Victorious fighters of al-Shabaab

Victorious fighters of al-Shabaab

youngsoldiersLess than 24 hours after the UN Security Council approved continued funding of the Somali peace-keeping force, that force may have been routed from the capital by al-Qaeda.

After a night of intense fighting in Mogadishu, the blogosphere is replete with claims that al-Shabaab (al-Qaeda in Somalia) is near to taking over. Reuters was unable to make contact with any of the UN Peace Keepers.

“This fighting was the worst in months,” Mogadishu resident Ahmed Hashi told Reuters.

The world’s recent attention on Yemen as a cauldron for al-Qaeda growth came way too late. And now it seems not even the UN realizes how serious the situation in Somalia is.

This incessant game of catch-up, of pushing the “War Against Terror” from one country to another and always too late, now threatens the legacy of stability the west helped to create in East Africa.

The UN force had been trying to protect the pitifully weak “interim Somali government” which has not even controlled the entire capital city for the last year.

Al-Shabaab on the other hand has slowly established control over a huge portion of the country. In October these mostly foreign fighters took control of large towns near the Kenyan border.

Only the pirate-held area near Kismayu seems out of al-Shabaab’s grasp.

And where are all these weapons coming from? We’re not talking about machetes. There are tanks and missile launchers.

The fighting today reminds me of the 1980s Cold War days when America-backed Somali fought Russia- backed Ethiopia in the useless Ogaden desert that separates the two countries. Thousands of tanks. Thousands and thousands of mortars. Even jet fighters. For a completely useless piece of land.

That legacy left want and destruction then chaos, and at the time most of us didn’t even know that battles which rivaled those of WWII were going on the Horn.

We left want and destruction all over the Horn, proxy battles for the parlor room politics back in Washington and Moscow. The McCarthy hearings were shameful, the Vietnam War apocalyptic to world peace, but the number of Ethiopians and Somalis who were killed in the 1980s fighting for Communism vs. Capitalism and since killed as a result far out numbers the 58,196 names on Washington’s Vietnam Wall.

That was a generation ago. The children born then, now the fighters of al-Shabaab, now know no other life.

State of the World

State of the World

StateofUTonight it’s possible that more viewers outside the United States will watch President Obama’s State of the Union than from his own country.

Brian Williams’ and Katie Couric’s audience shrivels when compared to that of Owen Bennett-Jones, who today ends his BBC World Service specials on America just before airing the State of the Union live around the world.

“Is America really obsessed with God, gays and guns?” Bennett-Jones asks, today, as his final introduction to the world’s most powerful leader’s annual speech.

Yes.

Nairobi’s Capital FM Radio’s Eric Latiff reminded his fellow citizens on the eve of the address that corrupt Kenyan leaders “ will NOT step aside to allow investigations …unless foreigners (read donors) push them out of office.”

Like we do in Ecuador and Honduras, Afghanistan and Iraq, Thailand and Laos, and Rwanda and Uganda as well as Latiff’s Kenya.

We rule mostly by money, but also by arms (which seem to be less effective, today).

So today in Kenya, for instance, the U.S. announced it was withholding around $30 million promised for the country’s education system because of corruption. We also announced continued and increasing travel bans on certain Kenyan officials from entering the U.S. (where most of them store their money).

There is nothing illegal or immediately immoral in these powerful acts, and in Kenya most citizens actually support them. Because as in the U.S. right now, most citizens distrust the bums who have been elected to govern them.

So what we have in the world is distrusted bums governing distrusted bums.

Governing us.

Extend your universe, tonight. Pull up the BBC or Nairobi’s Capital FM. Note how powerful Barack Obama is perceived and whether true or not, how powerful the U.S. Ship of State is. The Ship of State floated by you.

The Monkey & The Butterfly

The Monkey & The Butterfly

Monkey & ButterlyThe 2009 “Year of the Gorilla” ended very beautifully and very sad. The butterflies will just have to wait.

It was a sad coincidence from the start that the YOG planned so long in advance occurred as the world tailspinned into economic collapse. The whole point of these sponsored years is to focus attention and funds into what has been essentially world organized successes.

The success of the mountain gorilla project is legendary. Its foundation rests not on celebrities like the poorly trained and personally dysfunctional Dian Fossey. (Indeed, I strongly believe after her initial success in publicizing the plight of gorillas, she was more responsible for inhibiting development of the project than any other individual.)

Rather, the remarkable success was with the people – kids at the time – who really sacrificed part of their young professional lives to the cause: they were willing to work in the super-nova umbra of Fosey under enormous difficulties.

George Shaller did the science. Bill Weber and Amy Vedder followed him and created this hall-of-fame project that merged gorilla conservation with local development including tourism. And this triad of science and society had no precedent.

It was an amazing beginning, and you can buy their dramatic story from Amazon by clicking here.

