anything, much less astronomical majorities in the government he brought to power. But Mandela was not without his own political nasties. The relationship (or not) that he held (or not) with his wife, who at the time was almost equally powerful, we now recognize as tools to constrain the masses.

By most accounts Winnie Mandela would have been right up there with the Mubarak thugs that stormed Tahrir Square on camels. Winnie was convicted of murder and kidnaping but never served a day in jail.

And Mandela’s favor placing went unchecked for a long time. His close revolutionary associate, Cyril Ramaphosa, was set up in new South African businesses
with a patent disregard for either skills or capital once it was clear he would never become president.

Mandela was followed by another ANC miracle worker, Thabo Mbeki. Thabo was less star-strutted than Mandela so less scrutinized, but whatever good he did will forever be eclipsed in history by his paramount achievement: discovering that AIDS was not a virus.

Mbeki told his fellow countrymen to shower well after sex to avoid AIDS. Some claimed this was so he could more easily adjudicate claims against international insurance companies but I think it was to please the masses, develop their support. Whatever it was, it was criminal.

But today we have the biggest oaf of all: Jacob Zuma. Number Three President is famous for having ten wives, but the fact is it may be eleven or twelve. Protocol officials around the world never know what the state dinner place cards should read.

Zuma hails his ancient culture, but I’d put it otherwise: he hails vote getting.

And now Zuma has topped the charts . Last week while Egypt was readjusting world power, Zuma was creating his own eternal life.

“When you vote for the ANC,” he told a rally near Cape Town last week, “you are choosing to go to heaven. When you don’t vote for the ANC, you should know that you are choosing that man who carries a fork… who cooks people.”

Pardoning (or not) a powerful wife, setting your cronies up to be billionaires, denying the science of the disease AIDS that’s killing your people, flaunting culture and preaching eternal life only to those who follow you … none of these juvenile if neurotic acts has managed to derail South Africa’s basically good trajectory into the modern world.

But Twevolution is youth driven, and youth in Africa are incredibly intelligent. You can take just so much nonsense before realizing how distracting it can be from dealing with the pressing issues at hand.

Twevolution may not topple the South African system, but there are growing sounds that it just may topple the idiots at the top

Peace is IN!

Peace is IN!


There were people hurt. There were people killed. But the victims were not the losers in a fight, because…they didn’t fight. They protested. Peacefully. Martin Luther King would have been proud. The successful Egyptian revolution was one of peaceful protest.

I know you’ve seen pictures of bloodied faces and bodies being carried, and tear gas wafting through the scene. But please keep in mind there were millions of people protesting. The “death toll” is around 400 and a significantly large proportion of these were actually outside Cairo where (a) there are far fewer educated people and (b) any kind of meaningful protest means anything at all.

Americans have a difficult time analyzing and gauging political change, because our own system is so befuddled by confusion. Take the health care issue, for example. To me and I hope the vast majority of sane onlookers, this is a baby step towards a society that guarantees the health of all its citizens. But I don’t have to remind you of how many think radically differently.

So we tend to listen to change that is evident and obvious and immediate, and I think we also sort of fear it. We are worried that change will take away or at least restrict the rights we currently enjoy, which are wonderfully substantial. So for the vast millions of Americans who still don’t know who Mubarak is much less Elbaradei or Wael Ghonim, they pay attention only when something of ultimate drama happens: death. That’s what TV is made of.

But the fact is that there were very, very few deaths compared to the demonstrations that took place. This is remarkable. Imagine the hundreds of thousands of unarmed and determined individuals who so believed in human rights that they stood upright against heavily armed security forces. Who were ready to sacrifice their safety for an idea. Fortunately, a ridiculously small proportion had to. In fact, it’s something of a testament to the restraint of the security forces and particularly the army that so few were hurt.

I remember my own days as a youthful protester in the 1960s, unarmed as the Egyptians were, charged by police as the Egyptians were, tear-gassed as the Egyptians were, shot at as the Egyptians were. And our few friends who were hurt and died were unarmed, as the few Egyptians who were hurt and unarmed.


There are literally hundreds of videos like the one above, showing hundreds and thousands of protesters, unarmed, demonstrating against highly armed government forces. But by their sheer numbers and naked sacrifice, they won. They’ve won round one.