The next tier was the grunt field workers cum- or to become scientists and legions of social workers and volunteers and probably primary among them was Craig Sholley. Click here to visit the conservation organization Craig now works for.

So as the heydays of the last decade whirled by with more good news than bad on the conservation front, it made sense to top off the century with the Year of the Gorilla.

Not their fault, Goldman Sachs. So while the various organizations involved have yet to tally the proceeds, the talk on the street is not good. Maybe less than half what was hoped to have been raised was actually realized.

But there are good stories, nonetheless. Researchers, students and volunteers supported by the YOG in Bwindi national park have blazed new trails and new science, and along the way, have even discovered a few new … butterflies.
mass of butterflies
This picture was taken by the volunteer named Douglas Sheil last week in the Bwindi forest. In this montage of several photos are two new species of butterflies.

“We don’t know a huge amount about Bwindi’s butterfly fauna though it appears to be richer than other forests in Uganda,” be blogged.

He then went on to list a few species still lacking confirmation and English names, and basically, took the pictures and left the science.

For others, when funds become available.

Ivory Sink Hole

Ivory Sink Hole

Tanzania conservation authorities have plunged into quicksand and the sink hole could take all of East Africa with it.

This weekend Tanzania confirmed that it was aggressively trying to convince the 175 members of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) to approve the sale of elephant ivory.

All the surrounding countries except Zambia strongly condemned the announcement by Director of Wildlife Erasmus Tarimo.

Kenya pointed out this was Tanzania’s worst year for elephant poaching in more than two decades. The announcement also followed a sad report Thursday that 12 rhinos had been poached in what had been considered the poaching-free park of Kruger in South Africa.

The United States has yet to take sides. This is a very troubling matter. The convention opens next month.

The irony is that one of the reasons Tanzania wants sales to be allowed is because it has confiscated so much illegal ivory just this year. Tarimo says the country is warehousing more than 90 tonnes of elephant tusks.

Based on the last such auctioned sale, that could be worth $20 million.

But the cycle of irony is self-perpetuating. If Tanzania gets to sell its ivory, there is likely to be more poaching as the market for ivory widens. Tanzania will confiscate more illegal ivory. Tanzania is discovering a mafia-like way to reap the rewards from what it claims is wrong.

”They (Cites) will track down our record in the past ten years to see history of elephants in the country,” Tarimo said, noting that the species have been increasing over the last ten years.

And you can be certain the Kenyans will highlight the horrible “history of elephant poaching in Tanzania” just this year alone.

All the countries in Africa with elephants hold large stockpiles of ivory, including Kenya. The southern African countries, which have historically managed anti-poaching infinitely better than the rest of the continent, have continually argued for controlled auctioned sales of ivory.

CITES has allowed three such sales, but never from the East African market.

Best game in October

Best game in October

Niki Roberts [email protected] asks:

Q. We are getting mixed messages about where to see the most animals in October.

A. At any time of the year, in any weather condition, there are more animals seen on an East African safari than on any other safari anywhere else in Africa, including all of southern Africa. As a comparison consider that normally on a two-week safari at the best time of the year for southern Africa game viewing (July – September) you will likely see 10-15 lions. At the best time of year for an East African safari (March – June), you’re likely to see 70-80 lion. Similar comparisons exists for most of the other animals as well.

While that is an absolutely true and definitive statement, the statement that March – June is the best time to see animals in East Africa is a little bit more qualified. This is because — unlike southern Africa which is definitively south of the equator and has absolute climate seasons — East Africa lies astride the equator. This means the seasons are not really very different from one another, and it also means that the weather is much more complicated. This is true around the world at the equator because of the confluence of jet streams wirling around against one another.

Rain patterns are pretty well established, though, and that’s what I base my statement on. The rainiest time in all of East Africa is March – June. That’s why it’s the best time for seeing the most animals. This is when they’re fat and sassy and less stressed, meaning more viewable. It’s also the only time of the year when the great wildebeest migration is all in one place at one time: the southern grassland plains of the Serengeti. So in other words, this is the ONLY time during the year that in one view from a mountain top near Lemuta you have the chance to see between 150-200,000 animals, the maximum a wide-horizon view will allow when they’re packed together.

BUT in the wet season predation is much harder — for obvious reasons — so the number of predators that you’ll see easily is often less than what you’d see in the dry season. In October on a two-week safari in East Africa, the number of lion you’re likely to see can double, to over 100.

I prefer the beauty of the wet season: the gorgeousness of the veld, the abundance of game, the large numbers of babies, the abundance of birds (because all the European migrants have joined the African species to increase the total species count to more than 700)and the general state of the veld: much less dust, for instance. Ironically it also coincides with the “low season” so the rates are the cheapest. Low season doesn’t mean it’s a bad time to travel. This is the low season for most places all over the world — it’s just a time that people don’t travel for some reason.