In America especially we tend to focus on the violence of any event, for two main reasons: it’s wrong, and it makes good TV. But what every person must take so far from the Egyptian revolution is that given the hundreds of thousands of people involved, the millions ultimately, the amount of violence was unimaginably small.

It’s hard for Americans to imagine a dictator falling with so little violence. We are told our wars are waged against dictators, and the level of violence that follows our policy is legend. The number of our own soldiers killed much less locals in Afghanistan and Iraq to topple that regime numbers in the tens if not hundreds of thousands.

We can’t believe Egypt has changed regimes with fewer deaths in a month than America sustained monthly in Afghanistan and Iraq for years.

But it’s true. Grasp it and embrace it. Only good will come out of this. There will be many skeptics and cynics out there now saying, “Yes, but what will come next?” I’m not so naive as to suggest this revolution is over, completed. But I’m idealistic enough and optimistically hopeful enough to command the axiom that only good can come out of the power of peace.

Revolution on TV

Revolution on TV

So what’s more important: water or security? Egypt is as critically important to East Africa as to America, but it is America that is consumed with watching real-time developments there.

The infamous 1917 Balfour Declaration, which is arguably one of the diplomatic starting points for the current drama in Egypt, was not a singular British act. A series of British treaties about the use of the Nile River was thrust on East African countries about the same time as well.

The notorious 1929 treaty, and the brazen 1959 treaty (I say “brazen” because by 1959 Britain had already decided to give independence to most of East Africa) ceded the use of Nile waters, which arise in East Africa and flow through it, to Egypt.

Water use may be the most critical development tool left in the world. Yet as it stands now, Egypt has successfully enforced its treaties with East Africa, effectively denying Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and the Sudan, sovereign use of the river.

Everyone in East Africa knows that a new Egyptian regime, particularly a democratic one, will be more disposed to reconsidering these one-way, counter-intuitive agreements.

So what happens in Egypt could have a much greater impact on the lives of East Africans than the lives of Americans.

Americans don’t have to worry about water. So we have found other things to worry about, the principal being terrorism. What happens in Egypt now is an intriguing chess came the outcome of which we fear will effect our security.

Yes, probably, but not as much as how it will effect the use of water in East Africa.

So why are Americans so much more consumed with what’s happening in Egypt than East Africans?

Because like so much in American life, we have turned the event into one of entertainment, and that it seems is our paramount endeavor.

And because the rest of the world struggles more. They know on a daily basis how to deal with true threats and denials of basic needs.

In America, today, nothing gets learned except as entertainment. Everything from new cancer drugs to space discoveries is presented as a movie. Incidental perhaps to what are truly our daily needs like a meal and a few breaths of fresh air, we have become so well off that to get our attention about anything we need good graphics and Dolby surround sound.

And this is also why we’re so obsessed with “security.” Because security guarantees uninterrupted entertainment.

I confess. I’ve got Aljazeera streaming in the office right now, and I flip between CNN and MSNBC waiting for the figurative pyramids to fall. And then?

Anti-America Sentiment Grows

Anti-America Sentiment Grows


As Egypt’s struggles continue anti-American sentiment grows in places as far away and dear to me as Kenya. Some of this is envy of the powerful but some of it legitimately derides an unfair world order.

Yesterday a widely read blogger in Nairobi associated with one of its main talk radios warned Kenyans of “the rude awakening that has visited the people of Egypt” that their leaders have been “serving a foreign master’s agenda.”

And that master was, among a few others, America.

With bitterness that verged on vitriol, Solomon Gichira writes, “We all know one or two reasons as to why the world came running to our rescue after the 2007/8 election crisis… because they feared losing supplies from our flower or dairy industries among others. However, they will never package their interests that plainly.”

Gichira is referring to the massive intervention by mainly the U.S. and Britain following Kenya’s fraudulent 2007 elections. Led by Kofi Annan the international rescue of Kenya included more than $10 billion and supported first a power sharing deal between the two rival candidates for president and a range of incentives that led to Kenya’s new, excellent August 2010 constitution.