Finally, you may be interested in why you’re confused! Game viewing in East Africa started in Kenya in the late 1950s, early 1960s. Travel was much more difficult then. The cut tracks in the national parks weren’t very well maintained, and the vehicles were pretty bad — mostly minibuses. Imagine traveling through areas of mud with a poor vehicle! (By the way, rainy season is not like London, but like summer in the Midwest: grand, dramatic afternoon thunderstorms with the rest of the day and night beautifully clear.)

Also fortunate for Kenya, the dry season is featured by about a third of the great migration coming into Kenya’s Mara. So it was absolutely true to say, at least in the 1950s and 1960s, that the best time for game viewing was during our summer and fall, during Kenya’s dry season.

But that changed when vehicles changed and parks got better tracks. Today we mostly use Landrovers which have no problem with a bit of mud. The tracks are better, and northern Tanzania is now developed. In the days when the myth of the best game viewing during dry times developed, there wasn’t even a Tarangire National Park and very few roads at all in the Serengeti!

But of course the Kenyan operators are not going to help you explode this myth! The Kenyan’s rainy season is much shorter than in northern Tanzania; Kenya is a much drier place all year long, and so if you accept — as I’m arguing — that the wet season is better for game viewing than the dry season, then the Kenyans are immediately going to be upset.

But those are the facts!

It’s peaceful in Kenyan prisons

It’s peaceful in Kenyan prisons

Friday's Daily Nation cartoon.  The black briefcase carries the name of Kenya's immigration minister.
Friday's Daily Nation cartoon.
The black briefcase carries the name of Kenya's immigration minister.
Today was supposed to be explosive in Kenya as Muslim activitists took to the street. They can’t. They’re mostly behind bars.

Over the last three days Kenyan authorities have arrested up to 2,000 Muslims across the country, most of them jailed for being “illegal immigrants.”

The crackdown followed last Friday’s riots in Nairobi, provoked (according to the government) by Muslim militants backed by al-Qaeda in Somalia (al-Shabaab). The demonstrators were demanding the release of cleric Abdullah al-Faisal, who the government has been trying to deport.

And further government embarrassment, yesterday: After weeks of trying to get commercial airlines to take Faisal out of the country, the government chartered its own Gulfstream jet wihch broke down on the runway before take-off.

As far as we know, Faisal is still in the country. And activist Muslims are still in jail.

By early afternoon today in Kenya all was calm.

Friday during prayers Muslim leaders around the country told their faithful to avoid further demonstrations. A statement read in thousands of mosques from the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims condemned the police action but called on all Muslims — particularly infuriated youth — to stay at home, today.

Click here for the full statement as reprinted by Kenya’s FM Capital radio.

Officially the government claims that 1200 “illegal immigrants” have been detained. Unofficially, police put the number closer to 2000. Around 400 have already appeared in court.

Among those known detained are refugees from Somali, including two army generals and 11 Members of Parliament that had fled the growing military success of the al-Shabaab militia.

This is not good.

Many of the Somali refugees in Kenya are not radical; in fact, just the opposite. They’ve fled the fighting there because they are targets of the radicals. In all likelihood, they were moderating influences among Kenya’s Muslim community.

Thursday, a widely circulated internet site claiming to be al-Shabaab posted videos of militant jihadists shouting, “God willing we will arrive in Nairobi, we will enter Nairobi, God willing we will enter … when we arrive we will hit, hit until we kill, weapons we have, praise be to God, they are enough.”

But in a telephone interview with Reuters, today, al-Shabaab spokesman, Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage denied the site was authentic and said the organization had nothing to do with last Friday’s riots in Kenya.

Now, what? And can anybody get that plane off the ground?

Right to Kenya

Right to Kenya

Two mysterious American lawyers are in The Netherlands trying to stop the international trial of Kenyans accused of genocide in the December, 2007 election.

This is an affront to justice and Kenyan society, and there are links to these men with the rightist neo-cons of the former administration. Which makes it even more of an affront to Kenyan’s earnest attempt to move on from that horrible time.

Prof. Max Hilaire and self-proclaimed lawer, William Cohn, appeared before the international court at The Hague expressly to forestall or terminate the Court’s procedures against ten Kenyans accused of crimes against humanity during the turbulence that followed the December, 2007, election.

Kenyans are shocked.

“Kenyans are seeking an end to impunity and to ensure accountability and justice for the over 1,000 Kenyans who lost their lives, the over 300,000 IDPs who lost their homes and the over 5,000 women who were sexually assaulted,” read a statement signed by prominent Nairobi lawyer, Naomi Wagereka.

Wagereka cited recent polls in Kenya indicating that a large majority of Kenyans want the perpetrators of the post election violence tried at the Court in the Hague.

The trial of the accused moved out of Kenya to The Hague when the Kenyan Government was unable to come to terms defining the trial, as was agreed in the political deal that ended the violence in February, 2008.