Gichira is dead wrong when he gets specific yet important because he represents a huge swath of public opinion in the educated developing world. Moreover, his general contention is right: world powers don’t do anything altruistically; it must be in self-interest.

U.K. and U.S. interests could care less if Manchester flower markets don’t have enough roses. A more important reason, “strategic interest” in polispeak, is Kenya’s geopolitical position in the war on terror. Kenya’s often superficially irritating actions in this regard, like allowing Omar al-Bashir into the country, detaining radical mullahs without trial, and letting military equipment sneak overland into the South Sudan, are all applauded silently in the halls of Westminster and Washington.

And Kenya’s overt actions with regards to the South Sudan and its constant border squabbles with whatever is left of Somali receive constant praise from the west.

These are the west’s true interests. But Gichira is right: it is an agenda dictated from abroad, one that is not necessarily wholly in Kenya’s interests.

Gichira’s account of the modern history of Egypt and its neighbors leaves something to be desired, but he basically underscores the botched handling of the “Jewish question” and the poor way that both Israel and subsequently Palestine were created by world powers. He rightly conveys in my opinion how Britain deftly relieved itself of Jewish prejudice by exporting it to the Middle East where it ferments worse today.

And he’s right on when berating Britain and France’s manipulation with the U.S. in the security council of the nascent Arab revolutions to overthrow potentates like Farouk, how this led to anti-American sentiment and Cold War support by Russia. That led, by the way, to those “revolutionary” regimes being subverted still again … just by the east, instead of the west.

So basically while I think like so many revolutionary enthusiasts Gichira misuses facts at his peril, his conclusions reflect the feelings of many of us progressives in the west: Developing world peoples have been mistreated mostly by being ignored, and when not ignored, by being used for “self-interest.”

The problem is that I don’t know how this could ever have been different. Big guys bully small guys. That’s our world order. And try as we do to elevate this morality, we just haven’t been able to yet.

“What is not told to the ordinary reader is that the Camp David agreement” Gichira writes “brought with it huge American goodies to the Egyptian leadership” including “financial and military support” and “America’s blind eye to oppression and suppression of any conscious or dissenting voices” in Egypt.

And so now for “the US and Tel Aviv administrations, the chicken have finally come to roost.”

Gichira now tells us that we will “painfully watch as you lose your Mubarak. Not to your well equipped American-Anglo-French-Jewish military muscle, but to the unarmed power of a dissenting population that has had enough of your meddling. At that point, you will remember that the silence Egyptians over these years of your misdeeds and myopic interest was not anything like an acceptance but a big lie.”

Powerful stuff.

I don’t like feeling the whipping boy in a geopolitical contest of David vs Goliath, but I am the American and Gichira is the Kenyan. In the global context of world history, I am the villain simply because I’ve been the privileged, and Gichira is the victim, simply because he’s been the less privileged.

I could apologize for my ancestors’ misdeeds, but I don’t know what would have been better, so I can’t apologize. I don’t know that there would have been a better way.

But what I do know now, thanks to the transparency and intellectual stimulation that gives rise to voices like Solomon Gichira, is that we can begin to act responsibly in a global way, right now. We can stop any overt or tacit support of the Mubarak regime. We can let the streets play out, because now, those Egyptians, like Gichira, are totally capable of handling their own affairs.

Let them come to power, and then let them deal with us. We, too, were once revolutionaries.

Government by the Smart Phone

Government by the Smart Phone

Nairobi cartoonist GADO mocks the African Union's gathering to discuss Egypt.
African governments are toppling because of smart phones. So what happens next? Are taxes set by tweets?

In the last several years significant revolutions happened in Kenya, the Sudan and Ivory Coast, and now Tunisia and Egypt. Africa is on the move; it’s changing faster than we understand.

No surprise to me. Just how fast it’s happening is what boggles the mind. It all seemed to begin with the end of apartheid in South Africa. That was a journey for those liberating that struggle that spanned a lifetime – not exactly fast.

Next in line was the Sudan, a troubled place to be sure, but the actual revolution that has led to a new country started only 6 years ago – again, not supersonic, but speeding up.

Then came Kenya. It’s revolution started in December, 2007, after a failed election and essentially came to fruition with a radically new constitution in August, 2010. Getting faster.