In that agreement, a time limit was set for the Kenyan Government to create something akin to South Africa’s Truth & Reconciliation Commission to deal with the perpetrators of that violence. The limit was extended several times before the government conceded that the trial should go to the Hague.

The vast majority of Kenyans, and now a consensus among government leaders, were therefore stunned by the news that two unknown Americans were trying to stop the procedings.

The chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC) Luis Moreno-Ocampo dismissed the American’s actions as “unfounded”. He told Nairobi’s Standard newspaper that the Americans were simply delaying the procedings.

The two Americans’ brief argues that Kenya’s case does not meet the Court’s threshold of crimes against humanity, and that it is ‘overstretched’ and ‘exaggerated’.

Hilaire is associated with a number of right-wing organizations, particularly the Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, which is often used by Fox News for commentary on defense issues.

He has authored several books, with recurrent themes that criticize the formation of the ICC and challenging the authority of a number of institutions, including the United Nations.

His sidekick, William Cohn, has been repeatedly reported by news sources as reputable as Agence France Presse as a “lawyer from California” but he is not listed with the California Bar Association. Little is known about him.

“One wonders whose interests are these American professors serving,” Kenyan lawyer Wagereka asked local journalists several days ago.

Back on (a wet) Track!

Back on (a wet) Track!

Now at one of my favorite Serengeti lodges, Ndutu.
Now at one of my favorite Serengeti lodges, Ndutu.
As we enter the great migration season in Tanzania everyone ready to go (including me) wants to know the state of the veld. Well – dare I suggest it? – it looks… wonderful.

I wanted to say “normal” but normal doesn’t exist, anymore, in these confused eras of global warming. But frankly that’s what 2010 looks to be: right on the charts of normalcy for the last 30 years of climate statistics.

Which makes it very abnormal for the last 3-5 years. So in that context 2010 is on target to produce the finest scenery and best game viewing in the last five years!

Mother Nature broke the 3-year “drought” as you would expect her to: grumbling and shaking off somnambulant neglect with thunderous bursts of rain which in some places, like the western and northern Serengeti, represented some of the most incredible torrents ever seen.

On Christmas Eve 1.5-1.7 inches of rain fell in one day over most of this area. For the month of December the Serengeti/Mara ecosystem experienced nearly 7.0 inches of rain. This is nearly three times “normal”.

The deluge resulted in worries that El-Nino was battering, again, and that soon the world would float away. Didn’t happen… yet, anyway. And western climate prediction centers show a real return to normal patterns for the remainder of the year.

This is my favorite area in the world. From the Talek River in the Mara to the central Steppe of Tanzania, the veld is now a deep, rich green. On the flat prairies of the Serengeti the “wet” wildflowers are all over the place:

Little white flowers looking exactly like their nickname, Tissue Paper Flower, (Cycinium tubulosum) literally cover the veld, almost like snow. Remarkably this year, they’ve even covered the veld as far north as Samburu. Unusual and rarer apricot and red versions have been reported in abundance in the Mara salient.

A bit anxious and not normally so prolific, Kenya’s national flower, The Flame Lily,(Gloriosa superba) is already standing out. (This is one of the reason locals are worried about the deluges continuing; but I think superstition is getting in the way. Lilies are tubers and build up residual nutrient stores during dry times, and these guys are just impatient to get going!)

The wildebeest migration was normal for the first time in years. Last year it lingered in the northern Serengeti (the Mara) almost until January, as the rains further south were light. But this year the great herds were well south of the Sand River by early December… just like scientific papers crunching 30 years of data say they should.

The Ewaso Nyiro River in Samburu, the Tsavo River in Tsavo, the many rivers in the Mara including the Great Mara, the many rivers in the Serengeti, and the two lakes in Ndutu (Masek and Ndutu) are all recovering, looking normal, after spurts and backups throughout December.

Grazers including all the plains antelopes are becoming fat and sassy. Browsers, especially elephant, are still struggling, searching those areas with new growth but relying on grass until it happens. Giraffe are a bit luckier, they can reach the new, high acacia shoots.

An incredible sight was reported in mid-December as Lake Manyara began to refill, and on one day, December 14, literally several hundred thousand flamingos returned. Where had they been?

European migrant birds are down in great numbers. The massive and awesome funnels of tens of thousands of Abdim storks have been seen above the crater.

Nature is balanced, and compared to what most of us felt was a stressful several years now ended, the predators thought otherwise. It was heyday for lion, hyaena, jackal, leopard and cheetah. For them the return to normal times means predation is much harder, and already camps like Governor’s in the Mara are reporting fewer cubs surviving, more internecine fighting.

The yin and yang of the veld. But I for one feel enormously relieved. There is a stress when surveying an African veld that is distressed for lack of rain unlike any other experienced in the modern world. It is a helplessness that pivots the intellect into moments of superstitious hope. That arthritic spiritual response is agonizing, and now — at least for now, it’s gone.

Sinister Tail Clippers

Sinister Tail Clippers

Poaching increases during tough economic times but is usually limited to elephants and rhino. Looks like giraffe are now being taken, too.

Wildlife officials at Arusha National Park (which is locally fondly called “giraffic park”) reported this weekend that a growing number of giraffe are being seen without tails!

Years ago when I first worked in Africa elephant hair bracelets were all the rage. I even bought them myself in the early 1970s, before elephant poaching had achieved such an insidious level. Later when we began to realize elephant were really threatened, the market turned briefly in the 1980s to giraffe hair bracelets.

I remember thinking at the time that the elephant hair was a poor man’s byproduct of the elephant hunt, but I also remember wondering if giraffe were really hunted, too. Farside cartoon material, of course: “Twili’s Twiga Barbershop”.

At the time there was only one market for giraffe hair bracelets: tourists. And there will always be a small market of tourists insensitive to the horror involved in bringing that hair to market.

Giraffe are fairly tame creatures in national parks, and especially so in Arusha. Around the Momela Gate – where the tailless giraffe are said to live – tourists have reported actually touching young giraffe. The young, especially, would be easy prey for getting their tails snipped off.

But would it really be worth it to the errant poacher? A giraffe kick – even from a youngster – is lethal.

A number of wildlife and health department officials working in the West Kilimanjaro region – the corridor between Kenya’s Amboseli national park and Tanzania’s Arusha national park – have reported whole giraffes being poached… to cure AIDS.

Apparently clever hair-tonic like salesmen are traveling in the more rural areas with concoctions of giraffe bone marrow that has achieved the reputation of being able to cure AIDS.

Tough economic times bring out the worst and the most creatively worst in all of us. So it’s likely that young giraffe aren’t having their tails snipped off – they’re being killed completely.

And so tourists blithely purchasing a giraffe hair bracelet on the streets of Arusha are supporting a much more onerous syndicate than weird tail clippers.

Nairobi Normal

Nairobi Normal

Nairobi is back to normal after a confusing afternoon of city rioting that proved less serious than first reported throughout the world.

Because the march by about 50 young Muslim youths following Friday prayers at Nairobi’s main mosque was a surprise, news reporters were not on the scene. Virtually all of the reporting came after the shots had been fired that killed between one and five people, possibly including one policeman.

Police were on the scene, and that’s the odd part of the story. Reporters usually follow police. But in this case neither local journalists or Nairobi’s most prominent foreign journalists (the BBC and Reuters) were there.

I was unable to find anyone I know who was there, so the best I can do is piece together what seems most reasonable from widely different reporting:

Wednesday following continued difficulties in getting the unwanted radical Muslim cleric Abdullah Al-Faisal deported from the country, the Muslim Human Rights Forum of Kenya announced that following Friday prayers at Nairobi’s main mosque there would be a parade of supporters across the middle of downtown Nairobi to the President’s Office to deliver a petition demanding the release of the controversial sheikh.

They asked for a permit to march from the police and were denied the permit. They did not – as has happened in the past with contentious groups – then announce the march would go on, anyway.

So a relatively small contingent of police positioned themselves in the parking lane off the main Kenyatta boulevard that cuts into the city from the big airport highway. I don’t know how small, but photographs by Capital FM’s radio station show only a single police van.

When the “small” group of marches left the mosque, which is one block south of the city market and one block east of where the police van was, the police tried to stop them. But there were too few police, so the police retreated and started firing teargas.

Demonstrators temporarily returned to the mosque, where the police followed and then surrounded with increasing numbers arriving from other parts of the city. And large numbers of anti-demonstrators began converging on the scene, especially from the City Market.

The second surge from the mosque was much larger, and this time included more prominently displayed placards and including one black flag reportedly representing Al-Shabaab, which is Al-Qaeda in Somalia and the organization with which Faisal is linked. Several marchers in the lead wore military fatigues and covered their heads with black masks, typical of jihadists.

Police retreated, again, and in the mayhem which ensued shots were fired. Police have not contended that the protestors had guns, so this would mean they shot one of their own.

Before the protestors got one block onto Kenyatta street, the now larger group of anti-demonstrators began attacking the demonstrators with knives and anything they could find lying around in the street. The battle between demonstrators and anti-demonstrators went on through the city for several hours as shops and businesses began to close up. Police had lost entire control of the battle.

One Nairobi newspaper claims that Muslim leaders from the mosque joined police in trying to quell the situation, but were unsuccessful. The Standard reported that several hours into the battle the police simply “became spectators” unable to stop the two factions from fighting.