A failed election in the Ivory Coast has that country yet in the throes of radical change. Then Tunisia changed over a few weekends, and now Egypt, yet to play fully out.

The momentum for change has snowballed. And there are quite a few countries left. Tremors are being felt in Tanzania, Uganda, Algeria, Jordan and even sleepy cozy Morocco. If there were more people in Botswana, they would already have had a revolution, there, but instead a shouting match in Parliament will have to do.

What is happening? Dare I ask if Obama’s IT techniques to excite youth is now a model worldwide?

Writing in Kenya’s Daily Nation last week, Catholic University of East Africa professor Maurice Amutabi answered, “Though … Obama is the first known leader to successfully use the Internet … to ascend to power, his success is being emulated all over.”

“Students of history and political science are thrilled by the people power in Tunisia and Egypt. We have not seen anything like it before. It makes the Storming of the Bastille during the French Revolution look ordinary.”

Amutabi delves into this a little bit further. Motivated by less than 144 character tweets, it’s not exactly possible to rally an ideology. People power grows around very narrow goals:

Amutabi knows that the new, youthful forces “have nothing to do with religious zeal or fanaticism.” In fact, he claims, “These crowds do not have any ideology, apart from the fact that they want a change…”

YES WE CAN
CHANGE WE CAN DEPEND ON
.. are both sweet little tweets.

I was so intrigued by Amutabi’s oped that I emailed him for a further analysis. If such narrow goals can bring down governments that have been in power for portions of centuries, and if they’re done so by tweets, what comes next? What happens once people power succeeds?

Amutabi believes that the “tech-savvy” youth will continue to use their technique to vet leaders with greater depth “who are progressive enough to represent the interests of a wider of spectrum of society. The youth have a better chance to consult and reach a consensus on who is a good leader, largely because of ICT.”

Amutabi believes that current leaders arose to power on a series of misrepresentations of themselves. We all know the slogans of politicians worldwide: “This is what the people want me to do” etc etc. “I was elected by the people to” whatever.

Amutabi believes that today’s “information flow is faster and leaders cannot hide their true selves… People get to know about them long before they become prominent.”

So not just a small coterie of investigative journalists and their elite readers would have known that George Bush was a drunk and bankrupt sports club owner? And that would have done the trick?

Perhaps. Although I fear Amutabi’s enthusiasm for the current revolutionary change might discount too heavily an entrenched politic’s capacity to ignore the truth. In America even today there remains a sizeable portion of society who believes Obama was not born here.

But what I found most exciting if unsettling about Amutabi’s beliefs is once people power succeeds and puts its leaders in power, then what?

Must internet polling be used to pass every piece of legislation, for instance?

Will the populations expect to be consulted on every major issue that previously governments decided on their own?

“Yes,” Amutabi answered without hesitation. “The populations are alert to any changes and would demand accountability and transparency…. They have acquired new meaning of their power and gained a taste of strength in numbers and will not look back.”

Wow. This makes California referendums look like grade school elections for what dessert should be served for lunch.

“I believe they will push all the time until they get what they want,” Amutabi concludes. “The political landscape in Africa might never be the same again.”

Or anywhere there’s a smart phone.

Feed the Beast to Sleep

Feed the Beast to Sleep

What the fizzled Egyptian revolution tells us is that the power of the people rises not so much for freedom as for bread. And who am I but a fat and comfortable American to think there’s anything wrong with that?

Today’s demonstrations are pitiful by last week’s standards. It’s also more rigidly organized, capable of orchestrated violence. It’s a quickly maturing opposition that lost Round One. Round One’s heart and soul was people power; that’s gone. Next moves – if they exist at all – must be contemplated without people power.

People power has retreated to homes and businesses. Many workers want to start spending the 15% pay rises announced over the weekend by the Egyptian government. The more effete have the promises of political reform to solace them at night. “Free” is an adjective being attached to everything from the continuing protest to Hare Krishna dancing.

We know different, of course: our media celebrities are now confined to describing their confinements: the press has been muzzled as never before. There’s internet, again. There’s even the Google executive let out of jail. Yet Egypt progressives write feverishly of a crackdown of dissidents in serious high gear, now directed by the so-called people friendly army not police.