The first march from the mosque was just after 1:30p. By 4 p.m. most of the fighting had subsided, the city center was a ghost town, and the police and shut off all access into and out of the city center. By 7 p.m. the streets were quiet but deserted, not entirely unusual for a Friday night. (Most of the entertainment areas are outside the city center.)

Kenya National Human Right Commission Vice-Chairman Hassan Omar said, “It was a simple demonstration which has turned ugly because police failed to control the crowd letting hooligans to take lead in the protest.”

Muslim groups claim that five people died and more than 20 were wounded. Police say that only two people died, and that one policeman was seriously wounded with a shot to the neck.

The Standard newspaper says that four people died; the Daily Nation says that one person died, Jeffrey Gettleman of the New York Times reported that three people had died, and the BBC reported that five people had died.

So far, the only person named dead is Ahmed Hassan Abdullahi, 25.

Nairobi Riots over Al-Faisal

Nairobi Riots over Al-Faisal

From Aljazeera -- some of the best reporting.
From Aljazeera -- some of the best reporting.

As night fell on Nairobi, Friday, the streets were quiet and five people were confirmed dead.

Below is an edited report from the BBC, but let me first complain bitterly about the NPR report. I love NPR but they continually get Africa wrong. Alone among such giants as the BBC, Reuters and Aljazeera, NPR failed to report that much of the riot was caused when Nairobi citizens started throwing stones against the Muslim demonstrators.

It seems that the police may have then sided with the much larger anti-demonstration crowd and over-reacted. But this would be typical in Nairobi. I remember during the August, 1998, bombing of the embassy. The first public action by Nairobi citizens was to burn the city mosque.

See my earlier blogs this week and last about Al-Faisal, terrorism, etc. Here are excerpts from the BBC:

At least five people have died after Kenyan police opened fire at supporters of a Jamaican-born Muslim cleric notorious for preaching racial hatred.

Faisal is in detention in Nairobi after Kenya failed to deport him.

Kenya wants to expel him citing his “terrorist history”. He was jailed for four years in the UK for soliciting the murder of Jews and Hindus.

Muslim youths began the protest match after Friday prayers at the Jamia Mosque in the centre of Kenya’s capital, Nairobi.

They wanted to present a petition to Immigration Minister Otieno Kajwang and Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s office.

But police had banned the march and intervened.

One banner read: “Release al-Faisal, he is innocent”, reports the AFP news agency.

Some reports suggest that the protesters were waving flags of Somali Islamist group al-Shabab.

Reuters news agency reports that some people joined the security forces in attacking the protesters.

The Monkey & The Fish

The Monkey & The Fish

I’ve always been skeptical about almost any type of individual charity for Africa, but billionaire do-gooders are an absolute pain in the ass.

A very close friend asked me to comment on the New Yorker’s December article by Philip Gourevitch, “The Monkey and The Fish.” It’s about Prodigy billionaire Greg Carr who according to the article is single-handedly reclaiming Mozambique’s near destroyed Gorongosa wilderness.

He is not the first untrained rich man to come to Africa to save it. Whether it is King Leopold, Sir Richard Burton or more recently, Paul Tudor Jones, I think it usually ends in disaster for Africa. There are much better ways that rich men who truly care about Africa can help it.

Bill Gates is the best example. And sorry to set the bar so high, as I realize Gates’ wealth is much greater than Carr’s. But my point is that Gates does it the right way: through a carefully created foundation that uses science, business management, and works closely with governments and long established NGO’s.

Carr is not doing such. He and renegades like Paul Tudor Jones make a bunch of money then fall passionately in love with Africa and decide they’ll go out and make everything right. Usually, everything goes terribly wrong.

As it should, frankly. What I find particularly upsetting is that the people who know better than me, scientists and managers at places like the World Wildlife Fund and Frankfurt Zoological Society, are all cowered into complacency, because they want these guys’ money. If they didn’t need it, they’d send them packing.

I have a good example of what they should do, even if they aren’t as rich as Gates.

A man as rich in his time as either Paul Tudor Jones or Greg Carr are today was New Yorker Howard Gilman. He was a good man who had to stay under the radar for a number of reasons: he was gay, he ran an international paper company that, of course, cut down trees, and he had a bickering family.

But he supplied more than 1,000 jobs to people in the Carolinas, was a responsible paper company executive, adopted Mikhail Baryshnikov when he defected from the Soviet Union and was a reliable patron of the arts.

And just as much as Jones or Carr, today, he loved Africa and he loved wildlife.

So he carefully and systematically built up a foundation which today has earned an exemplary reputation of helping Africa and wildlife.

He hired John Lukas from the Bronx Zoo years ago. John built up the White Oak Conservation Center with endowments from the Gilman foundations. John has spent more than twenty years carefully and expertly creating an organization that includes a huge conservancy on the border of Georgia and Florida, an outpost and oasis of wildlife prestige in the belabored Congo, and in the course of his career has done more for animals and Africa than Jones or Carr will ever do in a thousand life times.

Untrained, rich men, aren’t good for Africa. Africa needs outside scientists doing careful baseline research, government-to-government alliances and exchanges of aid, and mature interaction between experienced NGOs like the White Oak center.

Howard Gilman might never have felt the rush that Jones or Carr feel when a big magazine displays them as the saviors of Africa. But I can also assure you that if the next generation even finds their names in any African monograph it will be because of something horrible they did.

But the next generation will know of the Gates Foundation and the Gilman Foundation and White Oak Conservation Center, because what they’ve done, and how they’ve done it, and what will be built on top of their accomplishments will have helped Africa. It already has.

Is Terrorism Nation-Building?

Is Terrorism Nation-Building?

One of Kenya’s prominent newspapers said today that Muslim suicide bombers could be a positive force in Africa.

I’ve printed much of the Daily Nation’s article below. It’s important for westerners who perceive themselves the targets if not actual victims of suicide bombing to learn of these contra opinions. The Nation is one of Kenya’s most conservative newspapers.

A little background is required.

A huge controversy has developed in Kenya over the jailed Muslim cleric, Sheikh Abdullah al-Faisal. See my blog of January 9.

No airline will board Faisal. Kenya can’t afford to charter him back to Jamaica. Surrounding countries, including Tanzania whence he came overland about a month ago, refuse to allow him entry. For the time being, Kenya is stuck with him.

He’s been held without charges either in the airport or in a nearby prison. Muslim groups have become more active in the last few days, assembling a team of lawyers that have begun filing motions in the incredibly convoluted Kenyan court system to try to get him released.

The author of the article below, Charles Onyango-Obbo, is a salaried employee of the newspaper. He is not considered a radical.

There is much in the article with which I agree, but ultimately Onyango’s reasoning must confront a serious moral impediment that means justify the ends, the means in this case being wanton murder, and with that I can’t agree. Nor can I agree with the impoverished morality that suicide carries any sort of virtue whatever, except possibly for the individual who kills himself.

Onyango did not use any of the common arguments often purported in the Muslim world to justify Al-Qaeda type movements and terrorism in particular. He did not, for example, try to justify terror as a way of getting the west to leave the Middle East or other areas where radical Muslims believe they have a more intrinsic right to power.

The reason I find this article so fascinating is that it argues that there is value to terror, even if there is no enemy to practice it on, no oppressor. Onyango states that suicide bombers, for example, create positive dialogue and promote local peace among disparate groups. This is an argument as convoluted as the Kenyan court system.

Perhaps, the newspaper agreed to publish this article, because somehow it thought it would dampen the growing tension in Kenya between Muslim groups lobbying for Faisal’s release and those who fear him.

The motive would be good, but the effect is not. Bad arguments don’t bring peace.

Below are excerpts from Charles Onyango-Obbo’s article in the January 14, 2010, issue of Nairobi’s Daily Nation. Click here for the full article.

[Sheikh Abdullah al-]Faisal’s problems…stem from the suspicion that he might be a religious extremist.

That, in turn, seemed to have been fuelled (sic) by the Christmas incident in which the young Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, an alleged Al Qaeda operative, botched an attempt to destroy a plane carrying 290 people flying from Amsterdam to Detroit.

… It would seem, after that, suspicion heightened over every radical Islamic preacher.

The acts of people like Abdulmutallab often tar many innocent Muslims, and in some parts of the world, especially the West, Muslim has become synonymous with terrorist. Every other day, you read of stories of areas where Christians are protesting because a Muslim has moved into the neighbourhood.

But looking at suicide bombers acting in the name of radical religion from Africa, one sees more interesting things. It is heartening, in a strange way, to see an African willing to kill others for something other than his tribe, political affiliation, or personal profit.

Abdulmutallab’s action should resonate in Kenya, where following the disputed December 2007 elections, thousands of people were slaughtered and displaced because of their ethnic origin or the political party they supported. Or, better still, Rwanda where in 1994, nearly one million were killed mostly because they were Tutsi…

… Abdulmutallab was … willing to die … by being a suicide bomber. This idea of a most extreme personal sacrifice is not new in Africa, but it is not common either. …It is rare to see people in most African countries going to this extent. Apart from soldiers … we don’t usually put our necks on the line for our countries.

All this is good, for several reasons. First, religion is actually a big idea. If more of us begin to kill only for big ideas, and not small ones like tribe and who you voted for at elections, we shall see a sharp decline in violence in Africa… From Abdulmutallab’s act of terrorism might grow the first true seeds of modern patriotism in Africa.

Finally, before the Jihadists came along, there wasn’t much of a dialogue between Christians and Muslims in Africa, in part because in the countries where Muslims are a minority, they had endured a history of discrimination…

Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre in New York … Islam made its biggest effort to explain that terrorism was not in the Qur’an. It found fearful Christians, eager for reassurance, were much more willing to listen than they had been in the past.