My style carries gloom, but also guilt. I fret about which is more important: the crackdown, the disheartened revolution, the recovery of most power by Mubarak with the same indecision about which kind bagel I should pull from my well-stocked pantry to toast.

Mubarak can’t afford 15% pay rises to a huge section of his population with pipe lines being blown up, tourists fleeing the country and capital evaporating. But don’t forget sugar daddy sitting just to the southeast. I suspect some remarkable new alliances between Egypt and Saudia Arabia are being worked out right now.

If sugar daddy runs out of sugar, that’s another story altogether. Bread digests quickly. If there’s not more in the days ahead, people power will rise, again.

But feed the beast long enough and it will go to sleep. The emasculation of rapid ideological change is a longer process. Sometimes it works quickly, like in China. And sometimes it works slowly, like in Zimbabwe.

But it always seems to work.

Serengeti Highway Muddle

Serengeti Highway Muddle

The great Serengeti Watch organization announced over the weekend that they had an advance copy of the Tanzanian government’s environmental impact study necessary for proceeding with the highway, but they didn’t analyze it for us. This is a serious mistake.

The 600-page report has not yet been officially released, but you can get to it through Serengeti Watch by clicking here.

I haven’t read it, and like many supporters of Serengeti Watch I’m upset that they led me to the document without some coaching as to what should be looked at in the 600 pages. The point of Serengeti Watch is to guide those of us who have placed our trust in them to take the lead. They’ve dropped an enormous opportunity, here.

Please, Serengeti Watch, give us a few more details and fast, before others not quite so sympathetic will do so.

Twevolution in Egypt!

Twevolution in Egypt!

As this blog goes to press millions are at Tahrir Square just ending prayers. This mostly and remarkably peaceful revolution is a new kind. No longer revolution, but Twevolution!

Click here! This is a live twitter feed of the Revolution!

Peaceful attempts to topple governments in my lifetime have been mostly failures. The one possible exception was the toppling of Peru’s President Fujimora in 2000 although it was not just the people in the streets but Peru’s other arms of government including its military that wanted him gone.

But in all the other cases, government change only came after tremendous violence often involving foreign governments.

This appears to be different. Really different.

Woe to Boeing and Lockheed, but it seems that fighter bombers might have been replaced by….

Twitter. Facebook. YouTube and so much more!

The amateur video which follows was picked up by AlJazeera and probably did more than any other video to really fuel the revolution. It shows the first street confrontation on January 28 between protesters and police, finally won by the protesters.

The video below was created a week earlier by a single, courageous woman pleading with everyone to join her in protest. She challenges watchers with the memory of Mohammed Bouazizi, the Tunisian who self-immolated himself.

Peaceful protest in the past seemed to be destined for failure. How many bodies must fall in front of a tank before the phlanx of bodies succeeds? Buddhism and nonviolence has thus had a checkered history.

But until now, Buddhism and nonviolence lacked a winning tool.

There is an answer to “how many bodies” and Tahrir Square may just have them at this very minute. There is a calculus where not even a nuclear bomb can suppress a united protest.

When NBC reporter Richard Engel was asked on a live internet feed Wednesday night what strategy the anti-government protesters could possibly employ to counter the armed and carefully organized thugs fighting them, he hesitated, but then answered enthusiastically, “Information!”

That’s it! America is discombobulated by competing media pretending to report social will but actually governed by a need to produce entertainment. So even while we are in possession of the greatest technology skills and assets in the world, and while those were used to elect our first black president, I see them mostly coopted by our commercial priorities.

But not a place like Egypt. Desperation is very subjective. It’s completely fair to say that many in the U.S. feel as desperate trapped by the socio-economic system as Mohammed Bouazizi felt within his Tunisian society before he set himself on fire. But as that first video by that courageous young woman explains, there are alternatives in this highly connected world to removing yourself from society.

Mohammed’s action galvanized the desperation in his society. But not with steel and bullets, just with … Nielson Ratings!

Finally enough voices fell in line that their universal message could not be defeated even by overwhelming force.

Alive in Egypt is a consolidation site of videos, audio and tweets.