… Muslims were energised to defend the honour of their religion against attempts to besmirch all of them… One result in countries like Uganda and Kenya is that they used it to elect more Muslims to Parliament.

Many governments in Christian-dominated countries also sought to do something they had not been serious about — Muslim representation in public life. Muslims moderates, particularly, have flourished…

Entirely by accident, radical Islam-inspired terrorism might turn out to be the best thing to happen to both Islam and the politics of many countries in Africa: It has improved inter-faith dialogue, reduced marginalisation (sic) of Muslims, given them a little more voice, and by forcing countries to rally around something other than their tribes, could do African nationalism endless good.

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Great White Thinker Eats

Great White Thinker Eats

There have been 236 great white shark attacks on humans recorded since 1876. Oh, sorry, that’s now 237.

That statement above was a part of a lengthy June, 2008, article in the Smithsonian entitled “Forget Jaws, Now it’s . . . Brains!” which also claimed that Great White approaches to humans were mostly out of “curiosity” and that really, they’re quite friendly and intelligent.

Holy Mackerel.

Yesterday, a horrible and gruesome attack by a White Shark at one of Cape Town’s most popular summer beaches was witnessed by dozens of people. A Zimbabwean holiday maker was taken by the shark when he swam out into deeper waters, alone.

Sharks have infested the South African beaches, particularly those from Durban west to Cape Town, for as long as we’ve known about the beaches and sharks. My wife’s parents lived in Durban during World War II and like the 20,000 British pensioners that live there, today, frequented the beach during summer. They claimed whenever they went swimming, there were massive hemp ropes fastened to shore poles so that people attacked had a better chance of being pulled in for rescue.

A third of the world’s Great Whites live off California, another third off Cape Town, and roughly the last third off Melbourne. This is because these are areas of deep, mostly cold ocean waters, the most fecund habitat of the sea.

In the case of South Africa, the world’s coldest ocean, the Atlantic, meets the warmest ocean, the Indian, just east of the Cape. This mix of habitats makes it remarkably nutrient rich.

Great Whites don’t approach the beaches of Australia and America like they do in Cape Town. I know just north of San Francisco I often saw smaller sharks, myself while swimming and living there, but nowhere near as many as in South Africa. At Durban, one of the world’s greatest surfing beaches, there are all sorts of precautions taken against sharks: nets, sensors, paid spotters.

Sharks and South African beaches are a way of life. And the truth is that there are few attacks compared to the hundreds of thousands of swimmers on their beaches throughout the summer – right now.

But even so, I wouldn’t invite one over for dinner. Mackerels are much more conversational.

Weather or Not?

Weather or Not?

The current deluge in Kenya is a real human tragedy, and I sympathize with many Kenyans who are furious that their official meteorological department said the rains were going to end, not continue.

I wrote a blog about it on December 11, explaining that data available from satellites which I then published as maps, suggested otherwise: that the end of December and on would be rainy.

So this untrained meteorologist (I love my remote digital indoor/outdoor weather system), did better than the Kenyan Meteorological Department!

But in deference to my colleagues, I felt I should reprint with minimum comment the remarks of Dr. Joseph Othieno which appeared in Nairobi’s Daily Nation newspaper in response to the public outcry against the government’s weather forecasting department.

Uncertainty (sic) is an uncomfortable aspect of life, but one that pushes humanity to act. To overcome it, man has sought various interventions from soothsayers, astrologers, prophets, magicians and scientists to forecast what the future holds.

And NOAA’s special African desk for weather reporting from a stationary satellite above Africa. Try this: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/

In developed countries, extreme weather conditions are accurately predicted to the day, hour, and in magnitude.

Right.

But in developing countries, this has remained a big challenge due to a number of problems that are worsened by public ignorance….

And the weathermen are a part of the public?

Forecasting … is one of the major challenges facing meteorological services… This is worsened by ignorance, technological challenges, complex physical features and lack of appropriate data.

Like how much rain fell?

A major objective of forecasting is to unmask fate and inform the current on timely strategic interventions that will mitigate the adverse events of the predicted phenomenon, by informing policies and supporting the end user of such information to adopt accordingly.

Pursuant to meteor men proclivating outside regular business hours.

It is important for all to understand what weather forecast is all about. A forecast that doesn’t translate into light but heat is useless.

This is the reason it’s darker in winter.

An accurate forecast that induces no action is worse than an inaccurate forecast with action.

Dr. Othieno, I cannot express to you how relieved I am now regarding the future not just of Kenyan meteorological forecasting, but of the country’s destiny in toto, of its unique opportunity to shine as beacon of [hot?] light in the dreaded darkness of Third World science. Did you pass you’re a-levels? Or are you, too, planning to run for Parliament?