More skilled videos being created from around the world about the revolution can be found at Mibazaar.

“We Are All Khalid” is among Facebook’s most influential pages.

There are hundreds of sites like this one, and this one.

Was it Richard Engel who said it? This is the Information Revolution?

Egypt Picture Hard to Read

Egypt Picture Hard to Read

Because there are so many tourists in Egypt, and because there’s no legal requirement that tour companies honestly reveal the scope of their operations, it’s very difficult to get an accurate picture of tourists and tourism right now. But here’s my best try.

Before the trouble last week, the U.S. State Department reported there were about 50,000 Americans in the country, of which 3-5000 were tourists. Since January 25, probably 6-7000 of those have left, of which 1500 may be tourists. That leaves around 3500 tourists and 43,500 nontourist Americans in Egypt right now.

And I venture to say they will not be hurt. No one likes what’s happening in Tahrir Square, now, but the violence in the country is localized. Savvy tourists will remain safe.

About a third of the 6-7000 Americans who have been able to leave did so aboard U.S. government supplied evacuation charters. But most of the travelers on the U.S. government charters were not tourists; they were government workers and U.S. residents living in Egypt.

Two-thirds of the Americans who have evacuated seemed to have done so on commercial flights.

Since 2800 Americans had previously registered with the U.S. State Department as intending to visit Egypt now, I estimate there were about 5000 American tourists there when the trouble started last week.

Tourist registration with foreign consulates is a service all countries provide, but in recent times it’s mostly large tour companies that register their clients, rather than individuals, and it’s usually hardly a third to a half of the actual tourists who travel.

In the best of times true tourist numbers are very hard to get. This is because no U.S. or foreign agency reports the numbers of people entering or leaving a country in real-time. The U.S. is the best for reporting inbound tourists on a quarterly basis. But Egypt, for example, reports suspicious statistics only once annually.

What irritates me is that in the absence of being able to get this hard information, media turns to professional tour companies. This is a terrible mistake, because most tour companies (especially American ones) grossly inflate their actual production and often to the great pleasure of host countries.

Yesterday, for instance, in a single dispatch from Moscow reported in Britain’s Daily Mail the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported a ridiculous 45,000 Russians touring in the country at the moment. In virtually the same paragraph, Konstantin Shvartser of the Pegas Touristik said there were only 18,000. And in a continuation of the numbers folly, he then claimed only 18 Russians altogether want to leave the country, now.

USAToday reports on tourism by surveying well-known American tour companies like Abercrombie & Kent and Grand Circle.

But those (good) companies won’t reveal their numbers, and the fact is that the majority of American tourists traveling to Egypt these days don’t use established tour companies like these, so what’s happening to their customers is really rather insignificant to the bigger picture.

Most travelers to Egypt, today, book through the internet often directly with Egyptian companies. It’s likely, in fact, that as many Americans book Nile cruises with British companies as with American companies.

In trying to gauge the “real situation” imagine being a resident of Washington, D.C. or Watts in L.A. during the riots of the 1960s. The longer the crisis continues, the more basic services become strained of course. But unless you actually walk into the midst of the trouble, until strained services reach a critical point, you’re probably going to be OK.

Officially, most foreign nations have advised their citizens to avoid central Cairo and Alexandria. But many European countries, including Britain, have advised tourists who find themselves elsewhere (such as Sharm el-Sheik or Luxor) to remain until travel to international airports becomes easier and safer.

Most Nile cruises have stopped sailing, although we also know that large companies like Sonesta (which owns 5 ships), Sofitel and Hilton are continuing to provide services (food, shelter) to passengers who were onboard when the trouble broke out.

“Living conditions in Cairo and the risks to foreigners are not quite as bad as they may appear in the media,” writes the only excellent coverage I’ve so far found, in today’s Huffington Post.

So the bottom line is that the vast majority of foreigners, including tourists, remain in the country and have had enough time to position themselves in a safe way. Commercial flights continue to operate at the Cairo airport.

I am no expert on the MidEast, and I have been wrong in predictions before. But as one experienced traveler voice, I don’t see what’s happening in Egypt right now as dangerous for the tourists or foreign residents who unfortunately find themselves there.